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re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Posted on 2/1/20 at 12:57 pm to Milesahead
Posted on 2/1/20 at 12:57 pm to Milesahead
quote:
The Houston Rockets became the first NBA team since 1963 to play an entire game without a player taller than 6-foot-6 in the lineup during their 128-121 win over the Dallas Mavericks. Daniel House and Thabo Sefolosha, both listed at 6-foot-6, were the tallest players used in D'Antoni's lineups.
0
Posted on 2/1/20 at 5:05 pm to Milesahead
quote:
When Zion plays the 5, the Pelicans are +40.4 points better than their opponents for a win/loss expected total of 82-0. The 4? 68 wins.
He's sixth in net-rating in the NBA in the past 5 games (+17.0).
He is one of just 5 players averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds per-36. #ROY LINK
This post was edited on 2/1/20 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 2/1/20 at 9:42 pm to Soggymoss
the hornets just put together one of the worst 3rd quarters ever to completely blow their game in san antonio
so portland just isnt gonna lose anymore...cool cool
and for the first time in months portland has moved ahead of us on 538
so portland just isnt gonna lose anymore...cool cool
and for the first time in months portland has moved ahead of us on 538
This post was edited on 2/1/20 at 11:56 pm
Posted on 2/2/20 at 8:17 pm to CaptainJ47
Updated again. What you are seeing is a surging Portland likelihood. The Pels record stands the same. They are winning the ones they are expected to and losing the ones they “should”.
This week the model favors the Pels over the Bucks (slightly) and over the Bulls while they are a slight underdog to the Pacers. We need a 2-1 week.
This week Portland is expected to go 1-2 with their win against the Spurs. We we can get them to go cold it will help but we need to win an unexpected one somewhere.
This week the model favors the Pels over the Bucks (slightly) and over the Bulls while they are a slight underdog to the Pacers. We need a 2-1 week.
This week Portland is expected to go 1-2 with their win against the Spurs. We we can get them to go cold it will help but we need to win an unexpected one somewhere.
Posted on 2/2/20 at 9:32 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
but we need to win an unexpected one somewhere.
.500 will do until last 15 games. By then be in sync.
Most of the last 15 will be vs zombies who are tanking.
A couple with memphis and spurs may really matter.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 7:26 pm to CaptainJ47
Bumped and updated the OP. This will be a fun week. The model predicted the outcomes last week. Let’s get some wins and pull off an upset soon.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:01 pm to CaptainJ47
I am going to guess that our odds improved on 538 (without us playing a game) because Nurkic had a setback in his recovery, and he is likely going to be out even longer than previously expected.
One of the good things about 538 is that they make educated guesses about when players will return from injury, and then they run their computer simulations from that data.
Their simulation gives us a 75% chance of winning tomorrow night, which I think is too high.
One of the good things about 538 is that they make educated guesses about when players will return from injury, and then they run their computer simulations from that data.
Their simulation gives us a 75% chance of winning tomorrow night, which I think is too high.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
Nice win for the Pels. Odds back up. Let’s finish strong before the break!
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:40 pm to CaptainJ47
Still less than 1% chance of winning the nba finals though :/
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:58 pm to EmperorPenguin
Posted on 2/11/20 at 10:00 pm to EmperorPenguin
I will take a post season appearance. If we are the 8 seed it would be fun to play the Lakers.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:16 am to CaptainJ47
Two more big games this week:
1) Pels vs OKC is a game we should win at home.
2) MEM vs POR tomorrow night -- MEM is at home and should be favored with POR on the 2nd night of a B2B. We still want MEM to win that, because POR is still the bigger threat.
And, yeah, 538 now rates our roster as the 10th-strongest in the playoffs (6th in the West). They now, for the first time, give us a 1% chance of making it to the NBA Finals. And that's obviously because Zion's player rating in their system continues to go up (even though he still hasn't played enough to be listed in player ratings on their website).
Their website gives us a 68% chance of winning tomorrow against OKC. That would be another huge win going into the break.
1) Pels vs OKC is a game we should win at home.
2) MEM vs POR tomorrow night -- MEM is at home and should be favored with POR on the 2nd night of a B2B. We still want MEM to win that, because POR is still the bigger threat.
And, yeah, 538 now rates our roster as the 10th-strongest in the playoffs (6th in the West). They now, for the first time, give us a 1% chance of making it to the NBA Finals. And that's obviously because Zion's player rating in their system continues to go up (even though he still hasn't played enough to be listed in player ratings on their website).
Their website gives us a 68% chance of winning tomorrow against OKC. That would be another huge win going into the break.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
We still want MEM to win that, because POR is still the bigger threat.
I’m just not buying this. Memphis is playing too well to write them off because of schedule. They are our biggest threat, I’ll be pulling for Portland to get the W.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 6:45 am to LSU4ever2002
Memphis has one of the top 5 most difficult schedules going forward while Portland I believe is in the bottom 3 with us in that category. Any losable game for Portland we went them to drop. Memphis will take L's going down the stretch.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 7:55 am to LSU4ever2002
quote:
I’m just not buying this. Memphis is playing too well to write them off because of schedule. They are our biggest threat, I’ll be pulling for Portland to get the W.
I agree. I think the models are underselling Memphis. I see them pulling off some upsets down the stretch with the playoffs on the line. Would rather POR win tonight and send MEM into break on a bad note
Posted on 2/12/20 at 7:57 am to Spitting Venom
yes we need POR to win tonight
that’s not even a question
that’s not even a question
Posted on 2/12/20 at 8:50 am to cgrand
We now own the tiebreaker over Portland, and still have 1 game left against them.
We need Memphis to start dropping games to chop down that 5 game lead they have.
The right answer is we need Memphis to lose going forward.
Pels continue winning doesn't help anything if Memphis continues winning.
We need Memphis to start dropping games to chop down that 5 game lead they have.
The right answer is we need Memphis to lose going forward.
Pels continue winning doesn't help anything if Memphis continues winning.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 10:19 am to Soggymoss
No, no, no. Definitely root for Memphis tonight. MEM is going to crash so quickly.
Here's MEM's next six games after tonight:
@SAC
@LAL
@LAC
@HOU
SAC
LAL
They are only going to win two of those six. We're going to catch up to them quickly.
Here's MEM's next six games after tonight:
@SAC
@LAL
@LAC
@HOU
SAC
LAL
They are only going to win two of those six. We're going to catch up to them quickly.
Posted on 2/12/20 at 10:43 am to GOP_Tiger
I got Portland losing 12 more before the end of the season, we will jump them when we beat them on the 21st
I want Memphis to lose as much as possible, 1 for playoff seeding, 2 for Zion ROY..
Portland will finish right under .500, I'm not worried about them
I want Memphis to lose as much as possible, 1 for playoff seeding, 2 for Zion ROY..
Portland will finish right under .500, I'm not worried about them
Posted on 2/12/20 at 10:44 am to GOP_Tiger
To elaborate, Memphis has 29 games left. Two of them are against us, and then there's tonight's game. Of the other 26 games, 19 of them are against teams currently in playoff position.
Oh, and after tonight, of the remaining 28 games, only 12 will be at home, and 16 are on the road. Memphis is going to lose a lot of games.
Oh, and after tonight, of the remaining 28 games, only 12 will be at home, and 16 are on the road. Memphis is going to lose a lot of games.
This post was edited on 2/12/20 at 10:47 am
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