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Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:02 am to Chingon Ag
quote:
Seems like Austin and San Antonio might be on the dry side if it moves forward in the path from the latest projection.
Nah....
NHC has it to our SSW (just S of San Antonio) at 1 AM Tue and 24 hours later it will have only moved to basically directly over Austin at 1 AM Wed.
GFS has the track a little further West than NHC, but if I move their rain forecast to the West, then we'd get somewhere around 6-10" of rain in the Austin suburbs.
It gon' rain.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:03 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Nah....
NHC has it to our SSW (just S of San Antonio) at 1 AM Tue and 24 hours later it will have only moved to basically directly over Austin at 1 AM Wed.
GFS has the track a little further West than NHC, but if I move their rain forecast to the West, then we'd get somewhere around 6-10" of rain in the Austin suburbs.
It gon' rain.
I hope those projections are correct. We need the rain in a bad way.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:04 am to BigBinBR
SA and Austin drain unlike Houston, in SA the low areas around certain creeks get flooded for a day or so and then the water drains off to the south. Unless 30+" of rain falls like in 02 I wouldn't expect a big flooding issue. Austin might be different now given the growth up there, haven't seen a major flooding event up there in a couple decades that I can remember so you knows given all the new concrete.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:05 am to Chingon Ag
quote:
We need the rain in a bad way.
Yes, sir. That is for sure.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:13 am to TxWadingFool
quote:
SA and Austin drain unlike Houston, in SA the low areas around certain creeks get flooded for a day or so and then the water drains off to the south. Unless 30+" of rain falls like in 02 I wouldn't expect a big flooding issue. Austin might be different now given the growth up there, haven't seen a major flooding event up there in a couple decades that I can remember so you knows given all the new concrete.
Yep.
Austin got pummeled not too long ago with a really bad Spring storm that dropped a ton of rain quickly, but it was the usual places that flooded.
Most all LSU folks in Austin know Shoal Creek Saloon, and that place ALWAYS floods when we get bad rains...because of Shoal Creek. We just don't see the extensive flooding that Houston gets, as we have more elevation changes, and the streams/creeks we do have are not like the spider web of waterways that Houston has, so there's not as many places for those waterways to connect and create more issues.
For Austin, you essentially have to be directly on a waterway to feel the wrath.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:16 am to TxWadingFool
If it rains 6 inches in an hour, it’ll flood anywhere. You start getting that in the hills and on places with a lot of rock, someone will have a lot of water to deal with. All 3 of those areas have had tremendous development growth over the last decade.
The lakes and springs of central texas need a good soaking though. Many are at historical lows.
The lakes and springs of central texas need a good soaking though. Many are at historical lows.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:25 am to Mr Sausage
We need the rain in south Texas. Fill the lakes up in time for duck season.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:26 am to Mr Sausage
quote:
The lakes and springs of central texas need a good soaking though. Many are at historical lows.
Correct, and most people just don't get the flow of water in CenTex. For Lake Travis to fill, then we need Fredericksburg and Johnson City to get drilled, as that feeds the Pedernales, which then feeds Lake Travis.
Lake Buck, LBJ, and Marble Falls are all pretty good right now thanks to the rains back in May. Unfortunately, the Hill Country did not get the same rains.
Austin getting pummeled really only benefits those downstream...
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:29 am to RummelTiger
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
7 am. Just N of Playa del Carmen. Rainy. There’s spotty wind damage—a couple of smashed power poles, a collapsed facade, some trees down—but overall, #BERYL was an unraveling mess, and I was surprised the landfall intensity was 95 knots. I believe the strongest winds I experienced were in the eye—perhaps the remnant circulation from the collapsed inner eyewall. This junk storm makes 71 career hurricane core penetrations for me. I’m glad for #Mexico. P.S. No data to report yet—I still need to go back and collect the devices I deployed.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:30 am to RummelTiger
Need about 30" in Bandera to fill up Medina.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:35 am to LegendInMyMind
We had our honeymoon in Playa del Carmen. Hope the Viceroy Riviera Maya is okay!
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:36 am to RummelTiger
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:38 am to RummelTiger
We’re not allowed to walk around outside but from the looks of it we’re good. Police are the only ones out right now. Wife just put breakfast in the oven, thankfully the gas is still on.
I can only get TD to load.
I can only get TD to load.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:39 am to rds dc
quote:
Also, as it turns north there appears to be the potential for a favorable interaction with the trough over Texas.
Still timing questions to be answered for both Beryl and the trough, but a period of RI before landfall is in the cards. Especially if Beryl takes a track, which results in more time spent over water.
Any tracks to the right to the black line could be big trouble.
06z Euro EPS
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:40 am to TxWadingFool
quote:
Need about 30" in Bandera to fill up Medina.
Our kid camps on Lake Travis and some of the sights while dropping her off last week week were brutal. Some fingers of the lake have been so dry for so long now...I mean I guess it can come back, but I think some parts are changed forever moving forward, so now you just see floating docks sitting on dry land. It would take a staggering amount to fill up everything on Travis.
Can't imagine how bad that must suck for those people that once had amazing lake property.
Hope y'all get a good soaking but that also nobody get killed.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:40 am to rds dc
Well shite.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:41 am to RummelTiger
Forecast rainfall totals don't look too awful. Most rural spots would handle this ok. Of course, 7" in 6 hours in urban areas is no picnic.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:43 am to LSUJuice
I will take that if it holds.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 8:46 am to rds dc
quote:
Still timing questions to be answered for both Beryl and the trough, but a period of RI before landfall is in the cards. Especially if Beryl takes a track, which results in more time spent over water.
After some storms over the past few years, any forecast that calls for strengthening into landfall has to be at least some cause for concern.
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 8:47 am
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