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re: 5/6 Oklahoma/Kansas severe weather - High Risk- PDS Tor Watch
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:14 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:14 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I’m going to go ahead and be the first here to say it, with hesitation:
Are we seeing a high risk bust unfold?
Nothing would make me happier. The bad thing - if true - would be 2nd high alert in last 9 days to mostly bust for OKC metro. Last one ended up bad tornados down south. And then people stop listening go warnings.
Weather folk use every available tool and knowledge to predict these things. All they can do is predict the “conditions” will be there.
But for my sake (and many others) I do hope they bust. So far around 6 tornados but nothing over F2 so far.
0
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:15 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
So far it’s been controlled but the timeframe was always from 5pm til midnight so we still have 4 more hours hopefully the trend continues
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:17 pm to SWLA92
?????????? ??.
@RandomHeroWX
Looks like Perry, OK may have dodged a bullet. Tornado has likely occluded and become a very large gust front.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:18 pm to SWLA92
One of the storm chasers (Chase) on Reeds streaming bitching about locals pulling out in front of him. I bet all the locals are pissed off with all these chasers traffic in their area.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:19 pm to OU Guy
Nights like this and severe weather chances, when changing out of dress/work clothes, am I the only one that thinks ‘What do I want to be wearing if interviewed by a TV crew?’
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:20 pm to dukke v
quote:
I have never seen a 9 torcon before…. Scary…
I have. April 27,2011
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:20 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:21 pm to SWLA92
quote:
One of the storm chasers (Chase) on Reeds streaming bitching about locals pulling out in front of him. I bet all the locals are pissed off with all these chasers traffic in their area.
Its really bad. They come from all over the world and pay big money to ride along and hope to catch one. Then you have legit but one car operators who live stream to their podcasts. No good answer but its not a good situation.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:22 pm to SWLA92
The HRRR pretty much nailed it to this point:
18z
18z
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
When it comes to tornadoes, April 27, 2011 had an ultra-rare 45% probability of tornadoes in the high risk area. Meaning there was a 45% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in that area.
I’m curious has the 60% or Sig ever been used before?
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:28 pm to Pedro
quote:
To be fair there have been tornados.
Yeah, I don’t mean a total bust. Just that maybe it won’t hit the level of what we tend to see with a high risk.
And I don’t mean any of this negatively toward SPC, NWS or anything. Sometimes it’s really hard to forecast these things and little factors can determine what level the event reaches.
Night isn’t over, though.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:30 pm to deltaland
quote:
I’m curious has the 60% or Sig ever been used before?
Not that I can recall.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
I was just coming to ask if it was expected to go linear as it has. I guess so...18z nailed it
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:32 pm to OU Guy
So when I look and it seems like this line is trending in a NNE fashion, possibly being north of where I am…are my eyes deceiving me or will the dry line out west end up pushing these in a more southerly flow?
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:34 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:35 pm to Hawgeye
Meanwhile, the kinky line up North of Sioux Falls is causing headaches.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:36 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Yeah, I don’t mean a total bust. Just that maybe it won’t hit the level of what we tend to see with a high risk.
And I don’t mean any of this negatively toward SPC, NWS or anything. Sometimes it’s really hard to forecast these things and little factors can determine what level the event reaches.
Night isn’t over, though.
You’re not wrong there were F5 type predictions. At best F2 so far. But its mot over yet.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:36 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
So when I look and it seems like this line is trending in a NNE fashion, possibly being north of where I am…are my eyes deceiving me or will the dry line out west end up pushing these in a more southerly flow?
The front will eventually catch the dry line and forward speed will pick up giving it a more easterly storm motion.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:36 pm to mudshuvl05
quote:
remember when that video came out with the people riding the tornado out under an overpass and for the next decade + it ingrained into the psyche of the American public that, "if you've got an overpass nearby, you're saf
The movie Night of the Twisters did the same at the end. At least they got it right where the guy almost got sucked out the jeep under the overpass
Atomic Twister was an underrated tornado disaster film. It was low budget but not a bad storyline. Tornado hits a nuclear plant and it goes into meltdown
Honestly one of those movies with a great plot but had low budget effects and acting. Would be a worth a remake. Never understood why Hollywood remakes movies that are already classics rather than remaking ones that were good ideas but poorly executed
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:37 pm to Hawgeye
I’m in south OKC. So far it looks like we might get nothing. I know the night isn’t over but so far I’m stunned. Weather is so unpredictable. I hope I didn’t jinx it.
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