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Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:23 pm to StonewallJack
00Z GFS middle Texas coast as weak tropical storm, 00Z CMC Mexico
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:28 pm to tunechi
quote:
Is there another thread for 96L?
I know it’s all eyes on Beryl right now but I just wanna know what that sneaky little bitch is up to too
It’s been hard to find info on 96L since Beryl blew up. Flying into Punta Cana on Friday so I’ve been trying to track it on my own online. Tropical Tidbits has a new run out as of an hour or so ago. Heading straight for Jamaica also but more than a few have it just north enough to screw up our vacation plans. We are 50/50 right now on if we get on the plane this Friday.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:28 pm to lsuman25
Both runs are 30+mb off the initialization. Still can’t figure out why they keep struggling
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:35 pm to SWLA92
Not only that the GFS has Beryl at 974MB for 1 am tonight
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:47 pm to lsuman25
Yep not even in the same ballpark
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:04 am to SWLA92
Resolution issue. Small core, too small for the global models to resolve. End up with higher pressure.
And yeah, it matters. This has most likely put most of the guidance a little too far south.
And yeah, it matters. This has most likely put most of the guidance a little too far south.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:08 am to Duke
Crazy enough the ICON has had the best initialization of the models.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:21 am to SWLA92
Aftermath of Beryl on Carriacou
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:34 am to Mr Roboto
quote:
Don’t look at the 0z ICON my LA baws
Welp here we go I guess. Hold on to yer butts.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:51 am to Honest Tune
...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...
2:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 14.2°N 65.8°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
2:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 14.2°N 65.8°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:00 am to lsuman25
GFS said pressure suppose to rise at 1am Beryl said hold my pressure GFS.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:01 am to lsuman25
So I was supposed to leave for Jamaica on Saturday to the Montego Bay area. I'm guessing that's canceled right?

Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:23 am to Mikes My Tiger
Yeah that's canceled, but Biloxi may be a good plan B.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:05 am to lsuman25
165 mph Max Sustained winds
I don't remember seeing that high of a sustained wind listed in a NHC report before.
I wonder what the all time high recorded sustained winds in the Atlantic is? .....or the Pacific all time high?
I don't remember seeing that high of a sustained wind listed in a NHC report before.
I wonder what the all time high recorded sustained winds in the Atlantic is? .....or the Pacific all time high?
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:06 am
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:17 am to Gene Heinous
In the Atlantic basin
1980 Hurricane Allen was #1 reaching 190mph
1988 Gilbert topped out at 185mph
2005 Wilma also 185 mph ...Lowest pressure 882mbs/26.05!
......Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 @ 185mph
2017 Dorian 185 mph stalled in northern Bahamas
1998 Hurricane Mitch was 180mph...Highest rain totals 75 inches
2005 Rita 180mph ...Lowest pressure in Gulf (895mbs/ 26.43)
1969 Camille 175mph ; i've seen it higher
2005 Katrina was up to 175 mph in the middle of the Gulf
2004 Ivan the Terrible got up to 165mph
1980 Hurricane Allen was #1 reaching 190mph
1988 Gilbert topped out at 185mph
2005 Wilma also 185 mph ...Lowest pressure 882mbs/26.05!
......Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 @ 185mph
2017 Dorian 185 mph stalled in northern Bahamas
1998 Hurricane Mitch was 180mph...Highest rain totals 75 inches
2005 Rita 180mph ...Lowest pressure in Gulf (895mbs/ 26.43)
1969 Camille 175mph ; i've seen it higher
2005 Katrina was up to 175 mph in the middle of the Gulf
2004 Ivan the Terrible got up to 165mph
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:36 am
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:27 am to Gene Heinous
Post season analysis has Hurrican Patricia in the Eastern Pacific at 215 mph sustained winds with a lowest pressure of 872mb.
It was listed at 200 mph at one point but was later ugraded even more post season.
Hurricane Patricia

It was listed at 200 mph at one point but was later ugraded even more post season.
Hurricane Patricia

This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:31 am
Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:54 am to TrigSwig
quote:
There goes the rest of the Louisiana Homeowners insurance writers after this season. Local housing market will be in the shitter. People will exit, rightfully so.
Well the way most policies are written now, any damage short of a complete loss or major damage, you are pretty much on your own with 5 figure storm deductibles.
I wouldn’t cry too much about the insurance carriers and their highly paid spokespeople.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 4:46 am to Tarps99
Um holy shite new recon is finding 159Kt winds
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