re: Taking a QB with a Top 10 pick is dumb

I'll play.

Since 2008 (last 15 years), here's QB's taken in Top 10:

2008 Matt Ryan (3) - Hit

2009 Mark Sanchez (8) - Bust
2009 Matt Stafford (1) - Hit

2010 Sam Bradford (1) - Neutral (never was great but played for 8 years and not like his stats are awful)

2011 Cam Newton (1) - Hit
2011 Jake Locker (8) - Bust

2012 Andrew Luck (1) - Hit
2012 Robert Griffin (2) - Bust (only due to injury though; he looked like he was going to be awesome)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (8) - Hit

2014 Blake Bortles (3) - Bust

2015 Jameis Winston (1) - Bust
2015 Marcus Mariota (2) - Bust

2016 Jared Goff (1) - Hit
2016 Carson Wentz (2) - Neutral

2017 Mitchell Trubisky (2) - Bust
2017 Patrick Mahomes (10) - Hit

2018 Baker Mayfield (1) - Neutral (I almost said "hit" because he made Cleveland respectable and now look what he's doing in TB)
2018 Sam Darnold (3) - Bust
2018 Josh Allen (7) - Hit
2018 Josh Rosen (10) - Bust

2019 Kyler Murray (1) - Neutral
2019 Daniel Jones (6) - Neutral

2020 Joe Burrow (1) - Hit
2020 Tua Tagovailoa (5) - Hit
2020 Justin Herbert (6) - Hit

2021 Trevor Lawrence (1) - Hit
2021 Zach Wilson (2) - Likely bust
2021 Trey Lance (3) - Unknown

2022 Bryce Young (1), CJ Stroud (2), Anthony Richardson (4) - I'd say all look pretty dang good so far considering their respective situations.

"its simple guys, just take Tom Brady 2.0 in the 6th and profit!"

quote:

---

Taking a QB with a Top 10 pick is dumb

---

I really hope this is the dumbest thing I read today.

There are definitely misses but there have been some absolute beasts come out of the top 10.

I'm not sure why it should ever be "WE SHOULD NEVER TAKE A QB HIGH".

Seems unwise.

Ok, let’s go with the stupidest take possible.


QBs are a very boom or bust position and the best of them typically get taken high because finding one who will succeed is so hard.

HOF quality ones slipping to the 2nd or later doesn’t really happen these days outside of Brees (first of the second round), Brady (2nd day because he split time in college), and Warner (undrafted).

OTOH, QBs who succeed these days are often taken in the top 10, even if the yield rate isn’t as high as teams wish.


Mahomes is a bit of an outlier in that he really should have been taken 2nd but Chicago is run by idiots. Not that Mahomes would have become Mahomes if he played at Soldier Field anyway.

Kind of like Aaron Rodgers being taken in the late first by Green Bay. It was a coin flip between him and Alex Smith at first overall then he inexplicably kept falling until the Packers got him, and they didn’t even bother to scout him because they had no idea he would fall so far.

quote:

---

Taking a QB with a Top 10 pick is dumb

---

quote:

---

What’s the hit rate on QBs taken outside the top 10?

---

First reply ITT and it's already over.

Yeah this thread didn't go well for OP

I think you could say Winston was Neutral. I don't think he's lived up to #1 pick, but he's still in the league and started for 5+ years right? That isn't awful

NFL QBs not taken in the earlier rounds:

Russell Wilson
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Brock Purdy
Sam Howell
Joshua Dobbs (Place holder for Kyler/Caleb Williams)
Desmond Ridder (Should get benched, but for UFA Heinicke)

Everyone else was a 1st or 2nd round pick.

It's like the 5* recruit. You have busts while you also can stumble into all-American 3*. But the likelihood of success is higher with the first group. The penalty for missing in the NFL is also much more punative than missing on a highly regarded recruit in college .

If you're going to take a chance on a high pick it should be at the most important position. But its still remarkable the failure rate on 1st round picks.