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Started By
Message
We are a deep team
Posted on 8/21/21 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 8/21/21 at 12:21 pm
When you look at our roster, we have 12 guys who I believe are positive NBA rotation players:
Zion
BI
Graham
Jonas
NAW
Naji
Hart
Satoransky
Kira
Murphy
Jaxson
Billy
I recognize that Billy might not be a plus rotation player in other situations, but he is one when he shares the floor with Zion.
I also know that many of us think of Garrett Temple as a plus rotation player, but I am hesitant to put him in that category, because (as we have recently been reminded) older players can suddenly decline.
But Temple could still possibly be a plus rotation player for us, and Herb and Didi could also contribute valuable minutes in situations other than mop-up and injury.
And all of them are on good contracts. So, can we stop with the posts about acquiring Decent Player? We don't need Decent Player. He doesn't help us win any more games.
There's no reason for us to cut someone to use the MLE on Paul Millsap. There's no reason to waste another thought on Lauri Markkanen.
The only players we should be looking to acquire now are guys like Great Player, or at least Plus Starter.
Zion
BI
Graham
Jonas
NAW
Naji
Hart
Satoransky
Kira
Murphy
Jaxson
Billy
I recognize that Billy might not be a plus rotation player in other situations, but he is one when he shares the floor with Zion.
I also know that many of us think of Garrett Temple as a plus rotation player, but I am hesitant to put him in that category, because (as we have recently been reminded) older players can suddenly decline.
But Temple could still possibly be a plus rotation player for us, and Herb and Didi could also contribute valuable minutes in situations other than mop-up and injury.
And all of them are on good contracts. So, can we stop with the posts about acquiring Decent Player? We don't need Decent Player. He doesn't help us win any more games.
There's no reason for us to cut someone to use the MLE on Paul Millsap. There's no reason to waste another thought on Lauri Markkanen.
The only players we should be looking to acquire now are guys like Great Player, or at least Plus Starter.
This post was edited on 8/21/21 at 12:35 pm
3
Posted on 8/21/21 at 12:31 pm to GOP_Tiger
If they stagger Zion/BI again to maximize the bench players it's the kind of team that will run you into the ground in the regular season. In the playoffs opposing teams will be better at forcing the role players to step up, so they might be a 1st round exit without a 3rd star, but they should make the playoffs because of the depth.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 12:39 pm to TigerinATL
I'm personally not sold on Naji, Kira, and Jaxson being NBA rotational players just yet, at this point I should say.
Jaxson was making great strides at the end of last season though, he looked like a completely different player. Would have loved to see him in SL.
Jaxson was making great strides at the end of last season though, he looked like a completely different player. Would have loved to see him in SL.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 1:03 pm to CP3forMVP
The single and only reason you might not consider Naji as a legit rotation player, should be his experience. If Hart is, then Naji is. It's just that Naji is going into his second season.
If Jaxson is similar or better than the second half of last season, then he definitely is.
Kira, I would agree. He's solid in spurts, but he has a lot to improve on. It will be interesting to see what his minutes look like, because I would play Sato over him as of right now.
If Jaxson is similar or better than the second half of last season, then he definitely is.
Kira, I would agree. He's solid in spurts, but he has a lot to improve on. It will be interesting to see what his minutes look like, because I would play Sato over him as of right now.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 1:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Temple is definitely a plus rotation guy
Posted on 8/21/21 at 2:59 pm to 504Voodoo
I think this team is a really good point guard from making a deep playoff run. Look at what Atlanta did last year. Zion is a generational talent and is only going to get better. Put the spotlight on some of our other guys on national TV and watch how much bette4 our defense gets.
It’s intoxicating when ur winning, everyone’s game is elevated. We need to get to the 2nd round this year.
It’s intoxicating when ur winning, everyone’s game is elevated. We need to get to the 2nd round this year.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 3:23 pm to Wadey
'21 Pels... Better than '20 Hawks. Dead Serious. If NAW gives you Bogdanovic type impact and Trey gives you Gallinari timely 3's, our superstars are better than theirs.
Now, I didnt say '21 Hawks bc I believe they are officially a bonafide contender after the draft. They hands down have the best bench in the League. Their 2nd unit could be a legit starting 5 if it was 2 years from now. They have no dropoff at any position and Cooper/Johnson is Trey/Collins lite. No need to run different sets. Plug and play. If Cam is the same guy from here on out that he was in their last game, its Brooklyn and Altanta in the East and I honestly think its 50/50.
Now, I didnt say '21 Hawks bc I believe they are officially a bonafide contender after the draft. They hands down have the best bench in the League. Their 2nd unit could be a legit starting 5 if it was 2 years from now. They have no dropoff at any position and Cooper/Johnson is Trey/Collins lite. No need to run different sets. Plug and play. If Cam is the same guy from here on out that he was in their last game, its Brooklyn and Altanta in the East and I honestly think its 50/50.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 3:27 pm to irvchilichill1
Bucks repeat. Nets don't even make conference finals, after the Sixers get Lillard. Hawks barely make the playoffs, flash in the pan.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 4:21 pm to brmark70816
Hawks had like the best record in the nba over the period of 3 months. I hardly think they are flash in the pan. They have depth everywhere and a top 5 ish offensive player in Trae at the top.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 4:21 pm to brmark70816
quote:
Hawks barely make the playoffs, flash in the pan.
