re: Bloomberg: Big Oil Goes Looking for a Career Change

Energy is everything. Don't count them out.

Will take a decade to move away from oil, if we ever do. Don't bet on it anytime soon.

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It will easily take 20+ years for electric vehicles to have a 30-40% market share.

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They are not even 2% and they have already been around for a decade. The current fundamental design is not compatible with the consumer needs. People did not switch to the combustion engine because it was good for horse it was because it was more convenient, affordable, and reliable. Electric cars are smaller, more expensive, and won’t last 15-20 years on average. The common consumer is not going to be buying an electric car in the next decade until these issues are resolved.

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Electric cars are smaller, more expensive, and won’t last 15-20 years on average. The common consumer is not going to be buying an electric car in the next decade until these issues are resolved.

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I agree. It's still a niche market. A lot of people don't have the ability to charge at home etc and the infrastructure is still pretty poor outside of major cities.

Vehicles don't have short replacement cycles either. Most of the vehicles sold in the next 5 years will still be on the road in 15 years.

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Vehicles don't have short replacement cycles either. Most of the vehicles sold in the next 5 years will still be on the road in 15 years.

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Funny you should mention this. I read earlier today that the average age of vehicles on the road in the US is at an all time high of 11.9 years. 25% of cars and light trucks on the road are >16 years old. Graph from last year’s report, but the trend is clear:



It’s kind of funny because there are a lot of people who erroneously believe vehicle quality has fallen in the last few decades. The reality is the opposite - vehicles last longer than ever now. New vehicle sales accounted for ~6% of vehicles on the road last year, and are expected to fall to 5% this year.

That means that if pure EV’s made up 100% of all new vehicle sales right now, AND they stayed on the road just as long as gasoline vehicles, it would still take 10+ years for them to make up more than 50% of cars on the road.

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They are cheap because we can so easily extract it now.

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It’s easy to extract if you like lighting money on fire.

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It’s kind of funny because there are a lot of people who erroneously believe vehicle quality has fallen in the last few decades. The reality is the opposite - vehicles last longer than ever now.

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Finding vehicle quality rankings are starting to become increasingly worthless for this reason.

Even the worst ranked cars aren't really that bad.

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Where ya think that battery power is coming from ya dummy?

Wind

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About 25% and growing in TX.

People that doubt there’s a change coming need to drive across the SW.

I know that solar companies and speculators are buying cheap farmland along the coast.

Nearly every big energy PE firm now has an energy transition fund.

My thoughts as well. The US energy innovation (horizontal drilling/fracking) that made shale plays economical also created the supply issues that will change the industry forever.