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re: What started the “going for it on 4th” trend?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:07 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:07 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If you're on the opponent's side of the field, past the 50, if you punt there's a high likelihood that your opponent will get the ball on the 20 (now 25). The net yardage "gained" by that choice is not very good compared to the opportunity you give up in scoring.
Another way to describe it is the field position you lose by failing to convert isn't that consequential compared to your opponent getting the ball at the 25. Losing the opportunity to score is much more consequential than the 20 yards or so you give up every now and again.
Adding to this is the recent trend in rules that favors offensive output. It is more advantageous to maintain the possession because it is inherently easier to score than in the past when defenses could headhunt, and the modern offense of the time was the I-formation.
In those days, it was probably statistically better to punt and play defense.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 8:09 am
1
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:09 am to PenguinNinja
Rules favoring the offense and coaches kind of "figuring out" offense more than they did back in the day changes the calculus. Defenses are less likely to achieve a favorable outcome (stops, turnovers) than offenses are. Penalty against the offense and they lose some yards but get to replay the down.... if your defense commits a penalty the offense gets yards AND 4 more downs to play with.
As a "defensive struggle" enjoyer I wish they would make all offensive penalties (except pre snap) cost a down.
As a "defensive struggle" enjoyer I wish they would make all offensive penalties (except pre snap) cost a down.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:09 am to StansberryRules
quote:
There are essentially two key points that people have to grasp to "get" it
1. The yardage you push your opponent back doesn't prevent them from scoring on their next possession nearly as much as you probably think it does
I think this is the big one, b/c so much of the football narrative was wrapped up in "field position" for so long.
It's like when they would frame 2 teams playing ultra conservatively and not trying to really move the ball as a "defensive struggle".
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:11 am to WylieTiger
quote:
Adding to this is the recent trend in rules that favors offensive output. It is more advantageous to maintain the possession because it is inherently easier to score than in the past when defenses could headhunt
Those rules came in WAY after the "going for it on 4th" revolution started.
quote:
and the modern offense of the time was the I-formation.
That has nothing to do with rules and everything to do with the mindset that I'm discussing (and is the theme of OP).
Being smarter isn't a rule change.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:20 am to PenguinNinja
Dan Campbell
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:22 am to PenguinNinja
The idea that you MUST punt the ball every single time never really made sense anyways. If it's 4th and long, or if the ball is inside your own 30. Then yes, punting is the obvious choice. If you have a 35 yard field goal or shorter, then field goal is the obvious choice.
But if you're at the 45 yard line with a 4th and inches. It's stupid to punt. If you're at looking at a 55 yard field goal, but it's 4th and 1. The best bet is to go for it.
There is such a thing as being too conservative. When you look at things as having 4 downs to gain 10 yards instead of 3, it opens up your playbook that much more. But alas, coaches have a lot more on the line than us. Everytime they go for it on 4th and don't convert, they look like an a-hole. All of a sudden their entire job is at risk because they failed to convert a 4th down, even if it wasn't a logically bad decision.
But if you're at the 45 yard line with a 4th and inches. It's stupid to punt. If you're at looking at a 55 yard field goal, but it's 4th and 1. The best bet is to go for it.
There is such a thing as being too conservative. When you look at things as having 4 downs to gain 10 yards instead of 3, it opens up your playbook that much more. But alas, coaches have a lot more on the line than us. Everytime they go for it on 4th and don't convert, they look like an a-hole. All of a sudden their entire job is at risk because they failed to convert a 4th down, even if it wasn't a logically bad decision.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:33 am to Roaad
quote:
The favoring of offense in all rule changes, and the gradual removal of physicality from the game increased the odds of converting
Most 4th down plays are dives/sneaks and very physical plays.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:37 am to slackster
quote:they are more successful because the game is less physical, is my point.
Most 4th down plays are dives/sneaks and very physical plays.
Not that there are no physical plays. This isn't a contradiction.
Rebounds in the paint and post ups are physical plays, but basketball is less physical than it was.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 8:37 am
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:53 am to PenguinNinja
With the passing game now, field position isn’t nearly as important as it used to be. Before the passing game was as efficient, teams used to punt on earlier downs just to flip the field.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:08 pm to PenguinNinja
Not sure who first popularized going on 4th, but I remember when Oregon would go for 2 after their first touchdown often.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:15 pm to PenguinNinja
Houston Rockets’ 3 ball play during Harden.
Surprised nobody has figured out to start going for 2
Surprised nobody has figured out to start going for 2
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:23 pm to PenguinNinja
Analytics, but also the evolution of modern offenses.
Old school offenses would line up in I-form with 2-3 TE’s in 4th and short situations and the defense would stack the box.
Modern offenses have no problem going shotgun with 3 wide and spreading the defense out. So many options between handing it off, read option, quick pass…and today’s QB’s being more athletic and capable of picking up a few yards with their legs helps too
Old school offenses would line up in I-form with 2-3 TE’s in 4th and short situations and the defense would stack the box.
Modern offenses have no problem going shotgun with 3 wide and spreading the defense out. So many options between handing it off, read option, quick pass…and today’s QB’s being more athletic and capable of picking up a few yards with their legs helps too
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:12 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
It's like when they would frame 2 teams playing ultra conservatively and not trying to really move the ball as a "defensive struggle".
Paul Chryst vs Kirk Ferentz
Chryst punting from the 40, the opponents 40, enraged me.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:36 pm to PenguinNinja
Kiffin does it with our smallest back and it’s infuriating
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:41 pm to PenguinNinja
Some coaches finally got smarter.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:43 pm to Billy Blanks
quote:
Kevin Kelly, He was at Pulaski Academy (Where Hunter Henry went)
He later would get into low level college ball and flame out.
He actually was part of the wave which is incredible.
This.
The onside every kick, never punt.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:46 pm to Feral
quote:
Analytics can’t take into account something like Death Valley at night.
quote:
Case in point, Ole Miss passed up a chip shot field goal against LSU and opted to go for it. They got stuffed and LSU ultimately came back and forced OT, which wouldn’t have happened if OM would’ve taken the points.
Are you going to ignore their touchdown drive where they went for it on 4th down and busted off a 50 yard TD? So they passed up 3 points but later gained 7.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:57 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Paul Chryst vs Kirk Ferentz
Chryst punting from the 40, the opponents 40, enraged me.
Les Miles wouldn't take a chance in 2012 title game even towards the end. There were no other games to play.
Down 21-0 with 2:58, Les punted on 4th and 9.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 4:05 pm to PenguinNinja
The mass hiring of young offensive oriented coaches who are mostly just coordinators posing as HCs started it. Analytics in this context just means accepting dumb decisions based on short term thinking.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 4:36 pm to EvrybodysAllAmerican
quote:
With the passing game now, field position isn’t nearly as important as it used to be. Before the passing game was as efficient, teams used to punt on earlier downs just to flip the field.
Agree with the caveat, but on defense the field position advantage is still significant if you can make your opponent start inside their 10 year line.
This is why analytics rarely support kicking field goals on 4th down inside the 10, and especially inside the 5, barring an end of half or game scenario. Even if you miss on 4th you are likely to get the ball back with really good field position.
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