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re: Unofficial NHL Season-Long Thread: Puckheads Unite!
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:32 am to Baloo
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:32 am to Baloo
Well-reasoned post per usual, Baloo. I generally agree. One thing you said is what's kind of having me unsure:
The key there is "at this point". Last night, we were missing Dubinsky, Anisimov, Letestu, Calvert, Bobrovsky, Murray and Jack Johnson (also Horton, but it looks like his career might be over, so I'm not really including him as part of this team on-ice). That's generally been par for the course for the past three weeks or so. There was a stretch one-two weeks ago when we were missing $32 mill of a $59 mill roster.
You mention we'll need a 100-point pace the rest of the way to get to 93. I did the math and it's even worse: we'd need a 103-point pace the rest of the way. Starting now. And Dubinsky's not coming back until at earliest after two more games. Bob's questionable for the two games this weekend, but not a sure thing. If we drop both of those games, we'd need a 106-point pace over the final 65 games of the season.
This is a good team when healthy. But I still don't think it's a great team. Can a good team average a 106-point pace for that long? It's difficult for a great team to do so. LA finished with 100 points last year. Chicago finished with 107. No teams in the east besides Boston and Pittsburgh finished with more than 101. I don't know if we have the horses to get there. At the same time, it's frustrating, because we honestly might. This team when healthy might be able to do it. But I just don't know.
I have a sick feeling we'll finish the year strong when healthy, but the start was too little, too late, and we'll end up somewhere in the 85-90-point range and the No. 10 overall pick or something.
quote:
You are what you are at this point.
The key there is "at this point". Last night, we were missing Dubinsky, Anisimov, Letestu, Calvert, Bobrovsky, Murray and Jack Johnson (also Horton, but it looks like his career might be over, so I'm not really including him as part of this team on-ice). That's generally been par for the course for the past three weeks or so. There was a stretch one-two weeks ago when we were missing $32 mill of a $59 mill roster.
You mention we'll need a 100-point pace the rest of the way to get to 93. I did the math and it's even worse: we'd need a 103-point pace the rest of the way. Starting now. And Dubinsky's not coming back until at earliest after two more games. Bob's questionable for the two games this weekend, but not a sure thing. If we drop both of those games, we'd need a 106-point pace over the final 65 games of the season.
This is a good team when healthy. But I still don't think it's a great team. Can a good team average a 106-point pace for that long? It's difficult for a great team to do so. LA finished with 100 points last year. Chicago finished with 107. No teams in the east besides Boston and Pittsburgh finished with more than 101. I don't know if we have the horses to get there. At the same time, it's frustrating, because we honestly might. This team when healthy might be able to do it. But I just don't know.
I have a sick feeling we'll finish the year strong when healthy, but the start was too little, too late, and we'll end up somewhere in the 85-90-point range and the No. 10 overall pick or something.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:49 am to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
You mention we'll need a 100-point pace the rest of the way to get to 93. I did the math and it's even worse: we'd need a 103-point pace the rest of the way.
Hey! I showed my work... I was rounding! It's easier to work on needing to be 90 points in 80 games than 92 in 81 just for marking the pace (80 is far more easily divisible).
But I agree it's a good team when healthy. That's a big caveat, cuz y'all ain't healthy now, and you need to be a GREAT team when you do get healed up (if you ever do). I think you're right that it's possible for the Jackets to get healed up and go on a monster run. The team has horses. It's just unlikely and come on, it's a young team. No need to panic about the future. It might be better longterm to fiddle with the roster now and decide what the team i going to look like. You probably won't end up in the McDavid lottery, and I think that sort of losing would wear on the team. You need play competitive hockey just to keep a winning culture.
I think your pick is right on the money. I agree. I think your biggest issue on top of the slow start is the glut of good not great teams in the division. The Isles, Caps, Flyers, and Rags are all about of equal quality and are fighting for two spots, three of they're lucky (all are on that 90 in 80 pace, roughly). Then there is the Devils wild card. The Jackets need the Devils to stay just out of contention and two of those four teams to miss the playoffs. That's a lot of good fortune to need.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:52 am to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
I have a sick feeling we'll finish the year strong when healthy, but the start was too little, too late, and we'll end up somewhere in the 85-90-point range and the No. 10 overall pick or something.
