Favorite team:Alabama 
Location:Fort Payne, AL
Biography:Author of Who Will Cry for the Little Corndog
Interests:Golf addict
Occupation:
Number of Posts:6742
Registered on:11/30/2013
Online Status:Not Online

Recent Posts

Message
quote:

Auburn already tried that


I think Harsin did most of the work for them on that one by bringing a Boise State cheerleader across the country with him
quote:

Bring the goat back for the playoffs. Snatch another natty


This
quote:

Notre Dame still labors under the delusion that they are college football.


Every home game they played ends up on NBC and every road game is pretty much guaranteed to be picked up by CBS, Fox, NBC, ABC, or ESPN depending on who has the media rights yet they managed to come 15th in average viewership this season.

Why P4 conferences continue to give them so much power in negotiation when they're at a significant leverage disadvantage?

This top 12 autobid bullshite is a joke.
quote:

Not really a huge deal IMO…. All teams are effectively assured a spot in the playoff if they finish in the Top10-ish


Then guarantee them a spot if they're in the top 10.

12 is a joke. You're basically saying any school that ranks in the top 12 is subject to be booted from an at large spot for a conference champion unless that school is Notre Dame in which case they have special privilege so some other higher ranked at large team gets shafted instead.

If this were in place this year Miami would be shafted for a team they beat.

Alabama was shite out of luck last year despite being #11.
Notre Dame and BYU were this year despite being 11 and 12.

Going forward any team at 11 and 12 can probably expect to be shite out of luck unless they are Notre Dame and Notre Dame only.

The power conferences should tell ND to join a conference or frick off.
quote:

Wisconsin in Lambo
Rice
Michigan State
At Purdue
At UNC
Navy
Miami
Boston College
SMU
At Syracuse
Stanford
At USC


4-8 B1G #60 FPI
5-7 G5 #126 FPI
4-8 B1G #64 FPI
2-10 B1G #86 FPI
4-8 ACC #94 FPI
9-2 G5 #70 FPI
10-2 ACC #7 FPI
2-10 ACC #87 FPI
8-4 ACC #24 FPI
3-9 ACC #100 FPI
4-8 ACC #81 FPI
9-3 B1G #11 FPI

Their 4th hardest game of the season based on quality of opponents from this season is Wisconsin.

To put that in perspective 4 playoff teams played Wisconsin this year.

Wisconsin was Alabama's 11th hardest game according to FPI. They were Indiana's 7th hardest. Ohio State's 7th hardest. Oregons 7th hardest.


If anyone needs a real explanation of FEI in general

FEI Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), Defense Ratings (DFEI), and Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS). Strength of record ratings (EWD, GWD, AWD) are the difference between a team's schedule strength ratings and its actual losses.

The model does a really good job of ranking teams in terms of quality as a whole as well as breaking that down into the quality of offense and defense.

Their idea of SOS is basically how many losses would an elite team, good, team, and average team be expected to have against your schedule.

Their idea of strength of record is just the difference in your record, and those expectations for elite, good, and average teams.

FEI

You can look at the overall data there.

As far as offensive and defensive efficiency ratings I prefer using F+ because its a combination of SP+ and FEI but for a really good simplified picture of SOS and SOR FEI is fantastic
Because they are embarrassed by the shite show they witnessed last night
quote:

A pre-emptive strike by a Bama fan who will be pissed when Bama is left out of the playoff,


Alabama shite the bed. I'm pissed they shite the bed. The should rightfully be left out of the playoff. All they had to do was be relatively competitive in the biggest game of the year against a team they had already beaten and they couldn't manage that.

That doesn't change the fact that we currently have a system in place where a team could go undefeated in conference play and not have any chance to win their conference.

Think about the stupidity of that. Conferences are so insanely bloated that conference championships have become what the BCS once was.

It's perfectly realistic that you could have the 3 best teams in a massive conference all avoid each other, go undefeated, and someone isn't even in their conference championship game.

But yeah keep telling yourself this isn't a problem
quote:

Clemson had 3 losses last year


Yeah but they won the ACC. It's totally awesome when 3 loss ACC teams pull a conference championship upset to keep a 3 loss Alabama from an at large bid because they automatically qualify.

But we have to draw the line at letting 5 loss ACC champions in the playoffs. That's when we have to start letting the 25th ranked Sun Belt champion in
quote:

There is nothing wrong with the playoff.


Everything is wrong with the playoff and it's not even the playoffs fault it's the conference structures fault.