U trippin dude... If Pels could swipe 2 players off just the Atlanta bench, say Cam Reddish or Bogdanovich and a Jalen Johnson, we would be saying this team is Top 3 in the West and legit title contenders if everyone played to their basic potential.
Atlanta goes into the season as a projected 2nd seed and 1st if the Big 3 for Brooklyn has a few setbacks like this past year. Every 1 of Atlanta's players should further develop and be even better this year even if its nominal, sans Solo.
Dunno what u thinking my man. They beat Philly (again), Heat (in 6), and Celtics (not even close). They were healthy Trey and Cam from beating Milwaukee this past year and they lost P.J. Tucker and Forbes (in 6).
Barring internal strife or a rash of key injuries, as the Eastern teams are constituted, TODAY (reserving right to change one's opinion at the trade deadline bc of possible blockbuster trades obviously), Brooklyn is their only barrier to a Finals appearance this year.
This post was edited on 8/21/21 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 8/21/21 at 5:05 pm to irvchilichill1
The Bucks are deeper than last year and Giannis took another step. They figured it out. They are about to go a Dynasty type of run. They have the best player and they grind, no weaknesses.
Atlanta is about to hit some walls. I'm here in town and the rumors are heating up. They got guys fighting over minutes and some want to go. Reddish has the big head. The vets are eyeing the door. I believe they take a step back and everybody is going to target them. They showed out on a bunch of teams and got a rep..
Atlanta is about to hit some walls. I'm here in town and the rumors are heating up. They got guys fighting over minutes and some want to go. Reddish has the big head. The vets are eyeing the door. I believe they take a step back and everybody is going to target them. They showed out on a bunch of teams and got a rep..
Posted on 8/21/21 at 6:22 pm to lsukicker436
quote:
The single and only reason you might not consider Naji as a legit rotation player, should be his experience. If Hart is, then Naji is. It's just that Naji is going into his second season.
If Jaxson is similar or better than the second half of last season, then he definitely is.
The OP asked “positive NBA rotational players.” I think both are rotational players for this team, but I can’t say they are definite plus players. I also can’t say they’re rotational players for every team in the league. They may very well end up being so, but I think you have to be a bit homerish to say both those guys are positive rotation guys today.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 7:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
Let's look at the team with 538's RAPTOR index. For those who are unfamiliar, RAPTOR goes beyond box scores to incorporate player tracking information (e.g. opponent shooting percentage when a player is the closest defender), as well as on/off data, to create an estimate of how many total points positive or negative a player contributes per 100 possessions.
If we limit ourselves to players who played at least 200 minutes last season, then there are 440 qualifying players. Only 178 of them have a positive rating, however, which is because better players play more minutes (duh).
Since there are 30 teams in the league, that means that a normal team has six players who produce above-average play. We had five last season, of whom three are returning:
Zion 3.0
BI 1.3
Lonzo 1.8
Adams 0.5
Hart 0.8
All four players acquired via trade have positive RAPTOR ratings:
Satoransky 0.1
Temple 0.2
Graham 2.4
Valanciunas 2.6
Since the vast majority of positive players are starters, obviously, a "plus rotation player" might be someone with only a slightly negative rating. Such a player would still contribute a significant number of wins over replacement.
If we decide to expand "plus rotation player" to include those slightly negative players who still contributed at least 1 win over a replacement player, that would expand the league number to 227 players -- about 7.5 players per team. Since we limited our initial selection to the 440 players with at least 200 minutes last season, we have now have labeled as "plus rotation player" the top half of the players who actually played significant minutes in the league last season.
For us, that now includes:
Willy: 0.0 RAPTOR, 1.2 WAR
NAW: -0.6 RAPTOR, 1.1 WAR
Jaxson: -0.4 RAPTOR, 1.1 WAR
Objectively, then, we can say that this year's squad has 10 players played at the level of "plus rotation player" last season.
Naji's defense got him close, at a -0.7 RAPTOR and 0.8 WAR. Since Naji started the season with the G-League and WAR depends significantly on minutes played, I feel confident that Naji will be a plus rotation player this season, even without any improvement in his play.
Obviously, my inclusion of Trey Murphy as a plus rotation player is projection, but I think we would all be comfortable in that projection.
Out of my original list, that only leaves out Kira, who had a -1.8 RAPTOR and only 0.4 WAR. Kira would need to significantly improve to make this list. While I do expect Kira to improve, I concede that it is questionable whether he will become a plus rotation player this season, as defined by RAPTOR.
