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Posted on 12/18/22 at 7:50 pm to DaTruth7
You’re seriously ignorant if you believe this is a failure and the end of large scale theater business
Posted on 12/18/22 at 10:35 pm to RLDSC FAN
I know this won’t be a popular opinion but I quite liked it. Was it the best movie I have seen this year? No. Was it the most beautiful? Yes. I see people pretending the CGI is not even on par with video games. I guess I need to start playing these video games because this was incredible to look at. I won’t be going back to watch it again, and at 3 hours, I probably won’t even rewatch it at home. It’s kind of the problem with these movies. Does anyone care after one watch? It doesn’t have a gripping story or characters. It sure does look amazing, though.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 5:31 am to Proximo
He clarified this in a later interview after this where he said after looking at it it would have to be the 7th or 8th highest grossing to break even. But he’s speaking in general terms. And it’s to break even on the simultaneous production of 2/3 and some of 4. Since 2/3 were shot largely together.
Hollywood Reporter recently penned the budget for the 2nd film around 350 million. Unless they just decided to literally burn a billion additional dollars, this film by itself will not need 2 billion to break even
Hollywood Reporter recently penned the budget for the 2nd film around 350 million. Unless they just decided to literally burn a billion additional dollars, this film by itself will not need 2 billion to break even
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:02 am to Bronc
quote:
We know the budget was around 350-450 million(which might include a bunch of part 3 too, which principal filming is done), and they probably spent 100 to 200+ mil on marketing. Jim’s cut is probably around 15% like the last film(he reportedly made around 350 million), so rough estimate is that if the movie makes around 800-900 million I’d think Disney will be alright. Especially when part 3 is in the can and just needing VFX(which tbf will be probably cost over 100 mil).
Your math/budget estimates seem to be off. The budget is above $450 million for this film alone.
Studios generally need a minimum of 2x just to break even on any movie. With a major release worldwide, it's easily closer to 2.5x. Assuming Cameron is getting 15% like you suggested, it's near 3x if not more.
Conservatively, Avatar 2 will need to be at $1.3 Billion just to break even. And Disney doesn't want to be in the business of breaking even with a franchise installment.
Now, the movie will turn a profit, I have no doubt about that. Probably a damn good profit, but it will not raise the bar in the way that James Cameron is accustomed.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:17 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
The budget is above $450 million for this film alone.
The absolute high end report is 460 million
LINK
And again, that includes footage shot for part 3. Those films were shot together and he already reportedly has turned in a 9 hour cut for part 3. The additional costs will be VFX work and some reshoots, which should be extensive, but you are likely talking about 600-700 mil max for both films. Both doing around a billion would very much return a healthy profit and get them to bankroll part 4 and 5.
Also keep in mind there are streaming sales, blu ray sales, merchandise, re-releases, Disney+ subscriptions, and things like Disney World attractions and demand that add value for decades to come.
People prophesizing Cameron's doom from this film are going to be waiting quite a long time...
This post was edited on 12/19/22 at 8:18 am
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:32 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Studios generally need a minimum of 2x just to break even on any movie. With a major release worldwide, it's easily closer to 2.5x. Assuming Cameron is getting 15% like you suggested, it's near 3x if not more.
You're making some big assumptions. You have no idea what they need to turn a profit. Studios are very good with accounting tricks. A recent example is Black Adam. The budget was 200 mil, it's only made just around 400 mil, but deadline had a report that it turned a profit of 50-70 million.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:39 am to RLDSC FAN
I know there is a mythology around Cameron, and the ungodly expectations for his BO returns, but there is almost 0% chance that Disney bankrolled Avatar 2/3 on the presumption it needed 1.5 billion EACH just to break even.
Needing 3 billion at the BO across 2 films shot back2back just to break even would be mismanagement of funds on an epic scale and beyond anything in Hollywood history.
