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Message
re: DAT: 2014-2015 Offseason Thread
Posted on 1/31/15 at 1:31 pm to Tiger Ryno
Posted on 1/31/15 at 1:31 pm to Tiger Ryno
Well, I finally figured it out.
Jeff Luhnow gets his talent strategy from Trace Adkins.
Swing Batta Batta
Definitely should be played during opening ceremonies for every Astros home game.
Jeff Luhnow gets his talent strategy from Trace Adkins.
Swing Batta Batta
Definitely should be played during opening ceremonies for every Astros home game.
This post was edited on 1/31/15 at 2:39 pm
1
Posted on 1/31/15 at 1:34 pm to Floating Change Up
Happy Birthday to the Ryan Express!!!!
Posted on 1/31/15 at 2:39 pm to BamaHater
Posted on 2/3/15 at 5:59 am to BamaHater
17 days until pitchers and catchers report 
22 days until first full team workout
Less than a month
22 days until first full team workout
Less than a month
Posted on 2/3/15 at 9:53 am to Prominentwon
quote:
22 days until first full team workout
My second favorite day of the year... first being Opening Day for the Season.
It's almost time...
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:17 pm to Prominentwon
We are officially 2 weeks away from Pitchers/Catchers reporting for Spring Training.
Here's a long pick-and-choose-stats-that-I-like-to-justify-my-prediction post.
Stats from 2014:
Astros were 9-19 in April. During that time, the SP was just awful, of the 19 losses, only 2 were blown saves and 3 were Walk-off wins by the opposition. So, of the remaining 13 losses, if the SP does it job, I see them picking up 5 games over their 2014 April (3 losses by Harrell and 2 each by Peacock and Cosart, I'm splitting the losses for Peacock and Cosart. Harrell was garbage and I'm choosing to believe we would've won every one of his shitty losses. This is my made up analysis so there.) Notice, fewer games this April so the numbers don't exactly add up from last season to my predictions.
FCU prediction for April record 2015: 11 - 11.
Astros were 15-14 in May. They get 4 more L's by the Peacock/Cosart duo, so added a +2 for those games. They went 4-6 in 1 run games during the month. I'll even that out and take a +1 (due to better BP to start this season). Finally, they ended the month with a season high 7 game win streak... not sure I like that anomolly, so I'll take a -4 on that.
Prediction for May 2015 record will be 14-15.
Astros were 12-15 in June 2014. The Astros were shut out 5 times in June. I don't like that anomolly (whatever, it's my BS analysis) so I say we get a +2 there. Nothing else sticks out that I can cherry-pick here so I will point out that Jerome Williams had two BS during the month. He's gone, we get an extra win.
Prediction for June, 2015 record will be 15-14.
Astros were a terrible 8-17 in July. They opened the month with a 7 game losing streak. Not sure I like that anomolly (ha!) so I'm taking 2 of those losses, +2. They lost Springer from the lineup. Five more losses by Peacock/Cosart. +2 games there. The pitching is terrible during the month, of the 17 losses, the opposition scored more than 5 runs 11 times. Coincidentally, during those 11 games, The power quartet of Springer, Carter, Singleton and Santana go for a whopping .139 average (13-93). So, I'm choosing to take 1 of those losses for wins this year.
Prediction for July, 2015 record will be 13-11.
Astros were 15-14 in August. Without Springer. +1 game for having him back. -1 for the loss of Feldman getting traded to the Marlins. +2 for calling up Appel.
Prediction for August, 2015 record will be 16-13.
Astros were 11-13 in September. +3 for Calling up Correa (Yeah, I said it). +1 for calling up Moran.
Prediction for September, 2015 record will be 15-12.
Prediction for October, 2015 record will be 2-1. They take the series against the D-backs.
********************************************
Season record: 86-76.
TL;DR. Yes, I'm bored. No, I can't wait for Spring Training. Cubs fans in the DAT thread can suck it. Rangers fans can just suck wherever they are.
Yes, most of this post is with a lot of hope and humor.
