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Message
re: Bloomberg: Big Oil Goes Looking for a Career Change
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:53 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:53 pm to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
Y'all wait and see. Battery technology is going to take off over the next decade making it a much easier choice for consumers to choose electric over gas.
If you say so
1
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:54 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Charging a model X tesla @ 11.5kW from empty to full takes about 11.5 hours (30mi/hr with 350 mile range).
A good solar panel will make about 15W per square foot. Football field is 57,600 sq ft. So a whole football field of solar panels could theoretically make 864kW. So while an extreme example, you could in fact charge your tesla with a solar panel football field.
Taking it to the other direction: 25 sq foot of solar panel would be enough to sustain the average commuter.
That’s just a little bigger than the standard house door.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:58 pm to LSUlefty
Yea we have to do something other than Nicad/lithium/etc. Mining those minerals is very destructive. Lead/acid weighs a ton. Theres no real answer right now to replace 30 gallons of gas for stored energy.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 6:01 pm to lowhound
quote:
refineries converting to Biodiesel
Two small ones on liberal west coast. Marathon near SF I believe and Shell Martinez? Both well under 200k barrels per day. Those are rather small refineries.
HFC Cheyenne refinery is only 55k barrels or so, which is super tiny.
For comparison Marathon Garyville or Exxon BR are pushing 600k barrels/day.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 6:48 pm to castorinho
quote:
Oil, the commodity is not going anywhere anytime soon.
But investing your money O&G companies right is not bright.
This is the thing people don’t seem to understand when these oil & gas topics come up. Everyone with a shred of knowledge about the industry knows oil & gas will be around for a long time. But that’s not really the question to ask. The real question is how the O&G companies will fare.
When the Saudis flooded the market and the supply glut hit in ‘14, the price of oil dropped from $110/bbl to $30-40. At the time, I was all but certain we would see $100+ oil again in the next 5-10 years. That was the conventional wisdom in the industry - “boom and bust” - and many of us didn’t realize how crazy it was that oil got to $110 in the first place.
In hindsight it really might have been a sea change for the industry. Before 2014, it was just an exploration game. The steps were: find oil, drill production well, profit. For proof, look no further than McMoRan’s $1.2B Davy Jones debacle. They didn’t care how expensive it was to drill the wells - they knew if they could produce oil (they couldn’t), it would be profitable.
The explosion of shale production has changed that. And after 6+ years of lower oil prices, it seems pretty clear that shale will continue to be the swing producer. So now the name of the game is efficiency, and lower profit margins will stick around for the foreseeable future.
So while I don’t think it’s likely that EV’s will have a majority of the global market share any time soon (meaning 15-20+ years, IMO), I do think the O&G producers’ license to print money has expired permanently. XOM is no longer the blue chip stock it once was. Employment in the industry will continue to fall/stagnate. It doesn’t mean O&G is going away. Just means that big oil’s best years are likely behind them.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 6:58 pm to ThreauxDown
quote:
If anything, more electric cars means higher natural gas demand and lower gasoline demand. Which also means higher electric bills and lower gasoline prices
While true, this isn’t necessarily a good thing for the majors. Shell has tried to position themselves for this trend with their purchase of BG, divestments from refineries, and investments in LNG. They also have a ton of shale gas assets in the US. But Exxon would get killed by a large scale switch from gasoline to nat gas right now.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the majors try to position themselves over the next 10 years or so.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:08 pm to lowhound
quote:
Phillips is doing the same at it's huge refineries in California.
Even without covid that was a possibility.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:09 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Why wouldn't nuclear be the better option when we already have nuclear propulsion in Navy ships?
Because you’d have to arm them like navy ships
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:17 pm to lostinbr
quote:
The real question is how the O&G companies will fare.
When the Saudis flooded the market and the supply glut hit in ‘14, the price of oil dropped from $110/bbl to $30-40. At the time, I was all but certain we would see $100+ oil again in the next 5-10 years. That was the conventional wisdom in the industry - “boom and bust” - and many of us didn’t realize how crazy it was that oil got to $110 in the first place.
In hindsight it really might have been a sea change for the industry. Before 2014, it was just an exploration game. The steps were: find oil, drill production well, profit. For proof, look no further than McMoRan’s $1.2B Davy Jones debacle. They didn’t care how expensive it was to drill the wells - they knew if they could produce oil (they couldn’t), it would be profitable.
