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re: Very important point with the new OT Rule.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:34 pm to castorinho
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:34 pm to castorinho
Idk Mahomes in OT in the Super Bowl. I’m not really betting on him going scoreless.
0
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:36 pm to slackster
quote:
just don’t get it thinking about it rationally. I’m not 100% convinced it’s the wrong call, but justifying it solely by the 3rd possession doesn’t jive with me.
I think you’re significantly underestimating the likelihood of getting to the third possession.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:39 pm to Weagle25
quote:
I think you’re significantly underestimating the likelihood of getting to the third possession
Maybe, but the 2nd possession becomes sudden death in a lot of those scenarios though. In every one where SF scores a FG, getting the ball 2nd is ideal. In every one where they don’t score, getting the ball 2nd is sudden death. Thats just as huge.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:42 pm to slackster
Kicking off is the right call, but it’s not egregious to take the ball. Good points either way, but kicking off has more positive outcomes IMO.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:45 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:
Good points either way, but kicking off has more positive outcomes IMO.
That’s basically my feeling as well. The 3rd possession seems to be getting too much play when you have no guarantee to even see it.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:46 pm to slackster
I think it depends on who you’re playing.
If I’m playing Mahomes, I’m probably kicking the ball.
If I’m playing Mahomes, I’m probably kicking the ball.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:56 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
As Romo said, maybe he thought his defense needed some rest.
It had to be at least 10 minutes between the Chiefs field goal, and the first play of overtime.
How much time did they need?
Posted on 2/11/24 at 11:13 pm to Bham4Tide
This is complex and giving me a headache
I’m not sure what the right thing to do is
What do the analytics say??
My initial thinking was of course kick and know what you need to do…but it’s different than college where both teams are guaranteed a 2nd possession. So now I’m thinking the right move is to receive
Someone said it earlier…
College … no brainer… defense first
Old nfl overtime rules… no brainer… take the ball
New nfl OT rules… a little more complex
The good news is that a coin flip by itself doesn’t decide games anymore
I’m not sure what the right thing to do is
What do the analytics say??
My initial thinking was of course kick and know what you need to do…but it’s different than college where both teams are guaranteed a 2nd possession. So now I’m thinking the right move is to receive
Someone said it earlier…
College … no brainer… defense first
Old nfl overtime rules… no brainer… take the ball
New nfl OT rules… a little more complex
The good news is that a coin flip by itself doesn’t decide games anymore
This post was edited on 2/11/24 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 2/11/24 at 11:17 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
What do the analytics say??
I believe Shanahan said in post game the analytics say to take the ball, but I still don’t know. There is basically no data on it unfortunately. You’re going to have to piece together situations from other rules to make your argument.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 2:07 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
The good news is that a coin flip by itself doesn’t decide games anymore
And this is very good news.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 3:30 am to lsusa
Here is the debate. For the first possession of the overtime the advantage lies with the team that kicks the ball but if the game remains tied after each team has a possession it then becomes sudden death and the advantage then switches to the team that received the ball because if they score they do not have to stop the opponent from scoring on a following possession.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 3:33 am to MikeD
quote:
Terrible decision for sure
His defense was on the field a lot in Chief's last 2 drives, especially to end the game. They were tired, so he gave them some rest.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 3:42 am to Dubaitiger
When did it change from a TD was the end of OT????
Posted on 2/12/24 at 4:00 am to AcadiaParishTiger
quote:
What do the analytics say??
The analytics are take the ball 1st and 3rd. Its not a massive massive advantage, but it is a decided one.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 5:36 am to QJenk
quote:
Absolutely horrible coaching decision
Goddell called in to Shanahan and told him to take the ball in overtime. Plus, the coin was a double headed coin. You think this was about coaching? They wanted the world to see Mr. Phizer and Tay Tay on top of the world!
-The OT
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 5:36 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 5:39 am to 632627
quote:
With the college OT rules, going second is the clear choice. With the old NFL sudden death, receiving the kick was the automatic choice. With this new NFL playoff rule, there's pros and cons for each and thus no absolute clear cut choice
This is correct.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:26 am to Bham4Tide
Having the ball 2nd is advantageous in every possible scenario no matter what happens on the 2nd possession. A hypothetical third possession is irrelevant in the majority of considerations.
The bottom line is that the team that doesn't start with the ball is not guaranteed any chance to win the game with their offense.
The team that gets the ball second is guaranteed an opportunity to win the game with their offense unless they turn the ball over on special teams before the offense takes the field or their opponent takes the ball first, scores a touchdown, and converts a two point conversion and the odds of a coach actually making the decision to go for 2 after a touchdown in the opening possession of overtime is about as close to 0 as anything in sports.
The bottom line is that the team that doesn't start with the ball is not guaranteed any chance to win the game with their offense.
The team that gets the ball second is guaranteed an opportunity to win the game with their offense unless they turn the ball over on special teams before the offense takes the field or their opponent takes the ball first, scores a touchdown, and converts a two point conversion and the odds of a coach actually making the decision to go for 2 after a touchdown in the opening possession of overtime is about as close to 0 as anything in sports.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:26 am to BoardReader
Analytics don’t take into account you are trying to stop the best QB in football.
Let’s say the 49ers take the ball first and score a TD. Chiefs still get the ball back, knowing exactly what they need to do. They can even go for 2 and the win if they want. It comes down to whether you believe your 2 point offense is better than your defense ability to prevent a FG.
The team that gets the ball 2nd has all the offensive control.
If the roles were reversed, and the Chiefs scored a FG on their 1st possession. What do you think the 49ers would do? I think they’d call plays to go for a TD knowing they’d lose if they kick a FG and Mahomes gets the ball back in sudden death. Shanny even passed up a FG in regulation to go for a TD. If Chiefs score a TD, 49ers are def going for 2.
You should only take the ball first if you believe your defense has a better chance to prevent a FG in sudden death, than your offense has of scoring TD using 4 downs.
Let’s say the 49ers take the ball first and score a TD. Chiefs still get the ball back, knowing exactly what they need to do. They can even go for 2 and the win if they want. It comes down to whether you believe your 2 point offense is better than your defense ability to prevent a FG.
The team that gets the ball 2nd has all the offensive control.
If the roles were reversed, and the Chiefs scored a FG on their 1st possession. What do you think the 49ers would do? I think they’d call plays to go for a TD knowing they’d lose if they kick a FG and Mahomes gets the ball back in sudden death. Shanny even passed up a FG in regulation to go for a TD. If Chiefs score a TD, 49ers are def going for 2.
You should only take the ball first if you believe your defense has a better chance to prevent a FG in sudden death, than your offense has of scoring TD using 4 downs.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:28 am to Smoke239
I heard a clip of Shanahan saying they wanted to be in position to have the ball third.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:36 am to AcadiaParishTiger
quote:
When did it change from a TD was the end of OT????
After probably one of the most entertaining playoff games of all time.
Chiefs Bills two years ago.
Bills scored two TDs and Chiefs scored 10 points in the final 1:54 of the game to send it to OT.
Chiefs got the ball and scored a TD to end the game in OT and everyone was pissed because the Bills never got a shot at scoring and the coin flip decided the game.
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