re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 19:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°46'N 86°17'W (18.7667N 86.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 statute miles (214 km) to the E (82°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 745m (2,444ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 22kts (25.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 244° at 14kts (From the WSW at 16.1mph)
G. Location of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 746m (2,448ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Got a center fix. South of the previous NHC position.

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Fix Determined By: Penetration,

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mom said something about if we were going to Gulf Shores that would be different.

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Lol gulf shores will be worse than Destin most likely

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Horseshoe Beach, Florida,
westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Indian Pass, Florida, westward
to Grand Isle, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm
is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic
motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

What's NHC seeing that requires SE LA to go under a watch? They think it will make a close pass? More stuff will build to the west?

Chicken said it's time.

first sticky of hurricane season

glad to share this moment with you baws

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What's NHC seeing that requires SE LA to go under a watch? They think it will make a close pass? More stuff will build to the west?

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12z ensembles clearly show the potential for some westward adjustments.

Wow! Look at those thunderstorms build up over Birmingham/Hoover, Alabama!

No wonder the SEC baseball tournament is in a rain delay!