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Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:06 am to rds dc
Damn, that means a lot of rain.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:08 am to loogaroo
12z ICON is insistent on that Galveston up the LA/TX stateline track.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:08 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’ve seen some videos claiming the GFS has been the primary indicator for landfall but that it’s been inaccurate. The videos have said to use the ICON which has been forecasting a closer-to-Houston landfall all along. Any validity to these claims?
Without knowing who you’re talking about, that just sounds like someone throwing shite against the wall looking for clicks.
If you were to use the ICON the past few days, you’d have been thinking it was a SWLA landfall.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:09 am to rds dc
Deterministics all are inside of Texas now.
OT really nailed this one.
OT really nailed this one.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:20 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’ve seen some videos claiming the GFS has been the primary indicator for landfall but that it’s been inaccurate. The videos have said to use the ICON which has been forecasting a closer-to-Houston landfall all along. Any validity to these claims?
The Euro has been trash b/c it's been too weak. The GFS has been middle of the road bad. The ICON has been the most consistent with a Texas landfall. However, it's hard to say if that is "right for the wrong reasons" or a model success story.
For hurricane forecasting, the global models don't have the resolution to handle storm scale issues with tropical systems. The globals are mostly useful for steering, shear, upper air patterns, etc. You wouldn't typically rely on a global model forecast track, but you would use the output of a global to generate a forecast track.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:20 am to rds dc
Louisiana now in the cone 
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:22 am to Mr Roboto
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/12/25 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:24 am to Odysseus32
How did Cancun make out? We have a week long trip beginning on the 17th of July.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:32 am to rds dc
Beryl appears to be tracking on the righthand side of the 06z guidance envelope. Ensemble members in that cluster take the system a ways up the Texas Coast.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:38 am to rds dc
Space City Weather guys went from last two days of “no worries in Houston” to today’s “watch this more closely.”
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:38 am to rds dc
quote:
The Euro has been trash b/c it's been too weak. The GFS has been middle of the road bad. The ICON has been the most consistent with a Texas landfall. However, it's hard to say if that is "right for the wrong reasons" or a model success story.
Does any of this have to do with how “early” the storm was for the Caribbean and the lack of historical data for the area?
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:40 am to BigBinBR
No it was a typo.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:49 am to rds dc
What, if any, atmospheric conditions exist that can operate to keep the storm from Rapid Intensification, as it passes Yucatan and travels back into the Gulf on its way to its landfall?
Thanks.
Thanks.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:49 am to rds dc
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:59 am to rds dc
I don't like how they keep moving up the Intensification timing.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:00 am to LegendInMyMind
I don’t like that cone coming more in my direction.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:02 am to LegendInMyMind
Are conditions in the Gulf favorable for Rapid Intensification? If so, the, it will rapidly intensify and continue to curve towards Galveston Bay and the Tx-La state line.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:02 am to deltaland
quote:
Reading this and the fact the scientific models kept initializing the storm much weaker than the NHC was claiming makes the conspiracy theory side of me wonder if it ever really was a Cat 5. Election year and the left needs to push climate fear so maybe the govt leaned on the NHC to overblow it in order to get the “record setting storm” talking points
Nah. It was a legit beast and earned it.
Now, if you want to redirect this energy toward the 75mph Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Idalia making landfall last year in the Big Bend of Florida I'd consider throwing my support behind you.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:11 am to Champagne
quote:BINGO!!!
favorable for Rapid Intensification
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