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The Ringer:The Saints and the Art (and Madness) of Trading Up in the Draft
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:48 am
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:48 am
I get tired just thinking about the New Orleans Saints. I wish they would chill out, if only for one second.
For what seems like forever, New Orleans has walked the tight rope between shrewd and reckless. When it comes to cap management and the utilization of their draft capital, they employ a win-now-and-worry-about-the-future-later strategy to go all in every year. When longtime football czar Sean Payton stepped down in January, though, the franchise was handed a chance to hit the reset button and take a breath after years and years of making seemingly unsustainable future-mortgaging moves. Instead, the team’s brain trust, headed up by GM Mickey Loomis, looked at a roster that earned an initial win total over/under of 7.5 from Vegas bookmakers and decided to push all their chips in anyway.
After re-upping or restructuring most of their key starters from last year and making a targeted free agency push, the Saints doubled down on 2022 and sent a package of future picks to the Eagles in an early-April blockbuster trade, acquiring a second first-round pick in the draft (giving them nos. 16 and 19). Not yet finished, the Saints then gave up a handful more picks to the Commanders on draft night to move up an additional five spots, selecting Ohio State receiver Chris Olave at no. 11. Combining the team’s pre-draft and draft-day trades, the Saints essentially gave up five picks to select Olave: two 2022 third-rounders, a 2022 fourth-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder. That’s an absurd amount of draft capital for a team to surrender for any one player. And it’s especially true when that player is not a quarterback.
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For what seems like forever, New Orleans has walked the tight rope between shrewd and reckless. When it comes to cap management and the utilization of their draft capital, they employ a win-now-and-worry-about-the-future-later strategy to go all in every year. When longtime football czar Sean Payton stepped down in January, though, the franchise was handed a chance to hit the reset button and take a breath after years and years of making seemingly unsustainable future-mortgaging moves. Instead, the team’s brain trust, headed up by GM Mickey Loomis, looked at a roster that earned an initial win total over/under of 7.5 from Vegas bookmakers and decided to push all their chips in anyway.
After re-upping or restructuring most of their key starters from last year and making a targeted free agency push, the Saints doubled down on 2022 and sent a package of future picks to the Eagles in an early-April blockbuster trade, acquiring a second first-round pick in the draft (giving them nos. 16 and 19). Not yet finished, the Saints then gave up a handful more picks to the Commanders on draft night to move up an additional five spots, selecting Ohio State receiver Chris Olave at no. 11. Combining the team’s pre-draft and draft-day trades, the Saints essentially gave up five picks to select Olave: two 2022 third-rounders, a 2022 fourth-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder. That’s an absurd amount of draft capital for a team to surrender for any one player. And it’s especially true when that player is not a quarterback.
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This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 10:03 am
5
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:52 am to hsfolk
there's going to be years where we got no caps and no picks. i think mickey will retire then. 
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:00 am to hsfolk
quote:
looked at a roster that earned an initial win total over/under of 7.5 from Vegas bookmakers and decided to push all their chips in anyway.
Oh, well since Vegas said the Saints would only have 7.5 wins, Loomis should have just folded. Forget the fact they won 9 games with backups playing more games than the starter, and there was a revolving door on the o-line with all of the injuries/Covid.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:03 am to hsfolk
Pretty fair article.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:05 am to NOSHAU
we're usually fairly limited on roster spots so it doesn't do us much good having 8+ picks when most won't make the team
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:09 am to hsfolk
quote:
Saints essentially gave up five picks to select Olave: two 2022 third-rounders, a 2022 fourth-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder.
Dude better be a Julio-level star or this will be an epic fail of a trade up
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:33 am to hsfolk
quote:
we're usually fairly limited on roster spots so it doesn't do us much good having 8+ picks when most won't make the team
I think the Saints take the approach of they would rather get quality over quantity. Or, in other words, paying ton in draft picks to grab a guy they really like in Olave is better than not getting someone they really love and being stuck with later round bums that likely won't make the team. I'm not saying that strategy is right or wrong. It's just want they apparently want to do.
Having more picks means higher odds more of those guys "hit". Less picks means you have to have a higher "hit" rate. The Saints appear to be very confident in their scouting in that they are going to "hit" at a much higher rate than most. Thus, they don't need a ton of picks.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:34 am to SlowFlowPro
I get it was a lot, but really they didn't give up a first rounder seeing as they got a 1st rounder back for that cache.
Really, they gave up two third rounders, a 4th and a second to pick a year early and move up in the draft. If the Saints end up picking late this year (say last 6-8), then it wasn't a bad trade. They took a 25-32 pick and turned it into a #11 pick.
Yes it had a cost, but do they have room for those 2 3rd rounders and 4th rounder on the team this year? I doubt it.
Really, they gave up two third rounders, a 4th and a second to pick a year early and move up in the draft. If the Saints end up picking late this year (say last 6-8), then it wasn't a bad trade. They took a 25-32 pick and turned it into a #11 pick.