Here's a long pick-and-choose-stats-that-I-like-to-justify-my-prediction post.
Stats from 2014:
Astros were 9-19 in April. During that time, the SP was just awful, of the 19 losses, only 2 were blown saves and 3 were Walk-off wins by the opposition. So, of the remaining 13 losses, if the SP does it job, I see them picking up 5 games over their 2014 April (3 losses by Harrell and 2 each by Peacock and Cosart, I'm splitting the losses for Peacock and Cosart. Harrell was garbage and I'm choosing to believe we would've won every one of his shitty losses. This is my made up analysis so there.) Notice, fewer games this April so the numbers don't exactly add up from last season to my predictions.
FCU prediction for April record 2015: 11 - 11.
Astros were 15-14 in May. They get 4 more L's by the Peacock/Cosart duo, so added a +2 for those games. They went 4-6 in 1 run games during the month. I'll even that out and take a +1 (due to better BP to start this season). Finally, they ended the month with a season high 7 game win streak... not sure I like that anomolly, so I'll take a -4 on that.
Prediction for May 2015 record will be 14-15.
Astros were 12-15 in June 2014. The Astros were shut out 5 times in June. I don't like that anomolly (whatever, it's my BS analysis) so I say we get a +2 there. Nothing else sticks out that I can cherry-pick here so I will point out that Jerome Williams had two BS during the month. He's gone, we get an extra win.
Prediction for June, 2015 record will be 15-14.
Astros were a terrible 8-17 in July. They opened the month with a 7 game losing streak. Not sure I like that anomolly (ha!) so I'm taking 2 of those losses, +2. They lost Springer from the lineup. Five more losses by Peacock/Cosart. +2 games there. The pitching is terrible during the month, of the 17 losses, the opposition scored more than 5 runs 11 times. Coincidentally, during those 11 games, The power quartet of Springer, Carter, Singleton and Santana go for a whopping .139 average (13-93). So, I'm choosing to take 1 of those losses for wins this year.
Prediction for July, 2015 record will be 13-11.
Astros were 15-14 in August. Without Springer. +1 game for having him back. -1 for the loss of Feldman getting traded to the Marlins. +2 for calling up Appel.
Prediction for August, 2015 record will be 16-13.
Astros were 11-13 in September. +3 for Calling up Correa (Yeah, I said it). +1 for calling up Moran.
Prediction for September, 2015 record will be 15-12.
Prediction for October, 2015 record will be 2-1. They take the series against the D-backs.
********************************************
Season record: 86-76.
TL;DR. Yes, I'm bored. No, I can't wait for Spring Training. Cubs fans in the DAT thread can suck it. Rangers fans can just suck wherever they are.
Yes, most of this post is with a lot of hope and humor.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 2:49 pm to Floating Change Up
quote:
Astros owner Jim Crane told Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle that he doesn’t envision his team signing Shields. Some have speculated that Houston could be a sleeper for Shields, with the fruits of their rebuilding efforts on the brink of Major League contribution. However, Crane cited the lack of TV revenue from 2014 and Shields’ age as factors. “With the (local) TV money not coming in last year, that really hurt. That was over $50 million that we did not receive,” said Crane, who also added that he’s not sure the team is quite ready to begin making four-year investments. He did note that the Astros would have to consider the move “if we got a good deal.”
3 years, $16mil/year... with an Option year with $750K buyout?
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:58 pm to Floating Change Up
86 wins? I love your optimism.
and good post
and good post
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:05 pm to Floating Change Up
That's handsomely optimistic. 
I think this is an improved team from last year but I don't see our worst month as being 1 game below .500. Given the boom or bust nature of our offense, I'm guessing this will be a streaky team and we'll have an ugly month.
I think this is an improved team from last year but I don't see our worst month as being 1 game below .500. Given the boom or bust nature of our offense, I'm guessing this will be a streaky team and we'll have an ugly month. Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:09 pm to ehidal1
quote:
86 wins? I love your optimism.