We're about to have 2 G5 teams in the playoff because we just had a 7-5 team win the ACC because a 17 team conference played an 8 game conference schedule and it led to most of its best teams not playing each other and ending in an excessively convoluted tie. The team that was first place in the conference outright with a 7-1 conference record lost a non conference game to a team in their conference. None of this is reasonable.

The SEC ended in a 4 way tie because a 16 team conference played an 8 game conference schedule and 3 teams get screwed from it. Ole Miss and A&M get locked out of a chance to play their way into a first round bye while Alabama is given the opportunity to play itself out of the playoff while their two nearest bubble contenders get to sit at home, rest, eat popcorn, and laugh at the shite show Alabama put onto the field.

The Big ten has 18 teams and plays a 9 game conference schedule. It was through pure dumb luck it managed to give us a championship that consisted of their two top teams because there aren't enough matchup of top teams in the conference because you don't play half of your conference.

quote:

Return to the BCS


Use computers to pick teams again? All for it. Leave out the people voting part this time.

Doesn't address the fact that we need to reshape the structure of the season to make up for bloated conferences and disparity in schedules
Accidentally submitted this while trying to type everything out. I'll get everything posted later. Feel free to throw out ideas
quote:

G2 (American and PAC)


quote:

Relegate Mountain West, CUSA, MAC and Sunbelt to FCS


The PAC is an 8 team conference. Force it to merge with the Mountain West and then maybe we can consider it on equal footing with the American. At minimum UNLV has to move over.

Realignment, transfers, etc have also significantly shifted the power dynamics in G5 in general.

The American isn't nearly as deep as it was a few years back. The Sunbelt has actually become a much stronger conference. It used to be the literal bottom of the barrel. Now it's light years ahead of conference usa and the MAC.

Conference USA has basically become an entity propped up by raiding the FCS anyway.

Moving the Mac to FCS is a problem because of how FCS structure works.

Conference champions get auto bids. The MAC is too large to determine a conference champion without a championship game. The only FCS conferences that have championship games are the two HBCU conferences that don't participate in the playoff and instead play each other in the Celebration Bowl (effectively the HBCU Championship)

re: Does Duke make it in?

Posted by rolltide32 on 12/7/25 at 1:00 am to
quote:

Our path is infinitely better this year.



quote:

Texas Tech and Indiana


You traded a bye for a game against a sun belt team. Pretty much a wash.

Is Texas Tech and improvement over a QF against 24 Ohio State? Sure. Is it the cake walk you're currently making it out to be?

I went and looked at points per drive stats today going back to 2007. Texas Tech entered the day allowing 0.78 points per drive. They allowed 0.53 points per drive today.

The only 2 defenses that had a season long total better than where they are through 13 games was 2021 Georgia (0.69) and 2011 Alabama (0.49)

That defense is an absolute nightmare.

You're expected reward should you survive it is to play a team that punked you in Autzen and just beat Ohio State.

Not ideal

re: Interesting talent gap

Posted by rolltide32 on 12/6/25 at 11:06 pm to
quote:

Indiana ranks last in Big 10 talent 18th.(72nd)


Incredibly misleading

247 uses high school grades to compute talent composite.

Their averaged combined recruiting ranking counting transfers is in the 40s over the last 4 years.

They have a bunch of 3-4 star transfer grades counting as 0-2 star guys toward talent composite
quote:

You're actually proving the OPs point..


Saban only went undefeated at Alabama twice. I highly doubt he'd do it at Indiana

I also doubt Cignetti manages to finish the year undefeated
quote:

have heard from many Gumps on this site that Bama has no interest in Kiffin.


I mean I would have thought that was obvious given a majority of the fan base wanted him and the administration gave 0 consideration when Saban retired

I'm back to my #2 choice from that go around for next time: Glenn Schumann
quote:

Saban was at Michigan state for 3-4 years and was perennially 7-5


Saban lost 3 or more games 4 out of 5 seasons at LSU
Unless they have some complete 5-7 meltdown he's going to be here 4 years.

If he manages 4 years with 0 playoff spots he's toast.

Unless he someone manages to be the first team out all 4 years then maybe he sees a 5th.

So far he seems to be 2/2 on managing to be the first team out
quote:

teams ranked 19 or higher now or when they played


7-5 Illinois by 4 TDs
2 G5 teams
9-3 GT by 9
10-3 Virginia by 17

Vs JMUs 1 loss to 8-4 Louisville by 14


Clearly wins don't matter as much as losses given the rest of the playoff narratives at play so lol no Duke
G5 conferences have the 1 seed host so I'm sure it's happened