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Mickey’s “borrow from the future” philosophy is flawed according to AI

Posted on 3/13/25 at 4:51 pm
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3028 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 4:51 pm
Borrowing money from future salary caps, often referred to as "cap manipulation" or "cap management," can present several downsides for NFL general managers and their teams:

Future Cap Strain: Utilizing future cap space can lead to significant financial strain in subsequent years. Teams may find themselves with limited flexibility when trying to sign or retain players, as they will have already allocated a portion of their future cap to past contracts.

Player Retention Issues: If a team is heavily reliant on cap manipulation, it may struggle to retain key players. As cap space tightens, the team might have to make tough decisions about which players to keep and which to let go.

Increased Dead Money: When teams restructure contracts, they often convert base salaries into signing bonuses, which can lead to higher dead money charges if a player is released or traded. This can limit a team's ability to make roster changes in the future.

Short-Term Focus: Relying on cap manipulation can encourage a short-term mindset, prioritizing immediate success over long-term sustainability. This can lead to a cycle of poor decision-making, where a team continually sacrifices future flexibility for short-term gains.

Increased Risk of Rebuilding: If a team struggles and needs to rebuild, having borrowed heavily against future caps can make the transition more difficult. Teams may find themselves in a position where they have to shed talented players to free up cap space, which can hinder their rebuilding efforts.

Fan and Media Scrutiny: Teams that frequently manipulate the cap can face scrutiny from fans and media regarding their financial practices. This can lead to a negative perception of the team's management and long-term strategy.

Limited Competitive Edge: If a team is unable to adapt to changing player market conditions due to cap constraints, it may struggle to remain competitive against teams that manage their cap space more effectively.

Injury Risks: If a team prioritizes signing players to large contracts with significant bonuses, they may be more vulnerable to the risks associated with injuries. A player’s performance may decline, or they may be unable to play due to injury, leaving the team with a costly contract and limited options.

In summary, while manipulating the salary cap can provide short-term benefits, it often comes with significant long-term risks that can hinder a team's competitive viability and financial health. General managers must carefully weigh these factors when making decisions about cap management.

Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
18175 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 4:52 pm to
Ok
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3028 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 4:55 pm to
Get your boy Chad over here and let him argue with my robot
Posted by VA LSU fan
Virginia
Member since Dec 2007
8393 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:00 pm to
Chad is an idiot when it comes to these things.

The biggest issue is always having to keep cap leveraged vets over cheaper and younger talent.

In poker it’s called pot committed. Loomis is always pot committed to vets and lets players like Baun , Hendrickson, and others walk. If our cap was in order we could keep cheaper younger talent and let prices out, past prime vets walk.
Posted by Rand AlThor
Member since Jan 2014
9846 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:09 pm to
The reality lies somewhere in the middle

With the cap continuously going up, $1 spent 3 years from now rather than today is more effective because it's a smaller % of the cap. Plus, players are going to continuously get more expensive as the cap rises. It makes some sense to spend today using tomorrow's dollars at a lower rate.

The flip side is that it makes it harder to tear the whole thing down. But people are being dishonest about our "cap hell", because we've basically already escaped. We are in surplus currently and have surplus planned for all future years, with strong off ramps for our most undesirable contracts.

Most likely they WILL continue to spend and make it look tighter in the future, but good teams utilize as much of their cap as possible while retaining flexibility. As long as they continue to build in mechanisms to move cap hits around, we're fine. The most important thing is to draft good players and only award contracts to guys who are worth it
This post was edited on 3/13/25 at 5:11 pm
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
29395 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:11 pm to
You needed AI to tell you Mickey is a terrible GM?
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73325 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

Chad is an idiot when it comes to these things.


Chad504boy is an active and influential contributor to the Saints Talk forum on TigerDroppings.com. His participation includes initiating discussions, sharing insights, and engaging with fellow members on various topics related to the New Orleans Saints.?

Chad504boy is known for his direct and candid communication style. He often provides straightforward opinions and engages in debates with other forum members. His posts reflect a deep understanding of the team's dynamics and a passion for discussing strategies and player performances.?

With over 170,000 posts since joining in 2005, Chad504boy has established himself as a prominent figure in the TigerDroppings community. His consistent activity and willingness to engage in various topics contribute to the vibrant discussions on the Saints Talk forum.?

Overall, Chad504boy's contributions significantly enrich the conversations among New Orleans Saints fans on TigerDroppings.com.?

Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
31282 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Chad is an idiot when it comes to these things.


Most things. He only gets a pass on taysom.
Posted by P bean
br
Member since Dec 2006
4678 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:53 pm to
Lol mhmmm.
Posted by Snipe
Member since Nov 2015
13893 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:57 pm to
AI is stupid.

I asked it how soon could the Saint realistically be expected to make the Super Bowl again.

Get ready boys 2027 is our year.
According to AI.
Posted by Handsome Pete
Member since Apr 2019
1813 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

With the cap continuously going up, $1 spent 3 years from now rather than today is more effective because it's a smaller % of the cap. Plus, players are going to continuously get more expensive as the cap rises. It makes some sense to spend today using tomorrow's dollars at a lower rate.

Intellectually I agree with this. Where this strategy hurts is when an expensive FA signing is a dud (ie Carr). With normal cap management, by the time we realized Carr wasn't going to work most of his cap hit would have been accounted for, making it qucker to move him off the books and spend that money on another player. Intellectually, I know we had more money for players in Carr's first year or two with the Saints strategy, so having less money later is really the same thing, if not better because the cap will be higher. It just doesn't feel that way.
Posted by WhoDatNC
NC
Member since Dec 2013
13446 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:25 pm to
So AI is thinking what we knew all along? Got it….
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172075 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

Utilizing future cap space can lead to significant financial strain in subsequent years.
yea so scientific other than the fact that this proves nothing wrong about perpetual borrowing.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172075 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:26 pm to
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
31429 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:27 pm to
We can borrow money, but we can't waste cheap asset (I. E. The draft)
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
59343 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

The biggest issue is always having to keep cap leveraged vets over cheaper and younger talent.

In poker it’s called pot committed. Loomis is always pot committed to vets and lets players like Baun , Hendrickson, and others walk. If our cap was in order we could keep cheaper younger talent and let prices out, past prime vets walk.


It’s worse than that. We have players that we can’t (won’t) cut that have no more value in the league because they cost more to cut than to keep.
This post was edited on 3/13/25 at 6:36 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172075 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:33 pm to
Every player kept has retained a value worth keeping.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
70719 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:34 pm to
"Well, there you go".
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3028 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:35 pm to
quote:

because we've basically already escaped.


We literally have to watch another entire season of Carr because we can’t afford to fire him. And then next year we take a $60M cap hit just to watch him leave. 70 million if you want him to stay. You might as well just hold on to him at that point. There’s only a $10M difference in cap hit so why not just keep him? That’ll be the argument.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172075 posts
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:36 pm to
quote:

And then next year we take a $60M cap hit just to watch him leave. 70 million if you want him to stay. You might as well just hold on to him at that point. There’s only a $10M difference in cap hit so why not just keep him? That’ll be the argument.


You have to stop broadcasting how stupid you are.
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