re: Olave extension: Predictions

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I view Olave in the same category as Tua.

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well that's just stupid.

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London:
62g/ 60gs/ 3,961yds/ 22TD/ 8.0 ytg
Catch: 309/497 62.2%

Olave:
55g/44gs/ 3,728yds/ 19TD/ 8.2 ytg
Catch: 291/457 63.7%


London with 7 extra games and only +3 TD's/ 233yds. Olave also left early in atleast 4 games. Olave is better, London is healthier.

This is Olave's last 3 games with Shough. I'll take that upside > London.

3gm/ 352yds/ 4 TDs
Catch: 24/ 36 66.7%

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You have to factor in durability. If he's not on the field, it puts alot of pressure on the rest of the offense.

Where are all these Olave fans coming from?

Trade him... He is fragile and favorite candy bar is butterfingers

It'll match or slightly exceed this. They have the same agent and similar stats (Olave better but has the concussion concern).

"Garrett Wilson signed a four year, $130 million contract extension with the Jets on July 17, 2025. $90 million is guaranteed of which $38.3 million is fully guaranteed at signing. The new guarantee on the contract is $69.675 million. Wilson received a $13.75 million signing bonus and his 2025 salary is fully guaranteed. There is a $20 million option bonus in 2026 and that along with his salary is also fully guaranteed. Wilson will earn a full guarantee on his 2027 salary in March 0f 2026 and a full guarantee on his 2028 salary in March of 2027."

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I'm not dismissing olave's history as a concern but its not nearly the leverage in negotiations that you would logically want it to be

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I'm not suggesting we use it a leverage. I'm suggesting that we make a decision not to tie up the type of guaranteed money people are talking about even if it means he walks.

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You either want the player and will pay him market value or you'll trade to a suitor that wants to pay his market value.

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His trade value is going to be very low because of his concussion history combined with the fact that he's not on a long term contract. Trading just isn't a viable option. We saw his lack of value last year around the trading deadline.

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So little trade value and let him walk.
Sounds great I'm sure Tyler will love having a room full of rookies to throw to.
Philly would be pleased to grab Olave lol

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Do you just not agree that there's significant risk with Olave? Do you think there is risk, but that it's worth the risk?

I realize it's a negative situation. But, that doesn't mean the right decision is to just ignore it.

ETA: To put it another way, have you considered what the impact to this franchise would be if Olave signed a contract with 100M guaranteed and then suffered another severe concussion? Who is Shough throwing to in that situation and for how long?

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After last year? No not significant

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Ok. I disagree, but I understand why you are willing to pay him. If you only base the decision on performance, Olave is someone you'd want to keep.

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Every big contract is primarily based on performance. You get paid based on future expectations and not how many games you missed 2 seasons ago.

2 years ago he was hurt. Last year he was a Top 6 WR.

If Burrow plays 16 games this year and is an MVP candidate the general consensus would be "He's back" and not "He's made of glass".

Olave isn't an undrafted mid level starter, he's an elite level player at a highly rated position.

Players like him get their money and teams cross their fingers that they stay healthy.

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You are getting lost in the weeds and confusing yourself.

I'm not telling you what to think. If you think Olave's risk is representative of all other players who have had an injury, I understand the opinion that he should be signed.

I happen to vehemently disagree with that. I think Olave's risk is MUCH higher than average.

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Comprehension my dude.

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Pretty sure I comprehended your point.

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You say "only" not me

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This is a case where you aren't comprehending. I wasn't making the point that you were only using performance. I was making the point that his performance alone was worthy of a contract.