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re: Pels get the #1 pick, who would you want to draft?
Posted on 4/29/22 at 11:19 am to Soggymoss
Posted on 4/29/22 at 11:19 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Then for this team you're drafting a guy just for him to bust because we don't have the touches or the role for him to be the player he needs to be.
that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.
When you draft a guy that is obviously really good and ready to play, you find minutes for him to play. If that means other guys you think are good don't get as many minutes as before, then so be it.
We literally just saw this happen with Herb.
Maxey went to a good Philly team and forced them to give him minutes b/c he was good enough, and now he's starting. That's how that works.
quote:
Is it? You can't consider a player a bust if they come in and do exactly what you drafted them to do. Overdrafted maybe, but Smith is projected to go in the top 3, so you're not overdrafting him. What makes a player a bust is him not living up to his draft expectations, and Paolo and maybe Chet would be exactly that if drafted by us.
There's been one draft in the last 30 years that didn't have an all star in the top 3 picks, the year Olowokandi was selected 1st, and even in that draft you had Mike Bibby selected 2nd. With the #1 pick, you expect to get an all-star, simple as that. That's what you drafted them for, to be an all-star, not to be the 4th-5th best player on the team and knock down some open 3's for you. Granted they won't be an allstar their 1st year most likely, but you expect to have fringe all-star at worst by year 3, like what Anthony Edwards is showing you.
Not getting an all-star with the #1 overall pick is a bust, simple as that.
Looking at the last 9 drafts not including this one last year, the only players that weren't a bust or all-star level player are Lonzo and Otto Porter. I would'nt call either a bust, as they are both good players, but they without a doubt didn't live up to the expectation of a top 3 pick. They aren't busts in the Anthony Bennett sense, but you are disappointed you drafted them instead of an all-star like Jayson Tatum. That's not something i would say when picking 8th, but when you are picking top overall, you without a doubt say that. Bagley is probably trending more towards those two as well if he can be decent from here on out, but he's not an all-star. Wiseman may be that as well, or he may be a bust.
18 all-stars selected (or future all-stars), 5 busts, 4 role players (with the potential for 2 to be busts).
So what are you looking to draft with a top 3 pick?
Lonzo or Anthony Edwards?
Anthony Davis or Marvin Bagley/Okafor
Jayson Tatum or Micheal Kidd Gilchrist or Otto Porter?
Luka or Morant or Markelle Fultz?
1
Posted on 4/29/22 at 11:19 am to Soggymoss
quote:
If you have 3 guys all rated close to the same, you take the one that fits your team the best plain and simple.
Jabari, Chet and Paolo are all rated 1-3 in no particular order depending on who you ask. You don't take the worst fitting one just because you may have him rated a half point higher.
And also, when I say our own Cam Johnson I don't mean he's going to top out as Cam Johnson, I mean he would be in that role. Jabari is a far better defender and just as good of a shooter coming out of college.
Oh no I completely agree with you, I said as much in my first post. The issue is if you view Jabari as nothing more than a 3&D wing (even if you have him being a historically good 3&D wing) then you don't or shouldn't have Jabari rated closely to Paolo and Chet to begin with.
If you take Jabari in the top 3 you doing so with the thought that he can develop into a guy you can iso, a guy you can put in the PnR, just a guy that when you need a basket you can get him the ball and clear out the rest and he can get it for you. A star or superstar. Not a role player.
This post was edited on 4/29/22 at 11:21 am
Posted on 4/29/22 at 11:21 am to floyd13
After workouts and the draft combine I fully expect the Sharpe kid from UK to move into the top 4.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 11:45 am to Jar_Jar_80
I would probably try and trade down probably - but stay within the top 5. If the Pels came away with anyone of Smith, Chet, Ivey, Banchero or Sharpe I’d be thrilled.
If there was no real return in trading down I would take smith. The potential defensive flexibility and shooting you could have from Herb, Murphy and Smith together would be amazing.
If there was no real return in trading down I would take smith. The potential defensive flexibility and shooting you could have from Herb, Murphy and Smith together would be amazing.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:04 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
We literally just saw this happen with Herb.
Maxey went to a good Philly team and forced them to give him minutes b/c he was good enough, and now he's starting. That's how that works.
