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re: Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers: A chart based on scoring defense

Posted on 2/8/17 at 7:13 pm to
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 7:13 pm to
quote:

Your own charts kinda defeats your assertion

It does?
7/9 Super Bowls are won with a top 10 defense

The player with the most top 10 scoring defenses has the most Super Bowls

All you did was point out the exceptions to the rule
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 7:14 pm
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112853 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 7:14 pm to
quote:

Dude we all know what you are doing. You are actually a good poster

You thought total defense meant something it didn't

When you were proven incorrect, you are now posting nonsense to try and act like you are trolling the whole time. It's a bad look korin

Yep, then he pulls the troll thing to deflect when probably 4 or more posters, basically all posting this evening all thought he didn't know what total defense meant.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112853 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

Your own charts kinda defeats your assertion

2013 - Saints best defense ever under Brees (L in division. Also, lost 4 of last 7 games)

'05, '07, '12 - Manning had his best defenses ever (L in division x2, L wild card)

2006 - Brady had one of his best defenses ever, and lost to the Colts (L conf champ to defense ranked #23)
Well sure it does when you cherry pick a couple of individual samples, which always have more variance and ignore looking at it in total... But why would you do that?

Posted by saintsfan92612
Taiwan
Member since Oct 2008
30442 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Ok, Korin. Answer this.

Defense A:
Allows 301.5 yards per game (5.1 yards per play)
Allows 20.5 points per game
Offenses convert 38% on 3rd down
Sacked opposing QB 31 times
Forced 17 turnovers (11 INTs, 6 fumbles)

Defense B:
Allows 326.4 yards per game (5.2 yards per play)
Allows 15.6 points per game
Offenses convert 37% on 3rd down
Sacked opposing QBs 34 times
Forced 23 Turnovers (13 INTs, 10 Fumbles)

Defense C:
Allows 316.1 yards per game (4.7 yards per play)
Allows 18.6 points per game
Offenses convert 36% on 3rd down
Sacked opposing QB 42 times
Forced 27 turnovers (14 INTs, 13 Fumbles)

Which one is the best defense?


quote:

It's a combination of all of them. Saying that total defense is "useless" is just plain ignorant.


So, by total defense(aka Yards allowed). A is the best, C is second best, B is third best.

But by no other metric is A even 2nd. B clearly has the best scoring defense. C may have the best all-around defense if we were to make up some imaginary "total defense" stat.
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 7:29 pm
Posted by League Champs
Bayou Self
Member since Oct 2012
10340 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

It does?
7/9 Super Bowls are won with a top 10 defense

Youre asserting that other QBs would be as good as Brady if they had the defenses he did. Yet when they had their best defenses, most didn't even make the conf championship. And the year Brady had his best defense, Manning beat him with a very porous defense

Yet AR12 has had mostly lousy defenses, and hes made the playoffs every year. Including 1 SB, 2 conf games, and 3 divisional games.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

Youre asserting that other QBs would be as good as Brady if they had the defenses he did
Well yes I am. Are you disagreeing?

They have damn near identical scoring offensive rankings and passer rating rankings.

By disagreeing, you are saying Brady's teams win more because he has some sort of effect in the defense. Is that your argument?

This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 8:09 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216458 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:11 pm to
You guys are giving me A headache.............
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:12 pm to
It's ok peej, you can just stick to whomever has the most wins
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 8:13 pm
Posted by TT9
Seychelles
Member since Sep 2008
91793 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:25 pm to
He's a Manning fan, one of the last idiots that think Peyton is better than the GOAT.
Posted by TigerBait1127
Houston
Member since Jun 2005
47336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

Your own charts kinda defeats your assertion

2013 - Saints best defense ever under Brees (L in division. Also, lost 4 of last 7 games)

'05, '07, '12 - Manning had his best defenses ever (L in division x2, L wild card)

2006 - Brady had one of his best defenses ever, and lost to the Colts (L conf champ to defense ranked #23)


Well sure if you don't understand how statistics work and think someone is saying that every year you have a good defense you're expected to win the super bowl.

Or, gasp! Could it just mean that having consistently good defenses gives you more opportunities and a higher chance to win the super bowl.


2013 was arguably the worst offense we've had under Brees, and yet we made the divisional.....

And the 2006 colts defense was easily a top 10 defense with Bob Sanders in the playoffs. That was arguably Manning's worst playoffs with the Colts, yet they won the super bowl.

shite happens. While there is likely an incredible high correlation between defensive play in the regular season and playoffs, it isn't a rule that those defenses will have the same personnel as the previous 16 games.
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 8:50 pm
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

He's a Manning fan, one of the last idiots that think Peyton is better than the GOAT.
I presented facts and data, without once opening my mouth on who I opine is better.

I am sorry you are too juvenile to digest this information.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112853 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:18 pm to
quote:

Your own charts kinda defeats your assertion

2013 - Saints best defense ever under Brees (L in division. Also, lost 4 of last 7 games)

'05, '07, '12 - Manning had his best defenses ever (L in division x2, L wild card)

2006 - Brady had one of his best defenses ever, and lost to the Colts (L conf champ to defense ranked #23)
30 blackjack hands in which I hit on 18 all 30 times. 26 times I failed, 4 times it helped me win the hand.


What your post is doing is saying my data defeats my assertion because those 4 times I hit on 18, I won.

You realize that doesn't make sense right?

