re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

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High pressure sitting on top of the gulf states. It’s going through Mexico

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas

I really hesitate to post this, but I want to provide some context, both good and bad for our area. I know this model run will make the rounds, so let's discuss.

First off, global models are bad with the intensity of hurricanes. Intensity has a big impact on track forecasts for hurricanes. This morning, most ensembles drove Beryl into Mexico on a double landfall, but the trend has been north all day. Once we hit critical mass, and this thing gets far enough north (if it gets far enough north) it will start to feel more influence from an upper level disturbance that will weaken the ridge of high pressure across our area by this weekend. Beryl has been on the north side of guidance most of the day, and it seems models are starting to ingest this into their forecasts. A stronger system would tend to move more toward the north, and they don't get much stronger than Beryl. I stand by my earlier statement that I'll know a lot more by late tomorrow and Wednesday. For now, I'll say there is at least some chance for local impacts, though I still lean toward this staying south of us. If my concern level was a 1 out of 10, it's now a 2 out of 10. It's not bad, but it's not trending in the right direction.

This post is not just about this run, but this run provides a good visual of the spread I'm seeing across different sets of models. I'll be live in the morning with a fresh look at models, and will have a video update around 9:00 AM. *IF* this were to be a local issue, we are talking Sunday or Monday. Remember, we are not perfect a day out. If we are 6-7 days out, we are all sorts of not perfect. Tom and I are on top of every piece of data you can imagine, so we will tell you when it's time to prepare. As of now, this just shows me that we need to be prepared for a busy season. I'll update in the morning.

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