re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?

frick all of this, this has my Houston arse puckered

NHC forecaster Berg going in first person for the discussion.

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As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt.

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Rare.

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NHC seeing the turn to the N. Then NE?

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Getting late in September for there not to be a little trough to kick it that direction.

Was kinda hoping it get into Texas after getting weakened a little by the front this weekend. Figure that's still on the board but like I said earlier, this isn't the time of year I like storms to my SW.

Just got this on tropical tidbits. Don’t know how recent it is

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Just got this on tropical tidbits. Don’t know how recent it is

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There's a penis in there, for sure.

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Getting late in September for there not to be a little trough to kick it that direction.

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Yea, I mentioned that the other day.

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The system looks to potentially be in the vicinity of the yellow circle in the 6-10 day range, if it forms. That could be an area of weak steering. Models are showing a ridge over the top and the Atlantic ridge nosing into the WCAB. Will there be any small disturbances under the northern ridge to lift a system out? Will the ridge in the WCAB be strong enough to push this into Mexico? For this time of year, climo is sort of a mixed bag with some systems coming out of the BOC and others getting pushed into Mexico.

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Obviously, the 5-day mean smooths things out too much.

The 12z Euro is showing a subtle s/w coming in but, also, the weakness to the East being just enough to keep the system from getting pushed into Texas.

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Eff me. I just read about miniswirls and small vortices in the eyewall where winds can be much greater than the air around it. Unreal.

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Yeah. Those can cause unexplainable physics like this...

Twisting and bending over large pine trees without breaking them




...or pushing steel I-Beams like they’re paper clips...




Since we’ve came back home, we’ve seen things that we just can’t explain.

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The 12z Euro is showing a subtle s/w coming in but, also, the weakness to the East being just enough to keep the system from getting pushed into Texas.

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Just makes a lot of sense for the time of year and getting our first "cold" front in this weekend supports the idea of starting to get some disturbances coming off the Rockies and into the southern plains.

Obviously just going to watch how the modeling trends with that s/w. Should hopefully put some shear on it too if this scenario is what materializes.

So the watch beings...again.

It's rarely good for people when I find myself in TD this much.

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Since we’ve came back home, we’ve seen things that we just can’t explain.

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Mesovorticies do some wild stuff and you don't tend to get them unless you have a powerful and strengthening near landfall hurricane. Given that's what happened in LC, I bet y'all had a few rolling through there. Some chasers that night caught one on video I think or at least have data showing one.

Hope yall are holding up well in the cleanup. Been thinking about y'all between dodging hurricanes out east.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GBlack22wx/status/1306771465820405761/photo/1

The models I looked at earlier seemed to show a lot of potential dry air out in front of this system so even if it does loop around hopefully it gets lots of dry air to fight off then we just need to hope it doesn't linger around for long to dump water.

In that official track there it's even weakening so hopefully intensity is at least not that great.