What are Herb and Maxey?
That's right, role players.
quote:
not to be the 4th-5th best player on the team
No matter who we would draft at #1, this would be the case for us. AT BEST they would be the 3rd best player.
quote:
like what Anthony Edwards is showing you.
Add Edward's to this fully healthy team as we sit, do you think he's what he is in Minnesota?
No, he's clearly the #1 option in Minny, he would be #3 behind Zion and BI here.
Ideally we get #1 you want to trade out of it and move down a couple spots and still get Smith, but if you can't work a deal taking a guy that fits your team like a glove over the next guy that wouldn't have the type of role/minutes he would need to develop into his full potential is the best thing you can do.
The only way you go for Paolo is if you plan to trade BI or Zion.
We are not like normal teams drafting at the top of the lottery, we have our 1-3 options locked in, we don't have the room for a guy to come in and get 20 touches a game.
This post was edited on 4/29/22 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:12 pm to Jar_Jar_80
quote:I can definitely see him passing Ivey
After workouts and the draft combine I fully expect the Sharpe kid from UK to move into the top 4.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:16 pm to Jar_Jar_80
Sharpe scares me. Plenty of hyped highschool prospects don't translate and struggle being a top pick.
That Hardy kid from the G league is a perfect example. Top overall highschool recruit that's struggled and is now viewed at a top 20ish player.
Huge gamble if you're selecting Sharpe over Mathurin.
That Hardy kid from the G league is a perfect example. Top overall highschool recruit that's struggled and is now viewed at a top 20ish player.
Huge gamble if you're selecting Sharpe over Mathurin.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:20 pm to Kerchek
You get the first pick, you take Jabari and you laugh while doing it.
He is exactly what this team needs.
He is exactly what this team needs.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:22 pm to Broski
One question to ask, is this team good at developing picks? The past 2 season it kind of looked like the answer was no. But you can't deny the improvement from this year's rookie class. The head coach is different but much of the support staff is the same over that 3 year span. So was the difference the rookies, or Willie?
This post was edited on 4/29/22 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:34 pm to Kerchek
quote:
Plenty of hyped highschool prospects don't translate and struggle being a top pick.
Should they not take Chet, Jabari or Paolo because they were hyped high school players too?
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:46 pm to Soggymoss
quote:
What are Herb and Maxey?
That's right, role players.
that's not the point i was making.
The point is they were both good enough to take minutes away from others as a rookie. You don't expect a 2nd rounder, or the 19th pick to come in and start and be good, but when they are good enough and deserving, you find a way to give them the minutes they deserve. No different than if you drafted an all-star caliber player. Just b/c you have a starting rotation that made it to the playoffs this year doens't mean you can't replace someone in it, or adjust how the shots are taken within the team.
quote:
No matter who we would draft at #1, this would be the case for us. AT BEST they would be the 3rd best player.
Yeah. This coming year. try to look past the immediate future. What you would like to see is you draft someone who replaces the production CJ gives you and turns into an allstar. There aren't a bunch of rookie all stars walking around.
quote:
Add Edward's to this fully healthy team as we sit, do you think he's what he is in Minnesota?
No, he's clearly the #1 option in Minny, he would be #3 behind Zion and BI here
You mean add him to KAT and Russell, where you'd expect him to be the #3 option, yet by year 2 he's clearly the #1 option?
If he is the better option than BI and Zion, then that happens organically b/c you give him the opportunity to prove himself.
quote:
We are not like normal teams drafting at the top of the lottery, we have our 1-3 options locked in, we don't have the room for a guy to come in and get 20 touches a game.
when a guy comes in that's good enough to get 20 touches a game, he'll get it. all it means is someone who was getting those touches before, isnt' going to anymore b/c someone came in that's better. You don't hold a player back b/c you have this archaic way of thinking that CJ deserves the minutes and shots b/c he's the vet. If someone is better than him, then they are better than him. ANd i don't expect somoene to come in and take his minutes and shots away a bit, but if they are good enough, they will push him and gradually start getting more shots and minutes and CJ will get less.
you think Kuminga and Wiseman and Moody aren't getting touches b/c Steph/Klay/Poole are too good and they dont' have room for them? Poole was literally in that same situation and busted through and demanded touches b/c of his play. No. those 3 just aren't that good yet.
