re: Major college football will leave the NCAA by 2030

quote:

---

I think that's true and something that could ultimately tank the sport after a few years. It's honestly already detached enough feeling now since the veil has been lifted on how little the major schools care about academics and how mercenary the players are about NIL.

---

And that’s 100% the fault of the fans.

1. You pay coaches eight figures (and even some assistant coaches seven figures) and expect them to give a shite if Johnny Heisman turns out to be a scholar?

2. You go across the country and pull a kid out of the ghetto of Los Angeles because he has freak physical ability and expect him to be academically motivated and put Alabama, Georgia, or whoever, ahead of his own self interests?

You could all sign good players and good students from your home states and have competitive teams. But that’s not good enough.

A mercenary is only a mercenary if someone is willing to pay them. You guys pay them and then bitch about them.

I think we'll see a major change before 2026. Here are the proposals I anticipate.

1. NCAA stays around for FCS and lower and no real changes for those schools. Some schools will elect to leave FBS and go back to FCS and we'll again see terminology like Div I-A, I-AA etc. March Madness basically becomes the NIT at this level.

2. SEC and Big10 will lead the way to leave the NCAA. Football will rule but basketball will be in the mix and a big consideration for many schools, and just for basketball, they may create a really large top division and that will be the new destination for what we think of as March Madness. The carve out will be basketball, not football, because there are so many oddball schools like Butler, that have good programs, but I can't even name where Butler is, or if they field another sport.

Centered on football though: They will try to create two divisions, each with four conferences, each conference with 8 teams, so 64 teams in total. The conferences will essentially be the old Pac, B10, Big8, SEC, with some minor changes. So you get SEC Upper Division and SEC Lower Division for example. I think this mega conference stuff has been bad and when we see pictures of the Oregon and Oregon St mascots together with a caption reading 'till we meet again' not knowing when they'll again be rivals, in conference...that doesn't sit well with fans. So regional conferences are coming back.

Upper division will be 'unrestricted' and centered on football, but this will create concerns on the ability to properly fund a full athletic department since schools must devote so much to football in order to be competitive.

This will lead to a lower division and this lower division will become the most popular, IMO. Here we will see full athletic departments, every athlete on a full scholarship, football will get much less money but other sports will get more, you'll see more sports, more athletes, lot more local TV coverage (if anyone remembers some of those days prior to ESPN getting huge and broadcasting so many games each Saturday, your local stations often had games with local crews etc but we may see conference networks and this could be a major threat to ESPN), and there will be restrictions such as no NIL collectives, athletes can make money but they have to go out on their own and make money - old school booster restrictions put in place but no prohibition on getting a job, monetizing youtube etc. The portal will be limited, coaching salaries and buyouts will be severely limited. This lower division is where fan connection to the school will remain, rivalries will be supported etc. Member schools will pool faculty members and others with specialized skills to serve as a collective Inspector General function for oversight, rules enforcement etc.

Lower division will still swim in money like old school days, but the upper division will rake it in primarily in the post season. They probably go to an 8 team playoff, first round hosting, and concentrating the best talent into those schools due to money will probably lead to high TV revenue. But the lower division will be excellent football and rake in plenty in the regular season, lot of TV money, then probably have a bowl system and a 4 team playoff. Lower division may get so popular that it swells to 10 teams in each conference, or more. I think that division is 'football as we remember it' waiting to happen. I also think this lower division will be the premier destination for many women's sports, so there will be massive fan support and TV coverage on that side.

I think schools like Bama try to go upper division and we see their athletic department fall apart as a result with many sports going away. They'll keep some, but the number will trickle down quite a bit. Schools like UF go to the lower division, same for Miami and others.

New proposals for paying players are just too much for schools to handle and still fund a full athletic department so I see these changes coming very soon.

quote:

---

Who do you think runs the NCAA?

---

Idiots

I would prefer LSU to drop these sports if they are going to just be a minor league.

If it isn’t going to be about school then it seems these players should be able to play forever for these minor league teams.

It is going to be before 2030

There is a way around this, State Universities are going to have to enforce the rules through state legislatures. Nothing would stop the states from saying that if you are not enrolled and in good standing with the university you cannot play for said universities. Furthermore, athletic departments which have been " privatized" will either become a full part of the school or they will not be able to lease the stadiums on university property. If you want to represent the University and use it's facilities you will be a student. If you are a student you will be subject to the same academic requirements as any other non athlete student. You must be full time and you must make a minimum threshold grade point wise.

If the athletes want the money, the coaches want to coach and they want all that juicy TV and apparel money, then they get at least some semblance of an education. If they don't like it, they are welcome to set up their own organization but they cannot use the university name.....if they want it they can pay the University a hefty fee....and they cannot use the stadiums period

quote:

---

Get the state legislatures involved.

---

I've wondered about this and how it will affect private schools.

Let the private universities knock their fukkin lights out.

So far the only ones that has a real national brand is USC and maybe Miami

Maybe to a lesser extent The Baylors, TCUs, Dukes and Northwesterns