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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:11 pm to sledgehammer
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:11 pm to sledgehammer
Plenty of those.
0
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:13 pm to alphaandomega
My sis said they are closing the hospitals in corpus and they have made visitors evacuate. She said they all the sudden got concerned even tho the track went more north of corpus.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:13 pm to Mr Sausage
It’s still moving NW. It’s expected to turn NNW in 12 hours then generally N after 24 hours for landfall. Current consensus is into Matagorda Bay but that’s after a tick north all day. From the 00z runs that might continue a little bit into the morning putting it into Matagorda County.
Not a lot of ridge left to push it west and the trough is digging across the central Us pulling it north.
One thing that will impact landfall is center consolidation overnight as Beryl tries to strengthen. It will wobble west or north depending on where the center deepens. The N/S orientation of the Texas coast can turn a wobble either way into a big change in landfall, and the compact storm means a change in landfall can have a big impact on severity where you are. Especially if Beryl makes landfall to your north or east, greatly reducing impacts.
Not a lot of ridge left to push it west and the trough is digging across the central Us pulling it north.
One thing that will impact landfall is center consolidation overnight as Beryl tries to strengthen. It will wobble west or north depending on where the center deepens. The N/S orientation of the Texas coast can turn a wobble either way into a big change in landfall, and the compact storm means a change in landfall can have a big impact on severity where you are. Especially if Beryl makes landfall to your north or east, greatly reducing impacts.
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:14 pm to LegendInMyMind
Legend, what caused all that convection to dissipate? Shear?
Sorry if it’s been covered. Been working all gaddamned day.
Sorry if it’s been covered. Been working all gaddamned day.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:14 pm to KemoSabe65
quote:
75% of Louisiana's population and tax base lives on or under I10, now who’s subsidizing who?
Did I say south of I10? No, I said south of 90. Ya know that place where literally everything populated is surrounded by levees.
Dont pretend an ice storm or rare tornado is driving up premiums compared to multiple hurricanes and storm surge.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:17 pm to jcaz
quote:
Did I say south of I10? No, I said south of 90.
90 and I10 are only a few miles apart in like 1/3 or more of the state including 90% of Lafyette, Sulphur and Lake Charles being south of both
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 10:18 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:21 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Legend, what caused all that convection to dissipate? Shear?
Shear and dry air.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
The west gulf weather buoy showed a move from 30 to 40 mph winds in the last hour with wind direction moving from east to north. That weather station is a good one to watch to get information that has not been managed. Seas there also climbed to 13 feet in the last couple hours. Not a barn burner yet
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:35 pm to rds dc
Interesting paragraph from the NHC forecast discussion on the 10 PM CDT advisory:
quote:
Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt) just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:52 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Looks mighty
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:58 pm to habz007
quote:
Looks mighty
Shear and dry air doing its thing today. Id be surprised if Beryl is this sloppy in 24 hours.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:59 pm to Duke
quote:
00z Hrrr, Nam, and Icon into Matagorda County
Add 00z GFS to this list
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:59 pm to LegendInMyMind
Thanks. It’s really amazing to watch how these things interact with the environment they move through.
Except when they interact near me.
Except when they interact near me.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:02 pm to The Boat
Lookie here...
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:03 pm to The Boat
Same with 00Z Cmc
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:05 pm to RummelTiger
A 280 degree wobble west after a 340 degree wobble north to stay on a 310 ish degree heading 
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:07 pm to The Boat
Just gimme a little more Westward movement...
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:08 pm to The Boat
quote:
A 280 degree wobble west after a 340 degree wobble north to stay on a 310 ish degree heading
There's just no accounting for the drunk staggers.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:17 pm to The Boat
More 295-300ish
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:20 pm to RummelTiger
Looking a little tipsy there BeryL. Stay a little west for me
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