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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:02 pm to TeddyPadillac
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:02 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
The point is there are plenty of guys that can do what Lonzo does for us, for considerably cheaper.
Give us some comparable players that are considerably cheaper that aren’t on rookie deals
3
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:05 pm to TigerinATL
Yeah I think most here who don't want to extend Lonzo aren't saying he's a minimum contract fringe NBA player. He has enough game and plays well enough when he's having good stretch to be a solid NBA player for a long time. But he's not going to be worth whatever he gets on this next contract.
Take him and Hart for comparison. Hart is going to likely get, what $10-12M max (if that)? Do people think Lonzo is worth 2/3 more or double what Hart is? Aren't they both somewhat streaky offensive players that can give you really good defense? Lonzo gives you more in transition assists for sure, but is that really worth the extra salary?
Take him and Hart for comparison. Hart is going to likely get, what $10-12M max (if that)? Do people think Lonzo is worth 2/3 more or double what Hart is? Aren't they both somewhat streaky offensive players that can give you really good defense? Lonzo gives you more in transition assists for sure, but is that really worth the extra salary?
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:10 pm to Lester Earl
There really aren’t many, if any. If you shoot 38 +% with Zo level defense that’s easily 20 mil a year player/Elite 3 & D guy. I think that Harris comparison is a fear with Lonzo but he has way more pedigree and talent then someone like that.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:10 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
And what about the first 15 games of the year?
12.5ppg
3.9rpg
4.8apg
2.3TOg
FG% 40.0%
3PT 32.1%
FT% 58.3%
with good defense.
you good paying that Lonzo more than 20M/year?
obviously no
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:13 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:Well, he's surprisingly become a pretty mostly unique dude.
Give me a comparable player to Lonzo's skillset that makes over $20M/yr?
He's 16th in the league in 3pt attempts per game. If the 15 guys ahead of him, only 5 have a better 3pt% and 2 of those 5 are just barely ahead of him.
So I don't know who his comps are, but the comp would need to be a guy around 23 years old getting ready for his 2nd contract, gonna be tough to get a true comp for Lonzo's skillset based on that criteria.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:14 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Gary Harris is maybe in that ball park and makes $19. But he was paid expecting to get better and he regressed instead.
Peak Gary Harris yes. I think both he and Lonzo are good comparisons. Really good defenders, but not elite enough to stick on the best perimeter player every night and expect them to hold their own. Good 3 point shooters that don't require constant attention. Not much else to their game, although Harris was getting to the FT line and the rim back in his hey day much better than Lonzo can, but you never expect Harris to create for himself or others.
He has never fully recovered from the shoulder issues he had starting in 2019, 1st year of this contract. He averaged 16ppg shooting 40% from 3, 50% from the field for two years and then got that 4/$84, at the same age as Lonzo. Since signing that deal he has fallen off a cliff and can't find his shot, 33% from 3 and 43% from the field the last 3 years. He is in desperate need for a change of scenery, or he's going to be making under MLE money.
But even at his peak, shooting 40% from three playing good defense with no other offensive skill other than shooting open 3's, that still wasn't and isn't worth over $20M/yr.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:30 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Give us some comparable players that are considerably cheaper that aren’t on rookie deals
I already did, but here.
Justin Holiday
Alec Burks
Bryn Forbes
Joe Ingles
Pat Beverly
Norman Powell
Grayson Allen (who i bet won't get $25M/yr even though he's shot over 40% from 3 the last 2 years)
KCP
Will Barton
Sterling Brown
Kyle Anderson
Taurean Prince
Tim Hardaway Jr.
There's only 1 guy there that makes over $12M, Hardaway at $19M, and that's just the list of guys that are shooting a higher 3P% right now that play good defense. Lonzo is 68th at 39.1%. Lonzo is not an elite defender. Good defender yes, but not elite like some of you think he is.
Luke Kennard, who was given 4/$64, shot 40% his first 3 years in the league, average 15ppg last year in Detroit.
I"m not saying all those guys are better than Lonzo, but none of them are the 3rd main scorer for their team, except Barton. They are all good complimentary pieces to a team. Lonzo is a complimentary role player, not a main scorer. he's not elite at anything. You don't pay someone that isn't elite at anythign $25m/yr.
I'm also not saying i don't want Lonzo. But i dont' think he deserves more than $15M/yr, and if he wants more than that, then see ya later.
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 2:53 pm to LesGeaux45
quote:
Take him and Hart for comparison. Hart is going to likely get, what $10-12M max (if that)? Do people think Lonzo is worth 2/3 more or double what Hart is? Aren't they both somewhat streaky offensive players that can give you really good defense? Lonzo gives you more in transition assists for sure, but is that really worth the extra salary?
No offense to Hart, but Lonzo is a much better player.
I was super pissed he was missing everything at the beginning of the season, but he bounced back way more than it could ever have been expected.
