Good article on BI's value and future of Max Contracts (hopefully)

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There's something to the idea that players like Ingram lose value through sample size. A lot of his value came through projection. Players who look like superstars have an easier time convincing teams that they can still become one after their third year than their eighth. Franz Wagner just got a max rookie extension, after all. The bloom might just be off the rose here. Ingram isn't an upside anymore. He's just a player, a very good player, perhaps, but a known quantity on balance. To be frank, though, that hasn't stopped teams from maxing out their own prime players before. Zach LaVine got the max. Bradley Beal got the max. Tobias Harris got the max. NBA dogma has long-been "pay him now, figure it out later." You can always trade him down the line, right?

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Sign a bad max deal in 2017 and there are ways out of it. Russell Westbrook played for five teams during his five-year super-max that ended in 2023. Sometimes you'd find a sucker that overvalued your guy. Sometimes you'd swap him for another bad contract. Sometimes you even had to pay draft picks to get off him. But it was always doable.

But now? Money is so tight around the league that teams are pinching pennies even on role players. If you get a max deal wrong in 2024, that's enough to ruin your books for years to come. Why do you think there's been so little interest in Trae Young on the trade market? Why were there Karl-Anthony Towns rumors leading up to Minnesota's Western Conference finals run? If you're paying someone max money in 2024, he'd better be producing at the level of a max player, because if he's not, that contract cripples your pursuit of depth. That is especially true of players in the Ingram class who are likelier to be a No. 3 option than a No. 1.

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Teams are still willing to hand out max rookie extensions on potential, but doing so isn't as risky. Aside from the upside that comes with youth and the inherent tradability that accompanies it, the rookie max, barring Rose Rule escalators that are only accessible to proven stars, only counts for 25% of the salary cap in the first season. That's a far easier pill to swallow than the 30% players in Ingram's age range get or the 35% players with 10 or more years of experience can sign for. Maxes for players like Wagner, Scottie Barnes and Cade Cunningham will probably still be the norm, at least for now. But teams are going to draw lines in the sand on players coming up on their third contract. Nobody's getting 30% of the cap on potential anymore. You're worth it or you aren't.

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Ingram is the first high-profile example of this phenomenon. Others will come too. Julius Randle becomes extension-eligible on Aug. 5. The Knicks are asking themselves the same questions that the Pelicans are right now, though in fairness, they have a clearer path to championship contention right now and an owner far more willing to spend, so there's a bit more flexibility there even with OG Anunoby already on a giant contract and big ones looming for Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges as well. Even the Knicks can't afford to pay Anunoby, Randle and all four Villanova players forever without incurring the second apron's wrath. One of those players isn't going to be on the team in two years unless the Knicks have hoisted a trophy by then. Randle, by far, is the likeliest casualty. Porter is in that situation in Denver. Towns is in Minnesota. Either Darius Garland or Jarrett Allen will be in Cleveland. Perhaps both. If there's any question about whether or not you're worth a 30% max anymore, you probably aren't. Cleveland is paying Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. They're not paying four max-ish contracts and they might not be willing to pay three.

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All of this opens the door to a lot of scary outcomes for the Pelicans. They might have to let him walk for nothing. They might be so scared of that prospect that they overpay him without a plan. Eventually, players like Ingram are going to learn from Ingram's example. The market will recalibrate because it always does. But right now, teams are adjusting to the new rules faster than players and their agents will. Ingram is not a max player anymore under these new rules, but as long as he thinks of himself as one, he's going to put pressure on the Pelicans to pay him as such.

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