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re: Solmon Hill to Pels 4yr/50 potential 2 mill for good behavior on line

Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:01 pm to
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10115 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

Now, life surprises you a lot, so I guess there is that


Well that's a fun little euphemism.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Solomon Hill Verified account @solohill

Looking forward to continuing to live my dream with the @PelicansNBA & excited for the opportunities for my family & I. #thankful #blessed

Posted by PortCityTiger24
Member since Dec 2006
87455 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

I'm in Puerto Vallarta sitting my arse in a tropical paradise. Was sitting at a swim up bar all day and finally came back to the room and my wife is passed out cold now.


Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127757 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:06 pm to
Lots of Brits at this resort. Like I'd say 40% of the guests. I don't do cheesy all inclusive resorts often but I just needed a few days to not think and drink.
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10115 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:09 pm to
From Kumar (BSS guy) on twitter:

Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:11 pm to
Yep, and if he tried he could also find 1000 guys who were bad in year 3 that stayed bad.

Again, its POSSIBLE. But nobody can argue its probable. It would be like me taking a guy who was really good the last 3 years and saying he is going to be bad moving forward. It's possible, and I can find outliers who fell off a cliff, but its not likely.

Possible, not likely.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
287936 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

You know about small sample size


Every player that is picked late 1st/2nd Rd/UDFA starts with a small sample size at some point when they start to get real minutes.

Who was Bazemore last year? Who was Crabbe after 2 years? Draymond green? Hassan whiteside?

I mean frick, how many times do we have to discount small sample sizes before we realize they could go either way? There are enough guys that come out of nowhere for me to be optimistic. You being a "realist" doesn't hold water because every guy with a small sample size doesn't fail. Just say it isn't a player you like.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:18 pm to
You honestly think I would rather be right than have him succeed? I'm not 12.

Again, you can point to guys like Bazemore and I can point to hundreds of guys who were bad and never got good.

I hope to God that he is good and I can enjoy this team these next few years, but there is my hope side and my objective evaluator side. Objectively, the likely outcome is poor. That is undeniable. But yes, I have hope that he will be an outlier.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73891 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

But instead of taking the low hanging fruit and attacking me, somebody build a concrete argument with facts, data, whatever, that shows there is a solid chance Hill lives up to being worth 12 % or so of the cap.



Is 12% of the cap too much for him? A guy will likely step in and play 30mpg as a league average player? Cmon

you advocated giving Parsons ~20% of the cap, chronic knee injury and all. You played the 20% to be an insignificant amount. 12%?

quote:

I will be open minded to it and support it if it is well done. Anybody wanna take a shot?


Sure

What does a guy earning 12% of the cap have to do to live up to his contract, in your eyes? What's he gotta average, give me a player comp, or something.

Asik and Anderson were roughly 12% of the cap ea last season, for reference
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
287936 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

You honestly think I would rather be right than have him succeed? I'm not 12.



Based on your gloating in the past,, you surely wouldn't hate it.


quote:

I can point to hundreds of guys who were bad and never got good


What about Hill's sample size do you not think is sustainable?

Does he suck at D? Is he invested & hungry? Based on things I've read today these are 2 of his traits. Have you not been preaching we need guys like this? What are you focusing on that you hate so much? Or is it just that the majority of guys like this are pretenders?
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
13031 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:25 pm to
This deal is towards the better end of the spectrum of today's crap. Outside of a few like Clarkson and the Maxish guys getting max money, it's not that dumb as say Bayless at 9 per or Delly at 9.5 per or Lin at 12 per or turner at 17.5 or moZgov at 16 or parsons at 24 just to name a few. I'll take hill for 12 over any of those deals.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29672 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:26 pm to
Did Solomon officially sign yet?
My guess is he will break his hand signing, or tear his acl getting up from the table.
Posted by Hazelnut
Member since May 2011
16466 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

Is 12% of the cap too much for him? A guy will likely step in and play 30mpg as a league average player? Cmon

you advocated giving Parsons ~20% of the cap, chronic knee injury and all. You played the 20% to be an insignificant amount. 12%?



Not to mention that 12% will go down a few percentage points as the cap rises


ETA: Also, I'd rather us miss on a guy who takes up 12% of our cap than a guy that takes up 20% of our cap. And with Parsons' injury history, I'd say he has just as small of a chance of "living up to his contract" as Hill does.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 5:30 pm
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:27 pm to
I can see why people rarely go against the grain on this board. It's pointless. There is no quality conversation. You just get called a hater and strawmen ensue

Again, the past says the likelihood is that he doesn't live up to the contract. Is that not true? Can we all hope he is an outlier? Sure! But sorry, I am not built that way. I tend to bet on the more likely, not the outlier. Shoot me.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 5:28 pm
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29672 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

Have you not been preaching we need guys like this? W


He has, and most all agree with that.

But when you give a guy $50m, a guy that has yet to really prove himself, he might not be that hungry anymore.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
287936 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:29 pm to
I asked you legit questions and you ignored them. And you want to say there is no quality conversation?

I don't care that you are going against the grain. Just answer my questions and tell us why
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:31 pm to
Just to be clear, yu guys know the cap is gonna go back down in 2018, right? So he will be right at or a little above 12% his last 2 years.

Not that it matters a ton, but I don't like how people act like we all dont know the cap went up. We get it. I wrote about it for years. But 12% should get you a 5th-7th man who not just gets the minutes of a 5th-7th man, but produces at an above avg level. I don't think Hill gets to that point, but we shall see
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:32 pm to
Sorry, your questions were unclear so I ignored them. You basically implied that his small sample size showed good things, which utterly confused me. You said, "Which of them are unsustainable?"

My answer is: None of them. They are all sustainable. And they all say he wont be good.

Does that help at all?
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
50156 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:32 pm to
I've been busy this year and haven't refreshed myself with the CBA in over a year. What's the story with resigning Ryno with his Bird Rights? We have ~$10-12m or so in cap space, how much of that could we spend before re-signing Ryno if we wanted to?
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
10115 posts
Posted on 7/1/16 at 5:33 pm to
quote:

I can see why people rarely go against the grain on this board. It's pointless. There is no quality conversation. You just get called a hater and strawmen ensue

Again, the past says the likelihood is that he doesn't live up to the contract. Is that not true? Can we all hope he is an outlier? Sure! But sorry, I am not built that way. I tend to bet on the more likely, not the outlier. Shoot me.


TBH what quality conversation have you put forth with respect to Hill? You have offered an opinion that you think he will be a below average player, but maybe he will be above average because life surprises you sometime?

You have offered no stats, nor proposed an alternative option for that money. Who could we have signed at SF for $12-13M/yr that would live up to their contract?
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