Yes it had a cost, but do they have room for those 2 3rd rounders and 4th rounder on the team this year? I doubt it.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:12 am to Geauxgurt
I believe one reason they were so confident in giving up a 2023 first round pick is because they believe they will get it back once they trade Payton's rights away
Posted on 8/24/22 at 11:45 am to Geauxgurt
quote:
I get it was a lot, but really they didn't give up a first rounder seeing as they got a 1st rounder back for that cache.
They gave up a 2023 1st no matter what semantics you attempt.
quote:
If the Saints end up picking late this year (say last 6-8), then it wasn't a bad trade. They took a 25-32 pick and turned it into a #11 pick.
Hindsight bias. You literally can't do this when judging a trade in real time. Those externalities are part of the cost.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 11:52 am to Alt26
quote:
I think the Saints take the approach of they would rather get quality over quantity. Or, in other words, paying ton in draft picks to grab a guy they really like in Olave is better than not getting someone they really love and being stuck with later round bums that likely won't make the team. I'm not saying that strategy is right or wrong. It's just want they apparently want to do.
This is 100% it and it requires they be better at drafting than any other team, which hasn't shown to be true.
They do seem better than the average team, but the data hasn't really reflected this amazing drafting. 2017 was an all-timer (with GOAT potential). Outside of that grand slam it's been iffy under Ireland. To be considered this god of drafting, we need more of our drafts to be closer to 2017 than the rest of our drafts.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 12:24 pm to SlowFlowPro
I agree with you and Olave is a nice player. But he’s not a Justin Jefferson. He might sneak into 1-2 pro bowls. The guy to take at 11 after trading all of those picks was probably Jameson Williams. Not Olave. And I hate Alabama. Me recommending that we should’ve taken an injured Alabama player is about as unbiased as one can get. He has that much talent. He’s a taller Tyreek Hill when healthy.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 12:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
Slo I think in our case this year having few holes to fill played a role in going for fewer but better pics. We needed a LT(1st rnd) a WR(1st rnd) and a DE(1st rnd) last year.
Also I'm sure DA wanted to hit the ground running as he has less leeway than most new coaches.
Also could your teams cap situation change how you draft as far as number of pics?
I suppose if you hit on all your draft pics every year(like we all wish) it would quickly drain your cap
Also I'm sure DA wanted to hit the ground running as he has less leeway than most new coaches.
Also could your teams cap situation change how you draft as far as number of pics?
I suppose if you hit on all your draft pics every year(like we all wish) it would quickly drain your cap
Posted on 8/24/22 at 12:43 pm to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
s was probably Jameson Williams.
How many pro bowls? I'm heading to the Indian casino.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 12:52 pm to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
I agree with you and Olave is a nice player. But he’s not a Justin Jefferson. He might sneak into 1-2 pro bowls. The guy to take at 11 after trading all of those picks was probably Jameson Williams.
Yeah you for sure take the guy starting his career injured when you trade up to win now. Brilliant.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 1:31 pm to hsfolk
quote:But trading away multiple high future picks for a 1st rounder that you already know is in the middle of the round was confusing, especially when it is not for a franchise QB.
we're usually fairly limited on roster spots so it doesn't do us much good having 8+ picks when most won't make the team
Posted on 8/24/22 at 3:43 pm to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
I agree with you and Olave is a nice player.....He might sneak into 1-2 pro bowls.
And you know this before he's played a grand total of 0 NFL snaps? C'mon man
That comment followed by quote:
The guy to take at 11 after trading all of those picks was probably Jameson Williams.
makes it really hard to be on your side. The only real thing I agree with you on is
quote:
I hate Alabama
Posted on 8/24/22 at 5:15 pm to GeauxTigers0107
First we have our QB so we can put that to bed. Second if you try to acquire a pro bowl level WO in the free agent market it cost 25m. The Saints after thoroughly vetting Chris saw a pro bowl talent they can lock up for much cheaper.
After years of hearing from fans that we don’t have great WO we got one, so quit crying. And yes we traded 1st but we got their 11th and they are getting our between 28-32 #1 I think.
Then I think the Saints rolled snake eyes knowing when Payton is coaching next year they will get most if not all of their draft picks back. So I hope that puts your complaining to rest.
After years of hearing from fans that we don’t have great WO we got one, so quit crying. And yes we traded 1st but we got their 11th and they are getting our between 28-32 #1 I think.
Then I think the Saints rolled snake eyes knowing when Payton is coaching next year they will get most if not all of their draft picks back. So I hope that puts your complaining to rest.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:35 pm to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
I agree with you and Olave is a nice player. But he’s not a Justin Jefferson
How do you know he’s not Jefferson? Hardly anybody wanted Jefferson on this board that draft. Almost everyone wanted Queen or the OU backer.
I said over and over in the draft threads we needed to get Jefferson and was told receiver was one of the last things we needed lol. Then we gave up the farm to move up for Olave a short time later.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:38 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
They took a 25-32 pick and turned it into a #11 pick.
Saints will pick before 20 next year.
Worst case they will have a Top 10 pick next year.
This is DA's first year as a head coach. It is doubtful he coaches the team to the playoffs in his first year.
He is not SP.
Knowing you have a 1st year HC, you should draft conservatively until your coach proves himself. You can't afford to trade next years picks away when you could end up with a Top 10 slot.
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