The key is to cherry pick just the right stats to make the prediction logical to the uninformed. (I have learned that from tRant and SECRant.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 7:25 pm to Floating Change Up
I think Crane was sort of saying that he can't envision signing a pitcher of Shields age to 4 years.
I agree.
I agree.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 7:56 pm to Prominentwon
Exactly Prom.
This entire regime's motto should be "No Bad Contracts"
This entire regime's motto should be "No Bad Contracts"
Posted on 2/6/15 at 8:01 pm to TXGunslinger10
JL said in an interview recently that he knows the Astros have to sign a front of the rotation guy soon, but he doesn't think that time is right now.
I'm perfectly fine with waiting a season and going hard after Zimmerman next year.
I'm perfectly fine with waiting a season and going hard after Zimmerman next year.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 8:14 pm to TTownTiger
See and I disagree with that.
Our payroll is at an all time low as it relates to competitive baseball pretty much.
Get a 5 year deal on the books with a top of the rotation guy now before your up and coming guys earn their big paydays.
IMO it should be a combination of BIGTIME free agents and young studs under club control
Our payroll is at an all time low as it relates to competitive baseball pretty much.
Get a 5 year deal on the books with a top of the rotation guy now before your up and coming guys earn their big paydays.
IMO it should be a combination of BIGTIME free agents and young studs under club control
Posted on 2/10/15 at 1:22 pm to TXGunslinger10
I was just on Astros.com to buy tickets for games #2 and #3 VS. the Indians. How is it every other team in the division is selling home tickets except the Astros?
WTH? Ryno, did you get your opening day tickets yet?
Crane and Reid Ryan can't figure out how much he wants to raise prices, or what?
WTH? Ryno, did you get your opening day tickets yet?
Crane and Reid Ryan can't figure out how much he wants to raise prices, or what?
Posted on 2/11/15 at 4:05 pm to Floating Change Up
Astros ranked #15 in ESPN Blog MLB Preseason Rankings
LINK
That puts them in 3rd in the AL West.
I agree with the final prediction, fwiw
LINK
quote:
Big offseason moves: Hired A.J. Hinch as manager; signed SS Jed Lowrie and RHPs Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek; acquired 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily from the Cubs for CF Dexter Fowler; acquired C Evan Gattis and RHP James Hoyt from the Braves for RHP Michael Foltynewicz, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Andrew Thurman; signed OF Colby Rasmus.
Most intriguing player: George Springer. I had him in this spot last year and put him here again. Breakout potential remains large. Note: Most fun player remains Jose Altuve.
Due for a better year: The bullpen. Gregerson and Neshek should help a pen that had the worst ERA in the majors and the second-most blown saves.
Due for a worse year: Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are the logical candidates, although I like both pitchers to come close to their 2014 results.
I'm just the messenger: There's an obvious concern here: It's Altuve and a Costco warehouse of strikeouts. Springer, Chris Carter and Gattis may combine for 90 home runs and nearly 600 strikeouts, which could push the lineup into prolonged slumps of whiffs and scoreless innings.
The final word: I like the Astros more than most -- calling them the surprise team of 2015 -- and pointed out that they had the worst production in the majors last year at first base, third base and left field. So improvement at those positions will be vital. Yes, a lot is riding on Keuchel and McHugh to be very good again but I believe they will be. The Astros' plan is coming together, augmented with some free-agent signings, and they're going to be competitive for the first time in years.
Prediction: 83-79
That puts them in 3rd in the AL West.
I agree with the final prediction, fwiw
This post was edited on 2/11/15 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 2/11/15 at 4:14 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are the logical candidates, although I like both pitchers to come close to their 2014 results.
That would be f'ing fantastic if they can come close to last year.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 4:24 pm to Prominentwon
Look about right. I haven't been this excited for the season in years.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 4:26 pm to CQQ
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/12/23 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 2/11/15 at 4:32 pm to Prominentwon
I would ecstatic with over 500. They would be primed for a huge year next year if it happened. If they can get to 75 wins this year I would be pleased
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