Process vs results. Just like hitting on 18 may win here and there, it's not a good idea. When you have 4 QBs who are all mostly similarly good, the charts show that the one with the better defense wins more in the long run, but of course like hitting on 18 and winning, sometimes having the great QB and great defense won't result in a title.


Hopefully that breakdown helps you understand why your post was incorrect.
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 9:19 pm
Posted by Hawgnsincebirth55
Gods country
Member since Sep 2016
18515 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:40 pm to
Jimmy graham? But the pats have gronk so that point is moot. I thought Colston was a pro bowler
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71133 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:44 pm to
I don't need to look at numbers when I have eyes that can watch these guys play. Having watched all four of them play, Tom Brady is still tGOAT.

People need to remember he's only really been a gunslinger for 10 seasons now. His first few years in the league he was a game manager, honing his skills, and developing into an elite quarterback. Then he got Randy Moss and his numbers exploded and have had very little respite ever since.

2001: 2,843 passing yards
2002: 3,764 passing yards
2003: 3,620 passing yards
2004: 3,692 passing yards
2005: 4,110 passing yards
2006: 3,529 passing yards
2007: 4,806 passing yards
2009: 4,398 passing yards
2010: 3,900 passing yards
2011: 5,235 passing yards
2012: 4,827 passing yards
2013: 4,343 passing yards
2014: 4,109 passing yards
2015: 4,770 passing yards
2016: 3,554 passing yards

(He would have gone over 4,000 yards passing again in 2016 if not for his 4-game suspension.)

There is a very clear demarkation here. The career of Tom Brady BM (Before Moss) and the career of Tom Brady AM (After Moss). Before Randy Moss his numbers were solid but not eye-popping. But in 2007, they switched from a balanced rushing attack to more of a pro style spread attack and Brady's numbers started going through the roof. And he has sustained that excellence pretty much ever since.

Bottom line, Brady blossomed late whereas Peyton Manning was given the reigns to the offense almost from day one, hence why his numbers over his career are better. And that makes sense seeing as Manning went #1 in the draft while Brady went #199. But if Brady continues to sustain he might just catch up to and surpass Manning's career totals.



This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 9:46 pm
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

I don't need to look at numbers when I have eyes that can watch these guys play. Having watched all four of them play, Tom Brady is still tGOAT.

People need to remember he's only really been a gunslinger for 10 seasons now. His first few years in the league he was a game manager, honing his skills, and developing into an elite quarterback. Then he got Randy Moss and his numbers exploded and have had very little respite ever since.

2001: 2,843 passing yards
2002: 3,764 passing yards
2003: 3,620 passing yards
2004: 3,692 passing yards
2005: 4,110 passing yards
2006: 3,529 passing yards
2007: 4,806 passing yards
2009: 4,398 passing yards
2010: 3,900 passing yards
2011: 5,235 passing yards
2012: 4,827 passing yards
2013: 4,343 passing yards
2014: 4,109 passing yards
2015: 4,770 passing yards
2016: 3,554 passing yards

(He would have gone over 4,000 yards passing again in 2016 if not for his 4-game suspension.)

There is a very clear demarkation here. The career of Tom Brady BM (Before Moss) and the career of Tom Brady AM (After Moss). Before Randy Moss his numbers were solid but not eye-popping. But in 2007, they switched from a balanced rushing attack to more of a pro style spread attack and Brady's numbers started going through the roof. And he has sustained that excellence pretty much ever since.

Bottom line, Brady blossomed late whereas Peyton Manning was given the reigns to the offense almost from day one, hence why his numbers over his career are better. And that makes sense seeing as Manning went #1 in the draft while Brady went #199. But if Brady continues to sustain he might just catch up to and surpass Manning's career totals.



You realize I never posted yards right?

I posted passer rating and offensive scoring. Which Brady is equal to or better than manning....

You and others have gotten defensive, without even reading or comprehending what I posted
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71133 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:50 pm to
I'm not being defensive. I'm simply saying that Brady is tGOAT.

Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112853 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

I don't need to look at numbers when I have eyes that can watch these guys play. Having watched all four of them play, Tom Brady is still tGOAT.

HOnest question, tell me what you see with your eyes that tells you that despite Rodgers playing the QB position clearly better than Brady in the regular season and playoffs.

Can you articulate what you're seeing that makes you know that in spite of evidence that shows Brady doesn't really play the position THAT much better than any of the others, but he has had much better defenses to work with?
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:51 pm to
quote:


I'm not being defensive. I'm simply saying that Brady is tGOAT.
Ok. What does that have to do with this thread?
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71133 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

HOnest question, tell me what you see with your eyes that tells you that despite Rodgers playing the QB position clearly better than Brady in the regular season and playoffs.



Rodgers and Brady took similar beatings against the same Falcons team. One led an improbable comeback for the ages while the other wilted like a flower in winter time. I'll let you decide which is which.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111336 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

Rodgers and Brady took similar beatings against the same Falcons team. One led an improbable comeback for the ages while the other wilted like a flower in winter time. I'll let you decide which is which.
One led their team to 21 points on the road, and his defense gave up 44

One led their team to 28 points at a neutral site, but also threw a pick 6. So a net of 21, but luckily, his defense only gave up 21

Thank you for posting what you did. It gave my entire thread the stamp of approval


ETA: both qbs had a passer rating of 92
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 9:58 pm
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