I am unsure how much the constant roster turnover the last two seasons have been on the players developing chemistry. I think a small market team can not let Lonzo get away if he keeps up his play even reasonably the rest of the season.
Things that make him unique
He has elite ball handling, passing, and vision for a very long guard. He doesn’t have the mentality that he has to be the primary scorer which can mesh well with our other high usage players. He gives us length in the backcourt and roster flexibility as he can potentially guard bigger guys. He can be an initiator in the offense.
He has shown he can improve over his short time with the Pelicans. He has drastically improved 3pt and ft shooting.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:07 pm to shel311
I actually think that Lonzo is worth $20 million per year.
I would still trade him because:
1) I don't think that Lonzo wants to stay in New Orleans. The rumors coming out are clearly from Klutch and are a obvious signal that he wants out.
2) This team's biggest need is for players who play with more passion and fire. Lonzo is the exact opposite of that.
So, I'm thrilled that he's playing so well, because his trade value keeps going up.
I would still trade him because:
1) I don't think that Lonzo wants to stay in New Orleans. The rumors coming out are clearly from Klutch and are a obvious signal that he wants out.
2) This team's biggest need is for players who play with more passion and fire. Lonzo is the exact opposite of that.
So, I'm thrilled that he's playing so well, because his trade value keeps going up.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:09 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
No offense to Hart, but Lonzo is a much better player.
No he isn't, and if Hart gets to work with Vinson and become a legit 3 point shooter, he'll without a doubt be better than Lonzo.
quote:
Things that make him unique
He has elite ball handling,
No he doesn't. If he did, he'd be blowing by people in the half court all the time. No where near elite.
quote:
and vision
for every great pass he makes in transition, he makes a stupid one. His vision in the half court is average at best. watch the game, not just the highlights on espn.
quote:
He doesn’t have the mentality that he has to be the primary scorer which can mesh well with our other high usage players
He's had several games where he's taking several shots in a row without passing the ball, which should never happen when Zion is in the game.
quote:
He gives us length in the backcourt and roster flexibility as he can potentially guard bigger guys.
Name one time you've seen him successfully guard a bigger guy.
quote:
He can be an initiator in the offense.
If you mean dribble the ball up the court and pass it to Zion or BI so they can actually initiate the offense, then sure, but anyone can do that. His only role on offense is shooting open 3's, and there's nothing wrong with that if he's paid for what he actually does. Anytime Lonzo goes rogue and tries to create in the halfcourt, it's a win for the defense. He doesn't even look comfortable doing it most of the time.
quote:
He has drastically improved 3pt and ft shooting.
without a doubt has improved his 3 point shooting. He doesn't get to the line enough for his FT shooting to matter.
I'm glad that he is trying to focus on what he does well, shooting 3 open 3 pointers, and not forcing the things he doesn't do well, pretty much everything else offensively.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:21 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Give us some comparable players that are considerably cheaper that aren’t on rookie deals
I’d be curious to know how many players have averaged 38% from three on more than 600 attempts the last two seasons, while averaging 6 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal
Without looking I’m guessing none of these guys huh
Justin Holiday
Alec Burks
Bryn Forbes
Joe Ingles
Pat Beverly
Norman Powell
Grayson Allen (who i bet won't get $25M/yr even though he's shot over 40% from 3 the last 2 years)
KCP
Will Barton
Sterling Brown
Kyle Anderson
Taurean Prince
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:30 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
He has elite ball handling, passing, and vision for a very long guard.
quote:
He can be an initiator in the offense.
He's not really those things though.
If he was what you describe, which is an elite floor general, we wouldn't be needing to have a guy like Kira, or some other half-court capable, penetrating guard, a near necessity if we sign Lonzo long-term.
He's a flashy passer that is solid at lobs and transition, can move the ball well from side to side, the former lends well to Youtube highlights and such, but substantively as a floor general, he leaves a lot to be desired IMO. He's pretty average in the PnR, can't collapse a defense with dribble drive penetration, can't create offense for himself or others very well.
And if we are projecting a future where Ingram, Zion, and likely Kira are all likely to be controlling possessions more frequently in the future, does Lonzo, if he's going to be more and more relegated to a 3 and D role, getting 18-25 million make much sense? Alternatively, does Lonzo taking possessions away from Zion/Ingram/Kira make a lot of sense? Then there is the whole glamour market/Chicago smoke signals coming out that he might not want to be here. Which could be toxic to the culture ala Eric Gordon.
To me, you only get into that range if you truly think Lonzo can do the very things he hasn't demonstrated so far, which is the ability to become a three-level scorer that can create for himself and others in the half-court.
I want to see how this plays out another month, which may change my thinking, but if I had a gun to my head today I would sell high and use FA and the draft to bring in depth guys in the mold of Burks or Bullock, or even target Tim Hardaway Jr. or Otto Porter if they aren't gonna get overpaid as well, and hopefully draft a solid wing prospect.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:31 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:So are you telling me that you honestly believe that the staff is not allowing Hart to work with Vinson? You think he has to wait in line to work with the shooting coach?