Maybe the Heat shouldn't have brought Lowry in b/c they already had enough good players in Jimmy/Bam/Herro taking the majority of the shots, on top of Robinson taking 8 3's a game.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 12:52 pm to Soggymoss
quote:
What are Herb and Maxey?
That's right, role players.
I think you missed his point on Maxey. Nobody expected Maxey to play up to the level he did this year, but because he did he took minutes and shots from guys that would have gotten it otherwise.
Which is fine, Philly was better because of it. This is the point here. If you draft a ball dominate rookie and he takes shots from CJ, BI, Zion, etc he will have done so because he would have earned it and the team is better because of it.
Personally I was thinking about all of this this morning, before this conversation came up. I think the "there are only so many shots to go around" thing is incredibly overhyped. You play to strengths, you play to matchups, and you play possession to possession. If you have a group of guys who are only looking for their numbers the team won't be good anyway. But if you have a group of guys that understand "hey, BI has the matchup tonight." Or Zion, or CJ, or Jonas, etc etc etc this team will be great.
This post was edited on 4/29/22 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 4/29/22 at 2:25 pm to Lester Earl
The point is we have no clue how Shapre performers vs tough competition.
Chet, Jabari, and Paola all looked the part. Sharpe is a GIANT question mark.
Chet, Jabari, and Paola all looked the part. Sharpe is a GIANT question mark.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 2:50 pm to SulphursFinest
I would feel out the teams at 3 and 4 about whether they want one particular guy.
I feel we can slide back down and acquire some assets if we don’t just fall in love with, say, Smith or Banchero and feel they are a perfect fit for us.
That being said, Smith or Banchero are the two I want most as they have sixth man potential. Chet is more Zion insurance or a potential JV or Jax replacement.
I feel we can slide back down and acquire some assets if we don’t just fall in love with, say, Smith or Banchero and feel they are a perfect fit for us.
That being said, Smith or Banchero are the two I want most as they have sixth man potential. Chet is more Zion insurance or a potential JV or Jax replacement.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 3:04 pm to teke184
If we trade down, I hope we take a look at Malaki Branham.
Freshman SG for Ohio State averaged 14ppg on 50/40/80. Kids only 18 as well.
Great measurables 6-5', 6-10 wingspan.
Freshman SG for Ohio State averaged 14ppg on 50/40/80. Kids only 18 as well.
Great measurables 6-5', 6-10 wingspan.
This post was edited on 4/29/22 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 4/29/22 at 4:58 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
The point is they were both good enough to take minutes away from others as a rookie.
None of the top 3 are coming in here and taking minutes/touches from Zion and BI. That's the point I'm trying to make.
We don't need to look at guys that HAVE to have touches because less touches for BI and Zion means they're less effective.
Now if the top 3 guys weren't all big men then I would tend to agree with you as Ivey would slot in well alongside CJ, but in this particular draft Smith is the guy in the top 3 for this team.
Posted on 4/29/22 at 5:08 pm to Kerchek
quote:
The point is we have no clue how Shapre performers vs tough competition.
Chet, Jabari, and Paola all looked the part. Sharpe is a GIANT question mark.
That’s what scouting is for
Posted on 4/29/22 at 5:25 pm to SulphursFinest
Who do we take if we get 3 or 4 pick?
Posted on 4/29/22 at 5:25 pm to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
NOT close...Chet...Chet...Chet...for too many reasons to list
Does he play back up 5 if we draft him? That position would be really clogged at that point no?
Posted on 4/29/22 at 5:34 pm to Lester Earl
What is there to scout?
His highschool tape that means nothing?
Individual workouts will teach you nothing, those are meant to confirm what you see on tape.... there is no tape of him.
He's the biggest unknown in this entire draft class. All of that doesn't even count his defensive ability which is even more of an unknown.
His highschool tape that means nothing?
Individual workouts will teach you nothing, those are meant to confirm what you see on tape.... there is no tape of him.
He's the biggest unknown in this entire draft class. All of that doesn't even count his defensive ability which is even more of an unknown.
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