re: Avatar Discussion Thread: Spoilers! Box office. 2 billion & counting

I saw the first one and can’t recall a single scene or line of dialog

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How about you give me the number you think makes it not a disappointment. I’m not going to go bean count. My point is qualitative, not quantitative. I’m saying it’s going to earn less than its handlers thought they’d make, and that will disappoint them. Is that so hard to understand?

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No, you're trying to do that intellectually dishonest thing where you don't clearly define your hypothesis until you have a conclusion so you can retroactively point to whichever supporting evidence makes it seem like what you predicted came true.

It's the height of intellectual dishonesty.

Nut up and give a number, 1 billion, 1.5 billion, where is the line that this, and so-called "experts" claim makes this a success or failure? Hell, just link me what Disney, or the experts you are referring to claim willmake this a success(and don't give me that out-of-context James Cameron quote bullshite, he clarified the statements and regurgitating it only reconfirms the dishonesty).

If you are gonna roll back here if this doesn't make 2 billion, I don't think you are saying anything profound, no film since Covid started has broke 2 billion. If you are saying 1 billion, yeah, I'll gladly take that bet, and if it just breaks 1 billion it might not be Disney's best case forecasts, but it still would be the 3rd highest-grossing film post covid and isn't going to derail Avatar 4 or 5. Let alone humiliate Cameron in the way you hope.

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No, you're trying to do that intellectually dishonest thing where you don't clearly define your hypothesis until you have a conclusion so you can retroactively point to whichever supporting evidence makes it seem like what you predicted came true. It's the height of intellectual dishonesty. Nut up and give a number, 1 billion, 1.5 billion, where is the line that this, and so-called "experts" claim makes this a success or failure? Hell, just link me what Disney, or the experts you are referring to claim willmake this a success(and don't give me that out-of-context James Cameron quote bullshite, he clarified the statements and regurgitating it only reconfirms the dishonesty).

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Let me get this straight.

You think I have to guess at a number we both seem to think only Disney knows in order to hold the opinion that Disney’s internal projections were too high for this movie? And the fact that I won’t guess at a number we both seem to think no one knows makes me intellectual dishonest? Ooookay.

You do realize my guess could be completely wrong while my “hypothesis” is 100% correct, don’t you?

Look, I don’t know how many ways I can state my hypothesis clearly. It’s pretty simple and is as follows: Disney overestimated public appetite for more Avatar, and as a result, they overestimated their profits from Avatar sequels.

That hypothesis is based on my reading of the public perception of Avatar. On my opinion of things like its length. On my experience with hearing people discuss movies including Avatar. On my perception of what people want in movies in general. On my perception of the insular insane company that is Disney. On my opinion about why the first one was such a hit versus the circumstances in which this one is being released.

Bottom line: me throwing out some number at you has absolutely nothing to do with my guess unless we actually have Disney’s number, which we don’t.

It seems to me your hypothesis is the inverse of mine. If so, do you really think you guessing at the threshold between success and failure adds or takes away anything from your opinion right now? I’ll answer that for you: it does not. We can’t know who is right without knowing what Disney thought they’d make. And that’s okay. You can still have your opinion that Disney will reach their goals.

Finally, lay off the personal insults. I’m not being intentionally vague so I can run back to a message board and say “I told you so.” I don’t think I’ve been vague at all, actually. I think you just haven’t clearly perceived what I’m saying.

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Bronc

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Alright, Turbo. Do you think it will be a financial success in Disney’s eyes?

Yes, but unless I had some basis to measure the validity of that statement, I wouldn't be running around claiming Disney is disappointed in their financials, overestimated X or Y, will earn less than it's handlers find acceptable blah blah blah. Not without some basis to support or measure that.

As is you are just engaging in wishful thinking and begging the question.

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Seems like Disney went from projecting more than $150 MM to projecting $130 MM to $150 MM, to it actually making $134 MM? Would you say that data point is consistent or inconsistent with my hypothesis? Seems like 134 is a good bit less than 150.

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Projections change all the time, it has zero bearing on what you have stated. Unless you have a report that states Disney is disappointed with the gross so far, or that it is trending to be unprofitable, this changes literally nothing vis a vis what you have stated about Disney being disappointed, below profitability etc.

Like I said, you are trying to keep things as vague as possible so you can do that intellectually dishonest thing and cherry pick the evidence you want to support the vague fact-less conclusions you've already drawn.

I don’t know about all these numbers.

All I know is the only people talking about this movie that I know are in this thread. I don’t know a single person IRL that has had any desire to see this movie

And to those saying “it’s making the same money as Avatar 1”…well that’s a losing argument considering the severely inflated value of the dollar compared to back then.

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What you have to be able to do is adjust your hypothesis once you have data.

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that's literally not at all what you do. You form a clear and concise hypothesis and then test it. You use the summary and conclusion to determine if the hypothesis was correct or not.

So far, you have intentionally kept your so-called hypothesis as vague as possible, and already have a conclusion you want to be true. And in doing so are attempting to frame things in a way that allows you to cherry-pick shite like changes in projections to claim it proves Disney is "disappointed" or less profitable when no such thing has been proven.

Lets cut through the bullshite

Will Avatar make 1 billion? Yes or No

1.5 Billion? Yes or No

Will Disney cancel Avatar 4 and 5? Yes or No.

Nah I’m done with this discussion. You aren’t even trying to understand anything I’m saying.

Also. I’m an actual scientist who is very familiar with how hypothesis and data collection and subsequent experiments go. You sound like an idiot trying to argue that I need to have my guesswork proven before I articulate said guesswork. You should try a new approach next time.

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Nah I’m done with this discussion. You aren’t even trying to understand anything I’m saying.

Also. I’m an actual scientist who is very familiar with how hypothesis and data collection and subsequent experiments go. You sound like an idiot trying to argue that I need to have my guesswork proven before I articulate said guesswork. You should try a new approach next time.

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Cool, I make 850 thousand a year and have a 10 inch dick, I can make shite up on the internet too.

Why are you so scared to commit to a falsifiable hypothesis Mr. Scientist?