Needing 3 billion at the BO across 2 films shot back2back just to break even would be mismanagement of funds on an epic scale and beyond anything in Hollywood history.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:44 am to Bronc
quote:
know there is a mythology around Cameron, and the ungodly expectations for his BO returns, but there is almost 0% chance that Disney bankrolled Avatar 2/3 on the presumption it needed 1.5 billion EACH just to break even.
Exactly. It's just common sense
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:53 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
You're making some big assumptions. You have no idea what they need to turn a profi
That type of multiplier is pretty standard (2-2.5x). It takes into account what’s needed due to advertising etc from my understanding
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:59 am to Proximo
quote:
It takes into account what’s needed due to advertising etc from my understanding
Advertising is not part of the budget. That comes out of a yearly bucket the studio uses to market all their films that particular year
Posted on 12/19/22 at 9:12 am to DaTruth7
Avatar - $77 Million Opening Weekend
Avatar 2 - $435 Million Opening Weekend
Are you special? #dumbass
Avatar 2 - $435 Million Opening Weekend
Are you special? #dumbass
Posted on 12/19/22 at 10:19 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
frick Spider and the whole Spider storyline. Tarzan underwater in space, frick off, film. 4. Unobtanium was replaced by something even dumber. Magical bullshite goo that stops the aging process, just stops it, only found in Pandora space whales. frick off, film. 5. The stupid hissing thing, just stop. frick off, Navi hiss thing. 6. I like the movie better the first time, when it was Titanic, or Free Willy 2.
People getting pissed at fantasy and sci-fi concepts in a fantasy/sci-fi movie will never cease to amaze me
Posted on 12/19/22 at 10:43 am to BigNastyTiger417
quote:
Avatar - $77 Million Opening Weekend
Avatar 2 - $435 Million Opening Weekend
Are you special? #dumbass
Pretty funny calling someone a dumbass when you use domestic take on Avatar and Worldwide take on Avatar 2. Domestically Avatar 2 made $134M.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 10:57 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Overseas Actuals for #AvatarTheWayOfWater??came 7.6M higher than estimates despite #WorldCupFinal!
307.6M 5-day opening overseas over 52 markets
#2 highest of Pandemic era only under #NoWayHome’s 340.7M.
The #Avatar??? sequel saw a 441.6M Global opening, #11 highest of all time.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 11:10 am to LSUPERMAN
quote:
Pretty funny calling someone a dumbass when you use domestic take on Avatar and Worldwide take on Avatar 2. Domestically Avatar 2 made $134M.
I mean that's still nearly double the starting position of the first film...
The question is what will the legs look like? Will Monday thru Thursday do 15 mil a day like the first(Im guessing no)? If so we might have some serious legs. 10 mil? solid but not the first film. Less than 10? Probably gonna perform more like a normal Christmas blockbuster. Will Japan circle back based on word of mouth? Will more theaters in China open or is the Covid scare gonna be a permanent impediment? Is India and Korea's surprise love gonna replace losing Russia/Japan underperforming? Lot of what if's still going on.
Domestic and European Christmas/New Years numbers are also a big variable.
This post was edited on 12/19/22 at 11:15 am
Posted on 12/19/22 at 11:14 am to BigNastyTiger417
Go take a look at Disney and AMC stock today bud. Again you have no understanding of cost, sales forecasts, and missing forecasts. You are a damn moron.
Posted on 12/19/22 at 11:17 am to DaTruth7
The whole market is down today, I'm not sure that's telling anyone much.
This post was edited on 12/19/22 at 11:17 am
Posted on 12/19/22 at 11:43 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
You're making some big assumptions. You have no idea what they need to turn a profit. Studios are very good with accounting tricks. A recent example is Black Adam. The budget was 200 mil, it's only made just around 400 mil, but deadline had a report that it turned a profit of 50-70 million.
I understand that, and that's a fair point. My assumptions and presuppositions are made purely on the limited available data.
I've said many times that A2 will be very profitable
Posted on 12/19/22 at 12:39 pm to Bronc
What if I told you Avatar numbers are a reason the market is down? It shows a global appetite for less consumer spending.
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