OK, OK, OK ... stop laughing. I DO NOT think that we are going to make the playoffs. It's unlikely. But there's more of a chance than many of you think. The 538 computer has it at 20%, which seems about right to me. Here's why:

1) Our starters are winning their minutes. This has been highlighted by Shamit and was also in ATL's post earlier that our top four-man group (Graham, NAW, Herb, Jonas) has a +19 net rating.

When Zion and BI are back, then we'll have guys like Hart and NAW anchoring the 2nd unit, instead of Temple and Kira. And, as ATL pointed out in his post, Kira out on the floor with Zion is a different Kira than the Kira we've seen out there with Sato.

2) Zion is going to be better than he was last season. I know that a lot of you don't believe this right now, but he is. Yes, he's overweight now, but he can take a lot of weight off in the next three weeks. Look, I've lost 15 pounds in a month twice in my life, and I weigh a lot less than Zion. He'll be in shape when he comes back---that's partly what this delay is for.

And we know that he's now extremely confident in the midrange jumper that he worked on early in the summer, before his injury. That's going to produce a lot of points and open everything up even more, because teams won't just be able to guard the rim.

Even more than that, though, we're going to see marked defensive improvement from last season. Zion was already significantly improving on the defensive side of the ball last season, and that was with SVG's unfortunate system. Willie Green has the whole team working harder on defense, and I think that Herb's energy is infectious.

3) Josh Hart is better. I can't believe that we haven't had a dedicated thread about him. Have y'all seen how smooth his new fadeaway jumpshot is? We've missed Hart for so many games, and I think we'd have won a couple of them with him. He's hitting 56% of his shots overall, and his 3pt shooting is up to 37%.

I didn't think that he was worth $13 million per (and that the contract was just about trading him), but he's showing otherwise.

4) Valanciunas is hitting 3s. One of the reasons that some people didn't think that he was the right fit with Zion because "he's not a floor spacer." Well, he is indeed a floor spacer this season. And he's hitting a ridiculous 55% right now on 12-22 shooting. And how much more open is he going to be on those 3s when Zion is collapsing the paint?

5) We're playing so many young players. We have one rookie starting and another as a key rotation piece, and rookies improve a lot during the season. Herb and Trey are going to be so much better in a couple of months. And it's simply very unlikely that Kira, Naji, and Jaxson have peaked.

I think a lot of y'all have underestimated the impact of not having Hart and Herb for multiple games. When we're already missing our two best players, missing another two of our top seven players has simply been too much to overcome. Those impacts are cumulative---we're going to be really good.

To have a chance to make the playoffs, we have to get Zion back by December 5th or so, and he has to be ready to play a regular number of minutes (which I think that he will). In the meantime, we need BI back for tomorrow or Monday, and we need a streak of health otherwise.

I just think it's too soon to give up and run the tank (especially since we can't run it anyway). I still want to hold on to hope.