Nevertheless, if we go by last season's numbers, and if we add Naji and Trey Murphy, my initial count of 12 "plus rotation players" is correct, as we would drop Kira and add Temple.
If we limit ourselves to players who played at least 200 minutes last season, then there are 440 qualifying players. Only 178 of them have a positive rating, however, which is because better players play more minutes (duh).
Since there are 30 teams in the league, that means that a normal team has six players who produce above-average play. We had five last season, of whom three are returning:
Zion 3.0
BI 1.3
Lonzo 1.8
Adams 0.5
Hart 0.8
All four players acquired via trade have positive RAPTOR ratings:
Satoransky 0.1
Temple 0.2
Graham 2.4
Valanciunas 2.6
Since the vast majority of positive players are starters, obviously, a "plus rotation player" might be someone with only a slightly negative rating. Such a player would still contribute a significant number of wins over replacement.
If we decide to expand "plus rotation player" to include those slightly negative players who still contributed at least 1 win over a replacement player, that would expand the league number to 227 players -- about 7.5 players per team. Since we limited our initial selection to the 440 players with at least 200 minutes last season, we have now have labeled as "plus rotation player" the top half of the players who actually played significant minutes in the league last season.
For us, that now includes:
Willy: 0.0 RAPTOR, 1.2 WAR
NAW: -0.6 RAPTOR, 1.1 WAR
Jaxson: -0.4 RAPTOR, 1.1 WAR
Objectively, then, we can say that this year's squad has 10 players played at the level of "plus rotation player" last season.
Naji's defense got him close, at a -0.7 RAPTOR and 0.8 WAR. Since Naji started the season with the G-League and WAR depends significantly on minutes played, I feel confident that Naji will be a plus rotation player this season, even without any improvement in his play.
Obviously, my inclusion of Trey Murphy as a plus rotation player is projection, but I think we would all be comfortable in that projection.
Out of my original list, that only leaves out Kira, who had a -1.8 RAPTOR and only 0.4 WAR. Kira would need to significantly improve to make this list. While I do expect Kira to improve, I concede that it is questionable whether he will become a plus rotation player this season, as defined by RAPTOR.
Nevertheless, if we go by last season's numbers, and if we add Naji and Trey Murphy, my initial count of 12 "plus rotation players" is correct, as we would drop Kira and add Temple.
This post was edited on 8/21/21 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 8/21/21 at 7:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
As an aside, Bledsoe's RAPTOR was -2.2, so the team should have been better with NAW, Naji, or even Kira starting ahead of him. Which everyone except SVG could see, of course.
The only worse RAPTOR scores on the team were for James Johnson and Wes Iwundu, both of whom were very bad (-4.1 and -5.9, respectively).
The only worse RAPTOR scores on the team were for James Johnson and Wes Iwundu, both of whom were very bad (-4.1 and -5.9, respectively).
Posted on 8/21/21 at 7:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
Another note: BI's defensive RAPTOR was the worst on the team, even worse than Bledsoe's. Just a small defensive improvement from BI should really help the team win more games. I think that this is perhaps Willie Green's single biggest opportunity to have an impact.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 8:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
I don't know if you should show this stat index to 3piecespicy. According to it, Beldsoe finished with a better ranking and WAR than Colin Sexton..
Worst defender in the league? Bryn Forbes. Lots of people really like him too.
2nd worst defender? 3 way tie. Trae Young, Lonnie Walker and Ja Morant. It actually ranked Morant as 188 (tied with Markkanen)..
Worst defender in the league? Bryn Forbes. Lots of people really like him too.
2nd worst defender? 3 way tie. Trae Young, Lonnie Walker and Ja Morant. It actually ranked Morant as 188 (tied with Markkanen)..
This post was edited on 8/21/21 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 8/21/21 at 8:47 pm to brmark70816
Morant has definitely been overrated, and the Grizz are really going to suffer from the loss of Valanciunas. I wonder if they will end up tanking to a top-5 pick.
Posted on 8/21/21 at 9:11 pm to Wadey
nm
This post was edited on 8/21/21 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 8/21/21 at 10:27 pm to 504Voodoo
quote:No he is not. Actually on a solid playoff team, many of those players would need to step up their games to be solid rotation guys.
Temple is definitely a plus rotation guy
Posted on 8/21/21 at 10:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Morant has definitely been overrated, and the Grizz are really going to suffer from the loss of Valanciunas. I wonder if they will end up tanking to a top-5 pick.
Statements like this really demonstrate how easy it is to build the narratives we want.
Morant, like BI, like Zion, has every reason to keep getting better, same with all their young guys. They will also have Jaren Jackson back, who, before Morant got there, was being called the games next great unicorn big. Slots perfectly with Morant. Works well with Adams, can go big, small, with spacing, add spacing to bigs that don't bring it. Added two culture bringing guards that can foster a gritty mentality to go with a number of really good defenders and solid depth. Great young proven coach that gets the best out of players.
All that would be what we would be telling ourselves if we were fans of the Grizzlies, and the thing is, it could end up being the case.
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