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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
5710 posts

538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
538 NBA Projections

So I was curious how the analytics are showing the season shaking out. As of now, 538 predicts we will go 39-43 and make a run at the playoffs. Interestingly earlier today they predicted 40-42 with a 52% chance.

I will be interested to see how this shakes out throughout the rest of the season. I used the player weighted ones rather than the traditional. We shall see.

1/20/20- 730pm: 61%; Projected 40-42 record
1/23/20- 12pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
1/26/20- 9pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
2/1/20- 9am; 45%; Projected 39-43
2/2/20- 8pm- 36%; Projected 39-43
2/10/20- 7pm- 43%; Projected 40-42
2/11/20- 930pm; 48%; Projected 40-42
2/22/20- 530am; 67%; Projected 41-41

Other contenders as of 2/10
Pelicans- 67%
Portland- 17% Projected 38-44
Grizzlies- 7%; 37-45
Spurs- 6%; 36-46
Kings- 3%; 35-47
This post was edited on 2/22 at 5:46 am


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5808 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
And, as I have pointed out in other threads, that's basically with our current roster. They don't give us much of a boost for Zion's return, because they don't rate players based on the preseason, so they are just using college stats and assuming that Zion will have normal rookie adjustment problems. If they evaluated Zion based on the preseason, we'd be projected to finish several games better.


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cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I think 35 is far more likely than 39 or 40


jprdbulldog20
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
7951 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
538 has us at 50%
espn has us at 9.3%
basketball reference has us at 10.5%

hopefully 538 is the most accurate


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
10% chance sounds about right.
hopefully it goes down to the wire which is about all you can ask for in a season with a 13 game losing streak


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shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
75240 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

I think 35 is far more likely than 39 or 40
35 I believe what give us a losing record from today to the end of the season. That would be disappointing given how easy our schedule is.


WicKed WayZ
LSU Fan
Louisiana Forever
Member since Sep 2011
23500 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I firmly believe that if Zion, Jrue and BI stay healthy down the stretch we finish with 40 wins and make the 8th seed and give the Lakers a tough 7 game series


lionward2014
Notre Dame Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
5954 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
If we are fighting for a playoff spot going into the last 5 games of the season, I don't see how anyone can be upset.


50_Tiger
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
29396 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Absolutely need this one tonight


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cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
they’ve won 16
39 games left so 19 more wins is basically .500

I think it will take 40 to get in but like the above I’ll be happy if they take it down to the last week. A series with the lakers will be insufferable. The less lebron and his butt boy in my life the better


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jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
1946 posts
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re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

make the 8th seed and give the Lakers a tough 7 game series


and you gotta think the NBA would be salivating over that playoff matchup... revenge series for us, Zion against Lebron, AD's bitch ass, list goes on and on

Maybe we'll finally start seeing some free throws soon


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LosLobos111
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
42806 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I can certainly live with just missing it as its lagniappe really.

Either way these last couple of months these guys will be in huge games and it will tremendously help their development as it has already.


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LSU_504
LSU Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Jan 2020
86 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Our schedule is very favorable the rest of the way compared to the other teams currently fighting for the 8 seed. It's not unreasonable to think the Pels go 23-16 (39-43) if not better during this stretch.

They have proved over the last 30 days they can hang with the big guns if they have enough body's healthy, and have taken care of teams they should beat on a fairly consistent basis. If they continue to beat teams they should beat, and steal a game here or there where maybe they aren't expected to win (March 1st plz) then there is a great chance that we can make the playoffs.



irvchilichill1
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jan 2009
443 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
We will need at some point, a 9-1, 8-2, record over a 10 game stretch I believe, to get in the playoffs. I believe we are capable and that it WILL happen if EVERYONE is healthy and playing up to their abilities. Just a matter if Gentry's rotations and in-game coaching allows that to happen. We shall see....


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
here's a good graphic.

Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOvIPFcVUAARSa0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


with a small improvement in defensive efficiency, the pels would be...average (ie: .500 team)


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Schedule strength through Week 13
Toughest: 1. New Orleans, 2. Cleveland, 3. Atlanta
Easiest: 1. Milwaukee, 2. Phoenix, 3. Denver


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 16-27
Pace: 103.2 (6)
OffRtg: 109.1 (19)
DefRtg: 112.7 (26)
NetRtg: -3.6 (24)

Here we go! Zion Williamson is set to make his regular-season debut when the Pelicans host the Spurs on Wednesday. The Pelicans are 10-5 -- with wins over the Nuggets, Pacers, Rockets and Jazz -- since the end of that brutal, 13-game losing streak. They have the Western Conference's easiest remaining schedule, with 26 of their final 39 games against teams currently under .500. And four of those 26 are against the eighth-place Grizzlies. The door is open.


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Who_Dat_Tiger
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2015
5767 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

538 has us at 50%
espn has us at 9.3%
basketball reference has us at 10.5%

hopefully 538 is the most accurate


If youre a homer like me then 538 is right. But the other 2 make a lot more sense since were more than halfway through the season, 5 games back on a division rival currently holding the 8th spot, only have 1 divisional win are competing with 6 other teams for the 8th seed. We likely wont make the playoffs but this team will be fun to watch for the rest of the season anyway.


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20114 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
pels are 11-17 in conference
1-5 in division

here are the 2-team playoff tiebreakers

quote:

Tiebreaker Basis For Two-Way Ties
(1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games


upcoming division games will be critical vs spurs (4 games) and grizzlies (4 games)
This post was edited on 1/20 at 11:53 am


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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5808 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
No, 538's model is the only one that factors in who is playing and who isn't. They factor into our losing streak the fact that we were without Derrick Favors, for example. It's the most sophisticated model. It now gives us a 53% chance of making the playoffs because it's statistically likely, considering that we are going to be playing easier teams and we're getting Zion (though he's better than they are rating him, as I've explained).

What it doesn't factor in is possible trades, which is why I'm not buying their model's belief that OKC is 95% to make the playoffs. With OKC having both Adams and Gallinari on the trade block, I think that it's likely that they will slide.


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