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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:22 pm to
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46336 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:22 pm to
quote:

It's the newest sandals resort on the island, hoping the building codes are quite strenuous


Negril or Ocho Rios?
Either way, you need to get off that island right now.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:23 pm to
00Z GFS middle Texas coast as weak tropical storm, 00Z CMC Mexico
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46336 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:28 pm to
quote:


Is there another thread for 96L?
I know it’s all eyes on Beryl right now but I just wanna know what that sneaky little bitch is up to too


It’s been hard to find info on 96L since Beryl blew up. Flying into Punta Cana on Friday so I’ve been trying to track it on my own online. Tropical Tidbits has a new run out as of an hour or so ago. Heading straight for Jamaica also but more than a few have it just north enough to screw up our vacation plans. We are 50/50 right now on if we get on the plane this Friday.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5016 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:28 pm to
Both runs are 30+mb off the initialization. Still can’t figure out why they keep struggling
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:35 pm to
Not only that the GFS has Beryl at 974MB for 1 am tonight
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5016 posts
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:47 pm to
Yep not even in the same ballpark
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:04 am to
Resolution issue. Small core, too small for the global models to resolve. End up with higher pressure.

And yeah, it matters. This has most likely put most of the guidance a little too far south.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5016 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:08 am to
Crazy enough the ICON has had the best initialization of the models.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46336 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:21 am to
Aftermath of Beryl on Carriacou

Posted by Honest Tune
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2011
19285 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:34 am to
quote:

Don’t look at the 0z ICON my LA baws


Welp here we go I guess. Hold on to yer butts.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:51 am to
...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...
2:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 14.2°N 65.8°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:00 am to
GFS said pressure suppose to rise at 1am Beryl said hold my pressure GFS.
Posted by Mikes My Tiger
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2007
3014 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:01 am to
So I was supposed to leave for Jamaica on Saturday to the Montego Bay area. I'm guessing that's canceled right?
Posted by TrigSwig
Member since May 2024
331 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:23 am to
Yeah that's canceled, but Biloxi may be a good plan B.
Posted by Gene Heinous
the Pleasure Dome
Member since Sep 2021
768 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:05 am to
165 mph Max Sustained winds

I don't remember seeing that high of a sustained wind listed in a NHC report before.

I wonder what the all time high recorded sustained winds in the Atlantic is? .....or the Pacific all time high?

This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:06 am
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
9171 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:17 am to
In the Atlantic basin

1980 Hurricane Allen was #1 reaching 190mph

1988 Gilbert topped out at 185mph
2005 Wilma also 185 mph ...Lowest pressure 882mbs/26.05!
......Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 @ 185mph
2017 Dorian 185 mph stalled in northern Bahamas

1998 Hurricane Mitch was 180mph...Highest rain totals 75 inches
2005 Rita 180mph ...Lowest pressure in Gulf (895mbs/ 26.43)

1969 Camille 175mph ; i've seen it higher
2005 Katrina was up to 175 mph in the middle of the Gulf

2004 Ivan the Terrible got up to 165mph
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:36 am
Posted by grif82
Member since Aug 2008
8173 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:27 am to
Post season analysis has Hurrican Patricia in the Eastern Pacific at 215 mph sustained winds with a lowest pressure of 872mb.

It was listed at 200 mph at one point but was later ugraded even more post season.

Hurricane Patricia





This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:31 am
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:53 am to
When's the next update?
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12599 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:54 am to
quote:

There goes the rest of the Louisiana Homeowners insurance writers after this season. Local housing market will be in the shitter. People will exit, rightfully so.


Well the way most policies are written now, any damage short of a complete loss or major damage, you are pretty much on your own with 5 figure storm deductibles.

I wouldn’t cry too much about the insurance carriers and their highly paid spokespeople.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 4:46 am to
Um holy shite new recon is finding 159Kt winds
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