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Boffins determine there are at least 36 other civilizations in our galaxy

Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:03 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
106150 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:03 pm
quote:

We present a cosmic perspective on the search for life and examine the likely number of Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligent (CETI) civilizations in our Galaxy by utilizing the latest astrophysical information. Our calculation involves Galactic star formation histories, metallicity distributions, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones, under specific assumptions which we describe as the Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong conditions. These assumptions are based on the one situation in which intelligent, communicative life is known to exist—on our own planet. This type of life has developed in a metal-rich environment and has taken roughly 5 Gyr to do so. We investigate the possible number of CETI civilizations based on different scenarios. At one extreme is the Weak Astrobiological Copernican scenario—such that a planet forms intelligent life sometime after 5 Gyr, but not earlier. The other is the Strong Astrobiological Copernican scenario in which life must form between 4.5 and 5.5 Gyr, as on Earth. In the Strong scenario (under the strictest set of assumptions), we find there should be at least ${36}_{-32}^{+175}$ civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit, based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio communications for this time). If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this would imply that the nearest CETI is at most ${17,000}_{-10,000}^{+33,600}$ lt-yr away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar communication impossible. Furthermore, the likelihood that the host stars for this life are solar-type stars is extremely small and most would have to be M dwarfs, which may not be stable enough to host life over long timescales. We furthermore explore other scenarios and explain the likely number of CETI there are within the Galaxy based on variations of our assumptions.


LINK
Posted by FearTheFish
Member since Dec 2007
4565 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:03 pm to
I don’t understand any of that
Posted by Kafka
I am the moral conscience of TD
Member since Jul 2007
159142 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Boffins
so you think people here know what those are?
Posted by Nono
Member since Nov 2017
4820 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:08 pm to
There was a girl in high school I would have sold my soul to spend a weekend boffin her brains out.

She got fat after having kids with 3 baby daddies and then was murdered by a boyfriend.

She never did choose men wisely.
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:08 pm to
Bowfin

Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
42962 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:11 pm to
I think these nerds are just fricking with us when they release this shite
Posted by Christopher Columbo
Member since Jun 2015
3173 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:12 pm to
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
135058 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

Boffin

Didn’t he get killed in a plane crash with Richie Valens?
Posted by Ryan3232
Valet driver for TD staff
Member since Dec 2008
28009 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:13 pm to
what the frick did i just read
Posted by MrSpock
Member since Sep 2015
5169 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

I don’t understand any of that



That's not scary. What's scary is that there are an estimated 100 Billion Galaxies.

This post was edited on 7/3/20 at 5:20 pm
Posted by OBReb6
Memphissippi
Member since Jul 2010
41553 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:14 pm to
Copy and paste of raw excel formulas
Posted by Sentrius
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
64757 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

We present a cosmic perspective on the search for life and examine the likely number of Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligent (CETI) civilizations in our Galaxy by utilizing the latest astrophysical information. Our calculation involves Galactic star formation histories, metallicity distributions, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones, under specific assumptions which we describe as the Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong conditions. These assumptions are based on the one situation in which intelligent, communicative life is known to exist—on our own planet. This type of life has developed in a metal-rich environment and has taken roughly 5 Gyr to do so. We investigate the possible number of CETI civilizations based on different scenarios. At one extreme is the Weak Astrobiological Copernican scenario—such that a planet forms intelligent life sometime after 5 Gyr, but not earlier. The other is the Strong Astrobiological Copernican scenario in which life must form between 4.5 and 5.5 Gyr, as on Earth. In the Strong scenario (under the strictest set of assumptions), we find there should be at least ${36}_{-32}^{+175}$ civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit, based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio communications for this time). If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this would imply that the nearest CETI is at most ${17,000}_{-10,000}^{+33,600}$ lt-yr away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar communication impossible. Furthermore, the likelihood that the host stars for this life are solar-type stars is extremely small and most would have to be M dwarfs, which may not be stable enough to host life over long timescales. We furthermore explore other scenarios and explain the likely number of CETI there are within the Galaxy based on variations of our assumptions.


Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
45439 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:19 pm to
hoping for a low gravity planet, so the average boiled crab is around 8 pounds.
Posted by sand mountainDvalues
Member since Oct 2018
8718 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:24 pm to
Bet alien pussie is next level
Posted by blueridgeTiger
Granbury, TX
Member since Jun 2004
22418 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:27 pm to
How much grant money did they get to come up with this shite?
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24880 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:28 pm to
Probably get that space STD
Posted by Kcrad
Diamondhead
Member since Nov 2010
68570 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:41 pm to
quote:

hoping for a low gravity planet, so the average boiled crab is around 8 pounds.



You need to calibrate your gravity.
Posted by Tbonepatron
Member since Aug 2013
8462 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:47 pm to
36 other civilizations and they are all still trying to figure out what’s up our asses...
Posted by GoldenGuy
Member since Oct 2015
12798 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:49 pm to
But will they all die of Covid like the War of the Worlds aliens?
Posted by olgoi khorkhoi
priapism survivor
Member since May 2011
17111 posts
Posted on 7/3/20 at 5:54 pm to
The Mormons were right all along
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