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re: The Ringer:The Saints and the Art (and Madness) of Trading Up in the Draft
Posted on 8/25/22 at 6:05 am to Townedrunkard
Posted on 8/25/22 at 6:05 am to Townedrunkard
I feel like a decent amount of people wanted Jefferson, but also knew he wouldn’t be available when we picked. But yes, we should’ve traded up for him, probably using less draft capital than we did to get Olave.
I’ve watched Jefferson for 5 years now. I’ve watched less of Olave obviously, but Jefferson might be a top 3 route runner in the entire NFL. He also just seems longer than Olave. It’s no disrespect to Olave. I think people are going to expect insane things out of him given what we gave up to draft him, and based on the Film I’ve seen against Big 10 talent, I don’t see a slam dunk pro bowl prospect. I see a faster Kenny Stills, with better intangibles. That’s a damn solid player, but it’s not Justin Jefferson.
To the other guy, I understand we made a win now move and Jameson is injured, but if you are trading 5 picks, you need to select the guy who has top 5 talent and the potential to be the best over the next decade, not the safe number 2 type receiver, bc he is simply healthy at the time of the draft. Olave will be fine. Jameson will be a superstar, especially if Detroit gets him a QB eventually.
I’ve watched Jefferson for 5 years now. I’ve watched less of Olave obviously, but Jefferson might be a top 3 route runner in the entire NFL. He also just seems longer than Olave. It’s no disrespect to Olave. I think people are going to expect insane things out of him given what we gave up to draft him, and based on the Film I’ve seen against Big 10 talent, I don’t see a slam dunk pro bowl prospect. I see a faster Kenny Stills, with better intangibles. That’s a damn solid player, but it’s not Justin Jefferson.
To the other guy, I understand we made a win now move and Jameson is injured, but if you are trading 5 picks, you need to select the guy who has top 5 talent and the potential to be the best over the next decade, not the safe number 2 type receiver, bc he is simply healthy at the time of the draft. Olave will be fine. Jameson will be a superstar, especially if Detroit gets him a QB eventually.
1
Posted on 8/25/22 at 7:37 am to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
I think people are going to expect insane things out of him given what we gave up to draft him, and based on the Film I’ve seen against Big 10 talent, I don’t see a slam dunk pro bowl prospect. I see a faster Kenny Stills, with better intangibles. That’s a damn solid player, but it’s not Justin Jefferson.
I think Brandin Cooks is still the go to comparison. Explosive and solid but hasn't shown much after the catch/with contact.
Cooks is a very good receiver and worth the 11th pick, but we paid a premium to get that 11th pick.
If I told everyone we traded all that capital to get Cooks, who thinks that was a good move? Serious question.
Posted on 8/25/22 at 8:28 am to SlowFlowPro
I compare the Olave trade to the Julio Jones trade, which I thought was stupid at the time. However, the Falcons got a generational reciever for what amounted to Greg Little, Owen Marecic, Brandon Weeden and Phil Taylor. Not saying they were on the same level at draft time, but people forget that the draft is mostly a crap shoot.
I would make the Julio for scraps trade 100 out of 100 times knowing the outcome.
I would make the Julio for scraps trade 100 out of 100 times knowing the outcome.
Posted on 8/25/22 at 8:59 am to saints5021
That raised a different question: how close to Julio do you project Olave?
Posted on 8/25/22 at 9:03 am to SlowFlowPro
Julio was a freak, where I think Olave is more technically sound. I am high on Olave, but don't think he will be a generational talent.
Posted on 8/25/22 at 9:14 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Hindsight bias. You literally can't do this when judging a trade in real time.
“Real time” is laughable. A trade is a projection. There are people whose projections you trust. Just as there are people whose projections you do not trust. Loomis/Ireland have earned our trust.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:25 am to Chief Hinge
quote:
“Real time” is laughable. A trade is a projection.
No. A trade happens in real time with assets exchanged in real time.
Projecting the value is based on analytics/economics with historical data. That's why you have to judge trades in the present.
Trading up has been shown over and over to be suboptimal. As I stated earlier, a team would have to be a few deviation above the entire NFL at drafting to justify the cost of trading up, and no team has shown to be that good. What data has shown us is that the best drafting strategy is to have the most picks, because NFL teams are not great at drafting. You want more bites at the apple, or, casting a bigger net gets you more fish...whatever analogy works for your brain.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 7:03 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They gave up a 2023 1st no matter what semantics you attempt.
Yes. They did give up the 2023 1st round pick. No one is denying that. You are ignoring that they got another first back in the process, and one that could be higher than they would pick in 2023.
Unlike the Davenport draft, there they traded 2 1sts for 1 1st.
The price paid on this pick was the 2nd in 2024 and the two thirds. That was the big cost.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 7:09 am to hsfolk
We needed a quality wide out and the Saints did what they had to do to get their guy.
I am 100% on board with the win now mentality. WHO THE frick WANTS TO PLAN A LOSING YEAR?
I don't know if Olave is that guy, but I do know we are better off with Olave, Landry and MT vs last year whoever the hell we were trotting out there.
I am 100% on board with the win now mentality. WHO THE frick WANTS TO PLAN A LOSING YEAR?
I don't know if Olave is that guy, but I do know we are better off with Olave, Landry and MT vs last year whoever the hell we were trotting out there.
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