Just like Nashville last year
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:54 am to TXGunslinger10
You know I don't want Tokarski gone or dumped, but that is what people will want in a trade.
Again my bias toward CP31 withstanding, they can reasonably make a trade involving Tok, but do they want to mortgage the future? I hope not.
Also they trade to get Tokarski IIRC.
Again my bias toward CP31 withstanding, they can reasonably make a trade involving Tok, but do they want to mortgage the future? I hope not.
Also they trade to get Tokarski IIRC.
This post was edited on 11/12/14 at 11:00 am
Posted on 11/12/14 at 11:06 am to ironsides
Speaking of Nashville... what a weird year for them right now. Their Former Stars & Caps line is kicking serious arse right now and the rest of the team... not so much. Their top line has scored 19 goals. Every other forward combined has 12. That's incredibly top heavy. How are they doing it?
By sheltering the living hell of them. They are starting in the offensive zone 64% of the time, which is a huge number, but even bigger when you see their Nystrom-Gaustad-Borque line only has off zone starts of FIVE percent. I didn't even know that was possible. That line, understandably, is getting killed. But even though that line is getting massively outchanced and outscored, the top line makes up for it with even more chances and more goals. As long as that lasts, they can win, but that is playing with fire. I mean, Neal and Ribs are not exactly renowned for their defensive responsibility, but right now they aren't giving their goals back.
By sheltering the living hell of them. They are starting in the offensive zone 64% of the time, which is a huge number, but even bigger when you see their Nystrom-Gaustad-Borque line only has off zone starts of FIVE percent. I didn't even know that was possible. That line, understandably, is getting killed. But even though that line is getting massively outchanced and outscored, the top line makes up for it with even more chances and more goals. As long as that lasts, they can win, but that is playing with fire. I mean, Neal and Ribs are not exactly renowned for their defensive responsibility, but right now they aren't giving their goals back.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 8:23 pm to Baloo
the STL Line is on fire, and carrying the Blues
Schwartz
Tarasenko
Lehtera
Schwartz
Tarasenko
Lehtera
Posted on 11/12/14 at 8:31 pm to stlslick
what are the odds that the kings get this virus tonight?
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:53 pm to Baloo
Yeah - I mean Forsberg was a gamble that paid off....but look @ all the value y'all got out of Erat!!
Posted on 11/12/14 at 11:49 pm to sms151t
quote:
You know I don't want Tokarski gone or dumped, but that is what people will want in a trade.
Again my bias toward CP31 withstanding, they can reasonably make a trade involving Tok, but do they want to mortgage the future? I hope not.
LOL I know man. I really think our trade hopes this year lie with maybe Prust and/or Bourque.
Problem is neither carries much value at the moment and Bourque is in Hamilton right now so that's not good. Hopefully he can get his game back before the trade deadline. That's one salary that we cannot afford next season
Posted on 11/13/14 at 12:31 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
Lolducks
Too soon eh?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 1:49 am to UltimateHog
that was more a comment on trevor lewis' goal 
Posted on 11/13/14 at 6:10 am to WestCoastAg
Here's an article on Horton's back problems with his first comments in awhile. Poor guy sounds absolutely miserable. I doubt he ever plays again.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:32 pm to KillerNut9
Stars and Kings battle tonight. Usually not a friendly endeavor
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:04 pm to WinnPtiger
Kari Lehtonen just had one of the better saves of the year so far. Nice!
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:20 pm to TTownTiger
..... For the stars that is
Posted on 11/14/14 at 12:25 am to ironsides
quote:
..... For the stars that is
eeeehhhhh, that one is gonna be on the year end highlights. the arena started booing after it
Posted on 11/14/14 at 12:27 am to ironsides
quote:
..... For the stars that is
Da fuq? Hell no. Any team all year that save will be up there.
Posted on 11/14/14 at 12:29 am to UltimateHog
quote:
UltimateHog
thanks for that.
when Kari is on, he's kinda good at keeping the puck out of the net
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