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Started By
Message
re: 11 day difference between Italy and the US
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:37 pm to StringedInstruments
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:37 pm to StringedInstruments
Cute chart
However the information is worthless
However the information is worthless
1
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:37 pm to tilco
I can’t believe so many people in this thread are freaking out about this chart 
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:38 pm to Mr Perfect
Screw off dude. You have added nothing in recent days.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:38 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
don't see anything about population density in there. Seems like an awfully large factor to leave out.
It is and it's called a confounding variable.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:39 pm to X123F45
Oh certain people don’t want to hear that we are doing well and will be fine. It’s almost as if the virus has been politicized! Crazy huh
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:41 pm to StringedInstruments
First, we are taking protective measures like closing schools etc. much earlier than Italy did. Italy did not prohibit public gatherings and close schools until March 5th. We have been moving in that direction for three days which would leaves 5-8 days ahead of the Italians which is statistically incredibly significant.
Second, we have five times the population.
Our curve will flatten (as intended by all these closures) and our deaths will remain much, much lower per capita.
Second, we have five times the population.
Our curve will flatten (as intended by all these closures) and our deaths will remain much, much lower per capita.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:44 pm to X123F45
quote:
Given our massive difference in population size and makeup oh, we're doing pretty well
We haven't tested shite so our numbers are significantly higher than that graph shows. And the population size is less relevant when you consider that the virus is spreading at the same rate. It just means that it will continue to accelerate and our final numbers will be much higher than Italy. We don't know if it will be 5 times their final numbers, but the pattern it real.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:45 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Holy shite
how is this much difference than any other virus that has been spread since the dawn of man?
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:46 pm to ashy larry
quote:
nd the population size is less relevant when you consider that the virus is spreading at the same rate
But it’s not
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:46 pm to X123F45
quote:
Given our massive difference in population size and makeup oh, we're doing pretty well
THIS
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:46 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
First, we are taking protective measures like closing schools etc. much earlier than Italy did. Italy did not prohibit public gatherings and close schools until March 5th. We have been moving in that direction for three days which would leaves 5-8 days ahead of the Italians which is statistically incredibly significant.
Second, we have five times the population.
Our curve will flatten (as intended by all these closures) and our deaths will remain much, much lower per capita.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:47 pm to StringedInstruments
They also have a much higher population density, have an older population, and haven't taken the levels of prevention that we have.
I hope we end up better off.
I hope we end up better off.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:48 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
how is this much difference than any other virus that has been spread since the dawn of man?
It’s a combination of being moderately contagious and moderately fatal.
There have been worse pandemics in terms of total results but this will be up there until you get to the 1918 Flu.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:50 pm to Malik Agar
quote:
much higher population density
I do think that is something worth discussing when this is all over. The US catches a lot of criticism because we are not densely populated and do not have these mega cities. But I think that will end up working out in ur favor.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:51 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
First, we are taking protective measures like closing schools etc. much earlier than Italy did. Italy did not prohibit public gatherings and close schools until March 5th.
The curve is 11 days of difference. Italy annouced on 3/4 they were closing schools. Louisiana (not the whole US) announced today they are closing schools which is. LA is 9 days behind Italy. Other states may be further behind.
quote:
We have been moving in that direction for three days which would leaves 5-8 days ahead of the Italians which is statistically incredibly significant.
It's been less than 48 hours since significant closures have been announced. Not all states have announced closures either which makes your 5-8 days very inaccurate.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:52 pm to Number 9 Fan
quote:
Given our massive difference in population size and makeup oh, we're doing pretty well
That was my initial reaction too
What’s the rate of testing over there though? because we are way behind in the states
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:52 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Italy has 20% of our population though
We also have more space. You can't compare them apples to apples. We have more opportunities for additional hotspots to show up. Seeing that growth curve similarity is pretty interesting.
It would also be interesting to see how many tests were administered by each country over that same period. The numbers are very likely low due to lack of testing as much as lack of infections.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:53 pm to Jester
quote:
We also have more space. You can't compare them apples to apples. W
Well I don’t think he’s the guy who made the graph
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:53 pm to X123F45
quote:
Given our massive difference in population size and makeup oh, we're doing pretty well
Given that the population density is much higher in Italy, thus transmission being easier, I'd say we're doing pretty poorly.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:54 pm to 9Fiddy
quote:
Wow. Hope we do a better job at containing the spread
We won't unless we do today what Italy only just started doing.
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