No he isn't, and if Hart gets to work with Vinson and become a legit 3 point shooter, he'll without a doubt be better than Lonzo.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:32 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
I’d be curious to know how many players have averaged 38% from three on more than 600 attempts the last two seasons, while averaging 6 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal
I think part of the answer is a question: Do we need those extra assists that come with a premium price?
Lonzo + Hart + minimum 3&D
vs. something like
Otto Porter + Hart + Harkless
Resigning both Lonzo and Hart will make it hard to get a big defensive wing that makes much more than the minimum.
They really need to give Gabriel some run so we can see what we have in him.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:36 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
So are you telling me that you honestly believe that the staff is not allowing Hart to work with Vinson? You think he has to wait in line to work with the shooting coach?
We know for a fact this was the case actually.
Hart was on the Redick podcast during the beginning of the season and the conversation of Ingram and Lonzo's improvement/work ethic was being discussed and he semi-jokingly said he was happy for them but a bit annoyed because he was unable to get any one on one Vinson time this offseason because Vinson is basically having his time monopolized by Zion/Ingram/Lonzo.
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:39 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
I’d be curious to know how many players have averaged 38% from three on more than 600 attempts the last two seasons, while averaging 6 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal
None of them, including Lonzo, who is averaging 5apg and 4rpg this year.
How many of them are asked to be a PG?
The point is Lonzo isn't a PG, no matter how much any of you or idiots in the media try to claim he is. His assists are down this year, and his offensive efficiency up even despite his terrible start to the year. His best role is a rebounder push it in transition guy and then a off ball open 3 point shooter in the half court. He and the coaches have recognized that as his best role, and his offensive efficiency is better b/c of it. He's taking more 3's and less 2's, and that's what he is good at.
Him dribbling the ball around in the half court isn't good offense.
His turnovers are down this year, less than they have ever been in his career, b/c we've taken the ball out of his hands in the half court.
and again, there is nothing wrong with any of that b/c we are getting the best out of him right now b/c he's understanding what his role is on offense, and it ain't PG facilitator.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:45 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
So are you telling me that you honestly believe that the staff is not allowing Hart to work with Vinson? You think he has to wait in line to work with the shooting coach?
Well unless you are calling Josh Hart a liar, yes.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:47 pm to Bronc
quote:
And if we are projecting a future where Ingram, Zion, and likely Kira are all likely to be controlling possessions more frequently in the future, does Lonzo, if he's going to be more and more relegated to a 3 and D role, getting 18-25 million make much sense? Alternatively, does Lonzo taking possessions away from Zion/Ingram/Kira make a lot of sense? Then there is the whole glamour market/Chicago smoke signals coming out that he might not want to be here. Which could be toxic to the culture ala Eric Gordon.
To me, you only get into that range if you truly think Lonzo can do the very things he hasn't demonstrated so far, which is the ability to become a three-level scorer that can create for himself and others in the half-court.
I want to see how this plays out another month, which may change my thinking, but if I had a gun to my head today I would sell high and use FA and the draft to bring in depth guys in the mold of Burks or Bullock, or even target Tim Hardaway Jr. or Otto Porter if they aren't gonna get overpaid as well, and hopefully draft a solid wing prospect.
Well said.
I listed Otto and Hardaway earlier b/c both are on teams that want Lonzo. Doing a S&T swap with them in the offseason would benefit both teams, especially if it came with some extra assets for us.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:54 pm to TeddyPadillac
And this distills the conundrum, Lonzo, unless we see a lot more out of him in the next month in terms of being a floor general or three level scorer, projects to be a sometimes transition guard that plays a 3 and D role in the half-court. Where due to Zion, Ingram, and potentially Kira becoming more dominant in controlling possessions, will reduce Lonzo's usage further over time(or worse, create a situation of too many mouths to feed).
However, he is increasingly likely to receive an offer with a salary that pays him like a third or second star off expectations of him growing more in the direction of a full-time floor general. Meaning upwards of or over 20 million.
Plus there is the whole lingering question of his desire to even play here.
However, he is increasingly likely to receive an offer with a salary that pays him like a third or second star off expectations of him growing more in the direction of a full-time floor general. Meaning upwards of or over 20 million.
Plus there is the whole lingering question of his desire to even play here.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 4:17 pm to Bronc
quote:Don't buy that for one minute. He was likely simply joking.
We know for a fact this was the case actually.
Hart was on the Redick podcast during the beginning of the season and the conversation of Ingram and Lonzo's improvement/work ethic was being discussed and he semi-jokingly said he was happy for them but a bit annoyed because he was unable to get any one on one Vinson time this offseason because Vinson is basically having his time monopolized by Zion/Ingram/Lonzo.
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