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re: GM Jocketty to overrule Baker: Aroldis Chapman to be in the rotation (Reds)
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:31 pm to Baloo
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:31 pm to Baloo
quote:
And, for the record, I didn't suggest hitting Votto 1st, Bho did. I just said it wouldn't be THAT bad of an idea
In the NL I think it would be a bad idea. Would you still bat the pitcher 9th in that scenario?
1
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:37 pm to Baloo
It would make perfect sense if they needed starting pitching. They don't.
More bad than good can come from this. At best they come into a 3rd "ace". Kinda silly when you know what you have as a closer.
More bad than good can come from this. At best they come into a 3rd "ace". Kinda silly when you know what you have as a closer.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:40 pm to Lester Earl
It even makes less sense for the playoffs. Then what? You only roll out a 3 or at most 4 man rotation. So Latos and Cueto are locks. Then choose one between Arroyo, Chapman and Bailey? Then you are wasting two valuable arms at the most important time of the year.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:41 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Bat you're best run producer 1st so every time he comes up
The point is you want people on base more often. Until you start getting large gaps in power it would make sense to bat him first. He's not there to drive in the runs he's their to get on base. If he's on base guys will hit him in, its not the point for him to knock in the 8th and 9th hitters.
frick a bubble. That has nothing to do with it. The reason you bat guys later is there power.
This is all moot because the differences are pretty minuscule. The point is that they need to see if champan can start, he has the chance to be special. If anyone doesn't get that I don't know what to tell you.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:41 pm to Bho
quote:
Then choose one between Arroyo, Chapman and Bailey? Then you are wasting two valuable arms at the most important time of the year.
Bullpen
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:44 pm to barry
quote:
Bullpen
But they won't do that. Never have. Maybe one, but not both.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:47 pm to Bho
quote:
But they won't do that. Never have
We have been to the playoffs twice. Easy with the never have.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 2:57 pm to Bho
Sure. Here is a Win Expectancy table, based on game data (assuming home team):
LINK
Go to the part of the table that says top 9th inning, Score "1" (to mean up by 1 run), and 0 on and 0 out. The WE is .841, meaning a team has an 84.1% chance of winning that game in the usual toughest save situation.
So a league average pitcher should win the game 80% of the time, and that's not even getting into situations up by 2 or 3, also save situations which have a much higher chance of success for the closer.
LINK
Go to the part of the table that says top 9th inning, Score "1" (to mean up by 1 run), and 0 on and 0 out. The WE is .841, meaning a team has an 84.1% chance of winning that game in the usual toughest save situation.
So a league average pitcher should win the game 80% of the time, and that's not even getting into situations up by 2 or 3, also save situations which have a much higher chance of success for the closer.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:05 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Would you still bat the pitcher 9th in that scenario?
In home games, I'd bat the pitcher 3rd, and start the game with a position player in the pitcher slot. (Can I do that in the NL? Is that against the rules? Does your nominal starting pitcher have to throw a pitch?). On the road, I'd either hit the pitch 8th or I'd go nuts and keep the hit him third strategy and start a one-inning reliever). i mean, while we're going with crazy strategies. Earl Weaver used to start John Lowenstein at shortstop and hit him 2nd, and then replace him with Belanger in the bottom of the inning.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:11 pm to Baloo
I hope one day to see managers actually use their best relievers in situations that have the most effect on a game. Like bringing in your "closer" in the bot of the 6th with the bases loaded and 1 out in a tie game.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:16 pm to barry
quote:
The point is you want people on base more often. Until you start getting large gaps in power it would make sense to bat him first. He's not there to drive in the runs he's their to get on base. If he's on base guys will hit him in, its not the point for him to knock in the 8th and 9th hitters.
frick a bubble. That has nothing to do with it. The reason you bat guys later is there power.
You're better than this Barry.
Batting votto lead off would be ridiculous. Get off of bill James' dick & think for yourself
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:26 pm to Lester Earl
Barry you say the bubble argument is BS... Yea, if every player were the same, & had the same strengths & weaknesses....then you'd have a point.
You bat Votto 3rd because he gets a ton of XBH, & is the toughest out in the lineup. That's the main reason. Should he walk, great. The caliber of player hitting behind him 4-5-6 is not much different than the ones that would hit 2-3-4 if he were to bat 1st.
His specific talents best suit him hitting in the middle of the order.,his OBP% is great and if you just look at that alone, you'd think he would be a great lead off hitter. The problem comes in, is that is all a by product of his hitting greatness.
You bat Votto 3rd because he gets a ton of XBH, & is the toughest out in the lineup. That's the main reason. Should he walk, great. The caliber of player hitting behind him 4-5-6 is not much different than the ones that would hit 2-3-4 if he were to bat 1st.
His specific talents best suit him hitting in the middle of the order.,his OBP% is great and if you just look at that alone, you'd think he would be a great lead off hitter. The problem comes in, is that is all a by product of his hitting greatness.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:29 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Batting votto lead off would be ridiculous.
Yes because he has significant power.
If he didn't have his high slugging then it would make perfect sense.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:31 pm to Baloo
quote:
In home games, I'd bat the pitcher 3rd, and start the game with a position player in the pitcher slot. (Can I do that in the NL? Is that against the rules? Does your nominal starting pitcher have to throw a pitch?).
I think you mean in road games, because if not you have a position player pitching the top of the first.
Whoever is listed as the starting pitcher must face one batter.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:32 pm to barry
I don't know if you're mocking me but that is literally just what I said
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:45 pm to TigerintheNO
Yeah, sorry. Flipped what I meant. And that rule is the bullsheet. I bet it exists cuz of Earl Weaver doing stuff like this.
What's wrong with fun substitution patterns? Let managers be creative.
What's wrong with fun substitution patterns? Let managers be creative.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 3:55 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Whoever is listed as the starting pitcher must face one batter.
Throw one ball and bring in the real starter. Don't make it hittable.
ETA: Is that worth it though? Is there really much of a benefit for that single at bat?
This post was edited on 3/14/13 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 3/14/13 at 4:05 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Is that worth it though? Is there really much of a benefit for that single at bat?
Well, if that stupid substitution rule didn't exist, then almost certainly. Over the course of the year, it would mean 81 at bats that would've gone to the pitcher (a near automatic out) would have instead gone to a competent hitter. That's a lot of at bats. Also, you could use it as a way to rest your regulars. Put Votto in the starting lineup when you intend to give him the night off, let him hit once, and then he goes to the buffet table in the clubhouse for the rest of the night.
But if they had to pitch to a batter, it completely negates the advantage. Bummer.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 4:37 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Who cares about the "value" you get out of him? just fricking win. Who cares if he is a "role" player? He's great at it, and it helps the team win, which is the bottom line
Because value = higher likelihood of winning. And he gives you a higher likelihood of winning if he can convert to a starter. And are any Reds fans really bent out of shape if developing a third ace means we don't get to see Bronson Arroyo start a playoff game?
Again, closer is the most overrated position in baseball. Closers are put into low pressure situations more frequently than other bullpen guys (7th and 8th inning guys who come in mid-inning) and save percentages for even the best closers really aren't that much better than average closers. Case in point: Chapman converted a lower percentage of saves last year than Francisco Cordero did as a Red.
Posted on 3/14/13 at 4:42 pm to emmanuellewis
Closing is overrated until you don't have one.
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