- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Antibody study in Netherlands shows that 3% had coronavirus. What it means for us.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:51 pm
LINK
3% of 17 million is 510,00 infections
The Netherlands currently has 3,315 deaths
This means the infection mortality rate would be 0.6%
But this is where it gets interesting. New Orleans has a population of let’s say 400,000. Assuming a 0.6% infection fatality rate. This would mean there have been 40,000 infections in New Orleans to get to the current level of deaths (244)
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
quote:
"This study shows that about 3% of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus," Van Dissel said. "You can calculate from that, it's several hundred thousand people" in a country of 17 million.
3% of 17 million is 510,00 infections
The Netherlands currently has 3,315 deaths
This means the infection mortality rate would be 0.6%
But this is where it gets interesting. New Orleans has a population of let’s say 400,000. Assuming a 0.6% infection fatality rate. This would mean there have been 40,000 infections in New Orleans to get to the current level of deaths (244)
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 3:53 pm
20
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:53 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
Probably, they had a massive festival right when this hit.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:55 pm to Turbeauxdog
I would imagine New Orleans has one of the highest infection rates of any city in the world
Millions of people visited across the world for a festival known for drunken debauchery right at the start of covid spread
Millions of people visited across the world for a festival known for drunken debauchery right at the start of covid spread
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:56 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
Or people in NOLA are waaaaayyy more unhealthy than in Netherlands
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:56 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
I think that's more than 10%. New Orleans only has about 320,000 people. It's smaller than Omaha, Columbus, East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, etc.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 3:57 pm to WaWaWeeWa
A question for you stat assumptions: Is LA recording parish of residency on their stats or parish of the hospital they died in?
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:03 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Hope everyone really enjoyed Mardi Gras. So many bad omens. We should have volunteered to shut that shite down after the Endymion death
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:03 pm to Cosmo
quote:unhealthy isn't the word you're looking for when taking about people infected.
Or people in NOLA are waaaaayyy more unhealthy than in Netherlands
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:03 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:04 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
And that’s not even counting STDs
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:06 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
A question for you stat assumptions: Is LA recording parish of residency on their stats or parish of the hospital they died in?
It’s just a ballpark figure. There are a lot of variables.
For instance, Cosmo says New Orleans could be less healthy. Possible, although if the infections get in a couple nursing homes it can skew numbers one way or another
Also, I have questions about the Dutch study. It was done on blood donors. Obviously people under 18 probably aren’t donating blood and they are the ones who have most of the asymptomatic cases. Are they accounting for this? Don’t know, study hasn’t been released yet.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:09 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:
Hope everyone really enjoyed Mardi Gras
I don’t necessarily see this as a bad thing. I think we are closer to getting back to normal once we hit herd immunity.
If you run the same extrapolation for New York City they would have 2 million infections.
Or 25% of New York City has already been infected.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:09 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Per that article it doesn't give the sample size or if the blood donations were from one particular area, whether rural or urban.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:11 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
It’s just a ballpark figure. There are a lot of variables.
For sure. I was just curious because Orleans Parish is ~400k, but might have more deaths within that parish because of a higher concentration of medical facilitates where people from outside the parish die. Here in TN they are recording your county of residence for stats, I believe.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:11 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Or people in NOLA are waaaaayyy more unhealthy than in Netherlands
The hell you say? I don't have time for this. I have to get back to my fryer. I've got chicken and shrimp in there for my mid afternoon snack before my crawfish Etouffee dinner tonight.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:13 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:And it’s likely that AT LEAST half of those were false positives, and it could be as many as 70-80 percent.
3% of 17 million is 510,00 infections
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:13 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
This study shows that about 3% of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus," Van Dissel said.
What the frick does mr. fast and furious know about viruses?
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:15 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Or 10% of the population of New Orleans has been infected.
This is not a stretch at all IMO. Hell, haven't 1.5% of the Orleans Parish population tested positive?
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:16 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
I was just curious because Orleans Parish is ~400k, but might have more deaths within that parish because of a higher concentration of medical facilitates where people from outside the parish die.
Certainly a possibility. This was just meant to give everyone an idea of what the antibody tests are going to start to reveal.
Some antibody studies are suggesting an even lower infection mortality rate of 0.3% which would mean potentially 20% of New Orleans has been infected. And while it’s been terrible for those people who have suffered and died we could certainly handle 3 times that amount to get to herd immunity.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:18 pm to castorinho
quote:
unhealthy isn't the word you're looking for when taking about people infected.
No, but pre-infection health is a factor. So it's probably more reasonable to assume that NOLA's mortality rate is much higher, due to unhealthy lifestyle choices, than assume a higher infection rate to match the Netherland's mortality rate.
Page 1 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News