The explosion of shale production has changed that. And after 6+ years of lower oil prices, it seems pretty clear that shale will continue to be the swing producer. So now the name of the game is efficiency, and lower profit margins will stick around for the foreseeable future.
So while I don’t think it’s likely that EV’s will have a majority of the global market share any time soon (meaning 15-20+ years, IMO), I do think the O&G producers’ license to print money has expired permanently. XOM is no longer the blue chip stock it once was. Employment in the industry will continue to fall/stagnate. It doesn’t mean O&G is going away. Just means that big oil’s best years are likely behind them.
Absolutely correct and perfectly nuanced take.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:20 pm to rickgrimes
No. This is what execs do during a small downturn. They drive down the stock price so they cab grab more for themselves Or as part of a buyback.
They wrote the same articles before the shale boom
They wrote the same articles before the shale boom
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:21 pm to michael corleone
quote:
Soon as Covid ends and people are driving again, demand will go up and so will prices. There aren’t 5% electric or LNG vehicles on the road all of a sudden. People have not driven very much since March. There was a supply glut at that time and an additional market flood by Russia. Oil isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
There is a decent amount of business related travel that is simply never coming back.
As for those buying XOM at $40, better hope that dividend doesn’t get cut.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:37 pm to jimbeam
quote:
Powered by electricity created by gas fired plants, via batteries created by gas fired equipment
Just wait until one of these “green energy” mines has a massive spill. But it’ll be in some 3rd world country so it won’t really matter.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:02 pm to rickgrimes
quote:
Most senior executives simply don’t believe hydrocarbon prices will ever come back to the above-$100-a-barrel days for any sustained period. And the social, and investor, pressure to tackle climate change is unlikely to abate.
This is just BS. 15 years ago they said we’d never see below $80bbl again!!! Peak oil, etc... seriously I’ll take this with a grain of salt. Oil isn’t going anywhere and will continue to be dominant.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:07 pm to rickgrimes
You really have to love Tigerdroppings. The guy who runs the 5th largest oil company in the world says that oil demand is fading and this board says he doesn't know what he is talking about. Jesus H Christ.
Travel accounts for 65% of oil use. EV will cut into that market every year from now on. The world will need less oil every year going forward. US Shale is in trouble, bigly trouble. It won't go away totally but I expect a massive scale down and maybe 10-20 operators in two years in the US.
XOM is going to $20 when they cut their dividend.
Travel accounts for 65% of oil use. EV will cut into that market every year from now on. The world will need less oil every year going forward. US Shale is in trouble, bigly trouble. It won't go away totally but I expect a massive scale down and maybe 10-20 operators in two years in the US.
quote:
And there is still a weekly thread on the Money Board whether XOM is a buy at <$40. Talk about having one's head in the sand...
XOM is going to $20 when they cut their dividend.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:23 pm to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
crazyLSUstudent
Checks out. Please tell me what type of batteries they will be using? Lithium? Limited supply already stretched.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:24 pm to rickgrimes
I have been using the Kirkland avocado oil
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:28 pm to rickgrimes
quote:
Bloomberg: Big Oil Goes Looking for a Career Change
A friend and manager of an exploration group in a UK based energy company told me recently that BP is going to discontinue exploration for oil and gas resources and focus on renewable energy. They will take their large reserve base and use the proceeds from production to fund the renewable possibilities. So yes it looks very much like these large petroleum companies or going to deplete themselves into a green energy model. It may be time for young professionals in these companies to look at other career possibilities as that business is going to look very different in 20 years.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:34 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:Direct result of US using its own natural resources instead of buying from countries that want to kill us all.
I mean, you know it's time to get out of big oil when Saudi Arabia is selling Saudi Aramco and getting out of the oil business.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:35 pm to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
O&G is going to get hammered over the next 10 years as more and more electric vehicles come online
Sure they are people are gonna love those electric cars that go 300-400 miles and you have to stop to charge for a couple hours then after 5 years they can only go half as far before needing a charge. Think cellphone baw buy you a $50k car that only last 5-8 years sounds wonderful.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:48 pm to lostinbr
You are right in a sense but you picked the wrong example. All the McMoran big shelf wells were targeting shallow water ultra deep gas, which they found. Problem is they couldn't produce it with the technology available at the time and gas wasn't worth shite.
It was Jim Bob Moffits doing and pretty much solely his.
And XOM will definitely cut the dividend.
It was Jim Bob Moffits doing and pretty much solely his.
And XOM will definitely cut the dividend.
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