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Appears Spain will be the next Italy: 738 deaths past 24 hrs, up from 514

Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:47 am
Posted by AncientTiger
Mississippi- Louisiana - Destin
Member since Sep 2016
1380 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:47 am
Madrid, Spain – Coronavirus latest: Spain overtakes China in total death toll

Spain recorded 738 fatalities from coronavirus over the past 24 hours, marking the biggest spike in deaths since the epidemic reached the country, its health ministry reported on Wednesday. The new figure takes Spain’s total death toll to 3,434 -- higher than China, and second in the world only to Italy. The country has also confirmed a total of 47,610 cases. Spain is currently on its 11th day of a nationwide lockdown.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 6:48 am
Posted by tankyank13
NOLA
Member since Nov 2012
7713 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:49 am to
Can’t wait until we model our medical system after theirs.
Posted by Chef Free Gold Bloom
Wherever I’m needed
Member since Dec 2019
1364 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:49 am to
quote:

the next Italy


I propose we ban anyone who uses this phrase
Posted by YouAre8Up
in a house
Member since Mar 2011
12792 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:50 am to
But JBE said that Louisiana was.
Posted by chitiger91
Lake Bluff IL
Member since Apr 2016
3120 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:52 am to
Everyone is gonna die everywhere don’t worry man, it’s the Black Plague. Think the hokey pokey but way more brutal, if we don’t kill our country to stop it everyone dies.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62729 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:52 am to
Seems pretty clear to me that that area of the world has a more fatal strand of this virus than the rest of the world
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17688 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:56 am to
quote:

Seems pretty clear to me that that area of the world has a more fatal strand of this virus than the rest of the world


I just read where the strain in Europe is the same as the US.
Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
33923 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:02 am to
I read somewhere that the real number of people with Coronavirus in Italy is 10x higher than the number of reported cases. Their mortality rate probably isn’t any higher than it is anywhere else. It’s likely there is close to a million people with Coronavirus in Italy.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
73674 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:04 am to
quote:

It’s likely there is close to a million people with Coronavirus in Italy.



Wouldn't surprise me. Just like here their initial tests were limited so they held off before widespread testing could happen.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 7:11 am
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
17879 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:10 am to
They need another feminist march.
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13615 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:11 am to
quote:

Seems pretty clear to me that that area of the world has a more fatal strand of this virus than the rest of the world


Where did you go to medical school?
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
16833 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:14 am to
quote:

I read somewhere that the real number of people with Coronavirus in Italy is 10x higher than the number of reported cases.


So did the article just use the 10x assumption for Italy and not other countries?
Posted by threeputtforbogie
Member since Sep 2017
829 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:25 am to
Let's circle back on that and touch base after we see how much we're able to flatten the curve.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5001 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:33 am to
quote:


So did the article just use the 10x assumption for Italy and not other countries?


Yea in America we definitely have more cases than reported but probably not 10x.
Our pop density is way less, we don't practice multi generational living, we use less public transportation

Just look at the cases between New York and LA and you can see how people live and cities are set up effects the spread of the virus
Posted by MojoGuyPan
Intercession City, Florida
Member since Jun 2018
2797 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:33 am to
quote:

Seems pretty clear to me that that area of the world has a more fatal strand of this virus than the rest of the world


Totally. Could be that their is more L-strain in Europe and more S over here in the US.
Posted by Bmath
LA
Member since Aug 2010
18664 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:36 am to


quote:

Where did you go to medical school?


Didn’t know that medical school teaches genomics and bioinformatics.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
7631 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:38 am to
quote:

I read somewhere that the real number of people with Coronavirus in Italy is 10x higher than the number of reported cases. Their mortality rate probably isn’t any higher than it is anywhere else. It’s likely there is close to a million people with Coronavirus in Italy.



Probably true everywhere. Iceland did mass testing and concluded that 1% of its population has it.
Posted by Uptowner
The OP
Member since Oct 2019
2030 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:46 am to
Without accounting for different sizes of populations and testing practices, comparing the raw numbers of deaths in two countries is just about meaningless.

The only thing stats like that prove is that 'Merica is bad at math.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19805 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:56 am to
quote:

I read somewhere that the real number of people with Coronavirus in Italy is 10x higher than the number of reported cases. Their mortality rate probably isn’t any higher than it is anywhere else. It’s likely there is close to a million people with Coronavirus in Italy.


The latest estimates using data from around the world puts the CFR at approximately 1.5%. Given that, Italy probably has in the range of 1/2 million cases (very rough back of the envelope calculations).
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
7631 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:59 am to
quote:

puts the CFR at approximately 1.5%.


It may be 1.5% if you look only at confirmed cases. This ignores the huge number of asymptomatic cases and cases where symptoms are so minor that people never bother to get tested.
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