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re: Antibody study in Netherlands shows that 3% had coronavirus. What it means for us.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:08 pm to wdhalgren
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:08 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
This once again raises the question of what the hell is going on with testing in the US?
Kentucky Governor Beshear announced in his press conference yesterday that they were partnering with the University of Louisville for antibody testing in the region. Specifically among healthcare workers.
quote:
LOUISVILLE, Ky. —
In Gov. Andy Beshear's Wednesday press conference, he announced the first stage of a unique testing regime that is designed to save lives and get people back to work.
The Co-Immunity Project is a collaboration among the State of Kentucky, Louisville Metro Government, the Christina Lee Brown Environmental Institute and several major health care companies.
The project will focus on comprehensive testing, centered on antibodies and developing donor plasma resources.
“It will test for antibodies for those who have been infected in the past and may have developed immunity,” the Beshear said.
quote:
“This is a unique opportunity for us to leverage all of the research capabilities of the University of Louisville,” said University of Louisville President Neeli Bendapudi. “We are very eager to try to work with the entire population, first of all to protect our health care workers and then everyone in the community and hopefully from Louisville we are able to take this and extend it to enhancing the health of the entire commonwealth.”
I have no doubt we're not the only state with a major University doing this.
LINK
1
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:30 pm to BluegrassBelle
And what does this do exactly? So lets say you can do antibody tests on every single person in the state (highly unlikely). By doing that you discover that 7% of the state's population has the antibodies. Then what? What do you do with that information? Are you going to tell the 93% sorry you can't come back to work?
I am having a hard time understanding the infatuation with testing as a be all end all solution. Maybe someone can explain it to me.
I am having a hard time understanding the infatuation with testing as a be all end all solution. Maybe someone can explain it to me.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:31 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
And for this we took the best economy we’ve ever had and destroyed it to the point we’re reaching depression levels.
You need to calm down. You are just as bad as all the doomsayers you despise, you are just spewing doom about a different topic.
You act like you know for sure the economy would have been just fine if we would have just “continued like nothing was happening”... an idea that is literally impossible and you know it.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:34 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
I am having a hard time understanding the infatuation with testing as a be all end all solution.
It’s not a solution. It just allows us to more accurately predict the future. All of our policy is being made based on models. Models which haven’t proven to be very accurate yet. More data means more accurate models which in turn means better policy.
Everything that we did was based on presumed percentage of critical patients and deaths.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 6:51 pm to WestSideTiger
A lot of NOLA showed symptoms and didn't get tested
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:09 pm to WaWaWeeWa
If 10% of the population has been infected, it's still significant in our efforts to control the virus.
People talk about herd immunity, and of course we aren't going to get there anytime soon (something like 50-70% of the population) -- but we don't need true herd immunity to lower the R value of the virus to the point that we can control it with very minor measures.
If 10% of the population truly has antibodies to COVID-19, it will mean that we can likely open up things faster. Eventually, it would start to make things like fans at sporting events seem like a little less of an insane idea.
People talk about herd immunity, and of course we aren't going to get there anytime soon (something like 50-70% of the population) -- but we don't need true herd immunity to lower the R value of the virus to the point that we can control it with very minor measures.
If 10% of the population truly has antibodies to COVID-19, it will mean that we can likely open up things faster. Eventually, it would start to make things like fans at sporting events seem like a little less of an insane idea.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:14 pm to WaWaWeeWa
It’s not apples to apples my friend. You’re comparing the death rate of probably some of the healthiest people on the planet to probably the most obese, hypertension and diabetes ridden region of the world.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If 10% of the population truly has antibodies to COVID-19, it will mean that we can likely open up things faster. Eventually, it would start to make things like fans at sporting events seem like a little less of an insane idea.
Exactly. I thought this would be obvious from the OP. I was trying to keep it brief, but your analysis is exactly the point I was hoping to convey.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:50 pm to DrewSimp82
quote:
It’s not apples to apples my friend. You’re comparing the death rate of probably some of the healthiest people on the planet to probably the most obese, hypertension and diabetes ridden region of the world.
You are making a lot of assumptions as well.
Healthcare
Genetics
Smoking
Age (average age in Netherlands if 42 vs 32 in New Orleans)
We don’t know for sure. It’s just a rough estimate.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:06 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Netherlands hypertension rates are almost the exact same as Louisiana.
If we want to look at hypertension....the leading comorbidity.
If we want to look at hypertension....the leading comorbidity.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:17 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Or people in NOLA are waaaaayyy more unhealthy than in Netherlands
THIS
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
The only FDA approved test with a legitimate lab test study that I’ve seen showed a 98.4% specificity for the lgg antibody but with low sensitivity with a 96% agreement for negative results with the lgm antibody and 93% agreement for positive results.
So even using that 98.4%, that would mean a 1% infection rate would result in 1.58% of the sample testing falsely positive.
Can you explain this like I’m 5?
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:20 pm to HeadSlash
Italy is way healthier than NOLA as well.
We see how that worked out for them.
We see how that worked out for them.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 9:16 pm to WaWaWeeWa
This is not a hopeful sign. Need 50% either by exposure or vaccination for herd immunity. Would like to see closer to 25% so that you are over half way there. Means they will need to stay shut down to international travel until vaccination, which is tough since they are the new London for a few things like EMA post Brexit.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 9:25 pm to WaWaWeeWa
If the tandem float don't get ya than the Rona will.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 9:57 pm to NorCali
quote:
This is not a hopeful sign.
Why? An infection fatality rate of 0.6% doesn’t seem better to you? It not only cuts the number of deaths by a lot it also cuts the projected resources needed by a lot.
Let’s say remdesivir and other therapies can cut that mortality rate in half. Then we are only looking at 0.3% mortality rate.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:00 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Seems like really bad math to extrapolate death data from a country whose 2nd and 3rd highest death totals were today and yesterday. Not that all Corona math hasn't been woefully turrible.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:00 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
remdesivir
Has been a ton of hype on this the last 48 hours or so
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:01 pm to MoarKilometers
I’m open to you providing a more accurate infection fatality rate
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:07 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I’m open to you providing a more accurate infection fatality rate
I'm open to them listing how many people were in this pool of tested folks and disclosing how they were selected for testing. Garbage in, garbage out prevents anyone from legitimately throwing out an accurate number from this.
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