re: We are a deep team

quote:

---

Temple is definitely a plus rotation guy

---

!5 years later and some are still underrating Garret Temple.

Coaching change is a net positive. Better effort and focus by the players expected. Defense will be improved. Our free throw and 3 point averages should be better. With last year's net point difference at only a negative 0.3 per game, a number of close losses and blown leads, I believe we will be significantly better barring a lot of injuries.

Compared to last year's starters:

BI- same to slightly better this year

Zion- at least slight improvement from this young player

Adams- I think JV is a moderate improvement offensively and holds his own with Adams on the boards and defensively.

Lonzo- I think Graham will be a scratch versus Lonzo overall at a much cheaper salary

Bledsoe: was horrible last year. Pick any of our guards and will be an improvement.

Bench from last year:

Hart: same or better if he can hit threes better

Johnson: Murphy a definite upgrade

Redick: Temple and Satoransky are upgrades

Naji: improved from last year

Kira: at least slight improvement from last year

Didi: won't get nearly the minutes this year, thankfully as he is not ready.

Jaxson: slightly better if clear to play

Willy: same to slightly better

Iwundu, Gabriel, Melli: better players to fill these minutes

I believe that there are a lot of reasons to believe Griffin has got a lot of things right this off season. The time it has taken to get here, the mistakes and subsequent draft capital cost, and the lack of a big free agent splash are all fair areas to grade against him.

I like to consider my predictions as a bell curve. I would put the most likely result for this year to be the 8th spot in the west. I would say there is around a 16 percent chance we get a 6th seed or better and a 16 percent chance we are 11th or worse (1 standard deviation).

Go Pels!!

So, what is your prediction, then?

IF the coach was the right pick, we will be better. When you consider our team age and amount of close losses, it isn't unreasonable to say we will be better (assuming no big injuries).

Yall are right that the league is more dynamic than static...but we also are set to improve more dramatically than most teams.

quote:

---

The league isn't static. Nobody else stood still. All the others teams and players evolve as well. You can make moderate to great improvements and still be worse. You have to compare yourself against other teams to gauge your future success.

---

What happens most of the time is that people assume their current players will play the way that they played the year before, and that younger players will improve.

That's actually what's happened to us the last couple of years. We signed Derrick Favors and expected to him to play at the level that he had played the year before in Utah, and he did not. He aged. (And he aged a lot more this past year, when he was just horrible in Utah as Gobert's backup.) Favors' decline was a significant factor in our failure to make the playoffs two years ago.

Last season, we expected JJ Redick, Nicolo Melli, Steven Adams, and Eric Bledsoe to play at the level of their prior year. They did not. They aged, with devastating consequences for our record.

Are there younger players who love money and partying more than the game and take a step back at a younger age? Sure. Are there players who decline because of an injury? Sure. Are there older players who develop their skills and improve? Sure. But all of those are the exceptions.

For some players, through a mix of intense workouts, very careful consideration of diet, luck, and some good HGH, the decline is slow. For others, they age almost overnight.

At 29 years old, could Jonas Valanciunas significantly decline this year? YES. In my opinion, that's one of the bigger risks to our success this upcoming season. In fact, we should expect his play to decline somewhat.

Could Garrett Temple (35) or Tomas Satoransky (29) significantly decline this season? Yes, though we are depending on their play a lot less than we are on that of Valanciunas.

The other 9 players on our list are all 27 years old or less.

Men generally hit their athletic peak at 26 years old. A study of athletes at the 2012 Olympics found that the average age of male athletes was 27, but that would drop a little if you took out the sports that older participants can do well in, such as shooting, sailing, triathalon, and the marathon.

Again, our team only has three players older than 26. As long as we don't see a significant drop from Valanciunas, then our squad should significantly improve, even before we consider the coaching change or the value of swapping Bledsoe/Adams/Lonzo for Graham/Valanciunas/Murphy.

Culver, Juancho, Rondo, Adams, Merrill, Oturu, and Ziare Williams?

While losing Valanciunas and Grayson Allen?

The Grizzlies are going to take a huge step back this season, IMO.

From their starting lineup they are losing JV and adding back Jaren Jackson and Steven Adams. Add internal growth and that is a better net unit.

On the whole, when you factor in internal growth(like we all want to do with our Pels), the Grizzlies have every chance to be as good or better then their team last year. Melton, Bane, Morant, Jackson, Tillman, Clarke, if you apply the same Pelicans argument, will all get better. You lost Grayson Allen(who isn't some needle mover) but brought in Patrick Beverly. And they have the best young coach in the league.

Y'all tried to do this shite last year too. Acted like the Grizzlies are going to magically turn to shite when there is no real indication of that. They are going to be in the mix all year for the 7-10 seed barring major injury. Can the Pels be better than them? Absolutely, will they? We've lost that bet two years in a row now. It's not a given.

They are a deep and well put together roster that embodies the term synergy.

They can play big, small, bomb threes, attack the rim, defend, put up buckets, and move the ball well. With a really good coach managing everything.

9 of their 12 projected rotation players, 4 of their 5 starters, will all be under 26.

By GOP's logic that means those players should continue to grow and improve.

The rest of the league isn't static.

I think the Pels can surpass them if everything falls into place, but the Grizzlies could also just get better and keep trending with us.

quote:

---

!5 years later and some are still underrating Garret Temple.

---

This is a self-refuting statement. He was an average rotation guy that’s now old as frick

quote:

---

From their starting lineup they are losing JV and adding back Jaren Jackson and Steven Adams. Add internal growth and that is a better net unit.

---

memphis fans/bloggers wanted to move jv so jjjr could play center.
they added two young top 10 first round athletes. Culver is their hayes.
Zaire Williams could not shoot in summer league. awful. murphy3 looking better and better.
clarke was shooting better from out when he reinjured his thigh.
it's going to take a trip to Lourdes for jaren to take these guys to the heights.
I doubt it.
they have one more monster move left.
18 guys. three guys and the laker first gets one really good one. move clarke. move tyus.
juancho.
they got Culver for nothing!

I am on record as being opposed to taking hayes at all or ziaire Williams. no one high who can't shoot. not Culver at 6 either but as a throwin sure. maybe he can learn.
memphis is not close.
Williams was a waste.
reached. flopped.
maybe it's a small sample size.
the skinny guard hyland who lit up the combine did an encore in summer league.

I know hayes has come along.
but it's two years down the drain.
some more ready rookies featured in nice playoff runs.
herro in hayes class.
herro was Holy in ncaa.
hayes barely played.
wtf.
the Kentucky guard maxie proved you guys right. he played well in nba playoffs.
so you don't have to hope that discipline and humility come along with height or speed.
you learn shooting by practice and study. every skill is learned fastest and even better with feedback.
submitting to the process.
Simmons.