re: Avatar Discussion Thread: Spoilers! Box office. 2 billion & counting

Obviously you've never heard of market indicators. A supposed global block buster would in fact be one.

Sure, but Amazon and Facebook are down nearly 5%, Microsoft down 5%, Tesla was down 10 dollars a share at one point this afternoon, Nasdaq and Dow both down notably, did James Cameron or the Navi do that as well?

People want this to fail so bad they're ascribing global market powers to tie the film with a drop across much of the market....I think this is what they call a "reach"

Context:

quote:

---

Disney shares were trading down more than 4% at around $86 each, hitting a 52-week low for the company that has seen its stock fall more than 40% in the last year.

---

Disney shares have been falling all year(along with much of the market)

quote:

---

The film notched $134 million at the domestic box office during its opening weekend, falling short of analyst expectations of $175 million and Disney’s own forecast of between $135 million and $150 million.

Still, box office analysts aren’t concerned yet. Internationally, “Way of Water” raked in $300.5 million, bringing its total opening weekend number to $434.5 million. The original film, released in 2009, made just $77 million during its first weekend but went on to become the highest-grossing film of all time.

In the backdrop, Disney has been facing challenges since the start of the pandemic, when movie theaters and theme parks were shut down for months. The movie theater industry is still crawling back, with the exception of hits like Paramount Global’s “Top Gun: Maverick.” Disney theme-park goers have also been contending with rising prices.

---

I truly doubt missing 1 million off Disney's domestic forecast is the primary cause of the 4% and not, you know, the milieu of issues Disney has had all year and most companies have had due to global inflation and interest rate hikes across the globe.

quote:

---

The film flopped it's first weekend as far as expectations go

---

1 million off the projection is not a flop, and isn't going to drive down stock prices 4%. Or move the global economy lol.

Again, you are reaching here.

“ Across the entire industry, the domestic box office was up +29% versus the same weekend in 2019.”

You’re ignorance is baffling bud. Grow up and think a bit.

quote:

---

Like I’ve said, and will happily continue saying, this movie will not make what people thought it would.

---

What does this even mean?

People have projected this making anywhere from under 1 billion to 3 billion, are you saying all of those are overestimates?

quote:

---

I think it will be remembered as a disappointment financially speaking.

---

Why is every wishing for this movie to fail?

How about you give me the number you think makes it not a disappointment. I’m not going to go bean count. My point is qualitative, not quantitative. I’m saying it’s going to earn less than its handlers thought they’d make, and that will disappoint them. Is that so hard to understand?

And I responded to a nearly identical comment to your “moving goalposts” somewhere in this thread already. I’m not moving anything. I think people will look back at Cameron’s Avatar sequels as ill-advised. He is not returning to his glory days or anything comparable.

I think the Avatar sequels will be remembered as middling and forgettable spectacle by more people than think they are a work of Cameron’s genius (like so many of his past films). There will be a clear line between his previous work and these sequels. Sure, I won’t be able to “claim victory” here for a few years. But then again, I’m not trying to set up a “claim to victory”. I’m voicing my opinion.

quote:

---

How do you know? What if it legs out to 1.6-2 billion. Would you call that a disappointment?

---

I can’t imagine 2 billion being a disappointment, but I don’t think there’s a way to know a magic dollar amount that is the threshold between success and failure. Do you think there is?

My opinion is really very simple. I don’t understand why you guys seem to be missing it. I think the creators of avatar have misread the public appetite for more avatar movies, so they’ll make less money than they thought they would. It’s that simple.

As far as how we’d know whether or not I’m proven right, I think the closest we will get to proof are news stories that discuss the matter and numbers in the weeks and months ahead, right? I suppose we have expert forecasts to measure it by too, but apparently those are broad. Maybe some shareholder meetings? Unless we expect Disney to come right out and say they made X more or less than their internal goal. And they will never say that. They’ll act like it was a success whether it was or not.

quote:

---

Currently, Avatar 2‘s Monday is emulating a similar Sunday-to-Monday decline to that of Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story which went down -54% over that time span for a $17.6M Monday. Avatar 2‘s Sunday-to-Monday decline is looking like -56% after making $36.5M yesterday.

---

Deadline