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Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:46 pm to boogiewoogie1978
the chaos is hurting mine, just trying to hang on
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
This can't possibly be true. Just because there's been a slight downtrend does not mean it is at "historic lows".
You aren’t alone in feeling this way. I think most Americans believe alcohol is a bustling and growing industry based on the explosion of craft beer a decade or more ago. To be sure; some of the industry’s woes are self-inflicted. A major craft beer bubble definitely happened. More recently; the bourbon/spirits industry has shown serious troubles.
A couple of examples. While we were sleeping Stoli USA filed for bankruptcy last year. At one time the largest vodka brand in the US. Ballast Point who sold for $1Billion (with a B) was liquidated for pennies on the dollar. MGP who produces a huge amount of spirits cut its production back 50% last year. Old Forrester who owns Woodford and others announced a mass layoff and closed its cooperage operations. Meaning they are no longer making barrels to fill. Which suggests they have a glut of inventory already in their rickhouses. Just this week another distillery less than two years old filed for bankruptcy. Estimated to have been funded with nearly $100M in VC money. Kentucky Owl filed for bankruptcy a few months ago. Svedka was sold. The list goes on and on. In 2024 for the first time ever the number of breweries closing eclipsed the number of breweries opening.
So the decline isn’t slight. It’s pretty profound.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:58 pm to TxTiger82
quote:sure, but I believe long term we will all be better...
Would that affect you, Chicken?
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:59 pm to TxTiger82
quote:chips and queso...
Ok now do a product you like.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:20 pm to wiltznucs
quote:I have significant direct touch with the industry.
You aren’t alone in feeling this way. I think most Americans believe alcohol is a bustling and growing industry based on the explosion of craft beer a decade or more ago. To be sure; some of the industry’s woes are self-inflicted. A major craft beer bubble definitely happened. More recently; the bourbon/spirits industry has shown serious troubles.
Yes, beer and wine demand has ticked lower for the past 5-7 years (like a -1% rate). Spirits were picking up all the slack until very recently - probably highly related to what you mentioned about cannabis. e.g. look at the beverage trends in Minnesota since they've so liberally allowed the cannabis drinks. Also, Ozempic.)
But none of that changes the fact that absolute gallons produced and consumed are much higher than in the 60s and 70s (with the possible exception of whiskey, which is sort of back to where it was back then).
quote:I'm aware of all of this. A lot of it is just excesses from the recent boom being flushed out.
A couple of examples. While we were sleeping Stoli USA filed for bankruptcy last year. At one time the largest vodka brand in the US. Ballast Point who sold for $1Billion (with a B) was liquidated for pennies on the dollar. MGP who produces a huge amount of spirits cut its production back 50% last year. Old Forrester who owns Woodford and others announced a mass layoff and closed its cooperage operations. Meaning they are no longer making barrels to fill. Which suggests they have a glut of inventory already in their rickhouses. Just this week another distillery less than two years old filed for bankruptcy. Estimated to have been funded with nearly $100M in VC money. Kentucky Owl filed for bankruptcy a few months ago. Svedka was sold. The list goes on and on. In 2024 for the first time ever the number of breweries closing eclipsed the number of breweries opening.
Your original claim of us being back to 60s levels simply is false.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:21 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Obviously, they could increase prices, but if they are in an industry with already small margins, all it takes is for some of their competitors to slow their increases or hold tight in hopes of gaining market share at the expense of gross profit margins, and now those small businesses are gasping for air.
You understand it. I'm a $12mm business. My two main competitors are $500mm-$1b. You are absolutely right about them being able to slow their increases compared to me. They can buy from overseas on credit, where as I have to pay upfront.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:24 pm to Chicken
Do you purchase enough TD gear before tariffs
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:27 pm to fareplay
No, the new koozie and tshirt designs are on hold.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:28 pm to Chicken
Don’t have to give exact numbers but what % inc are you seeing from wholesalers now?
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:29 pm to boogiewoogie1978
100%, I've got customers all across the board. 10 import containers a year. 1000 containers a year.
Enterprise accounts. Mom and pops.
The carnage in the middle market for those importing from China specifically is unavoidable.
Enterprise accounts. Mom and pops.
The carnage in the middle market for those importing from China specifically is unavoidable.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:31 pm to notsince98
quote:
I dont know of many small businesses that focus on importing goods/services. Most small businesses I can think of are almost completely local with regards to goods and services.
There are FAR more than you realize in every community in this country. Everyone who makes any physical product is importing or dependent on importing in some capacity, even if it says Made in America on the box.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:38 pm to LSUShock
Most small businesses aren’t unique. Most just sell goods they bought from wholesale which in turn bought from China. My parents old store did this.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:44 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
but a lot of people prefer old world wines.
brunello di montalcino
Posted on 4/8/25 at 1:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
If you want to believe that Constellation brands sold their entire wine portfolio over annualized 1% sales declines that fine. If you want to believe companies like Caymus, Stags Leap Wine Cellars, Penfolds and even Chateau Mouton Rothschild are inking cut-rate deals with Costco to counter 1% annual sales declines too that’s cool too. If you want to believe BrewHub who is the largest contract brewer in the country isn’t under a foreclosure bankruptcy due to its inability to pay its debts right now that’s peachy. You can overlook the fact that WhistlePig listed half its campus for sale last month and that Old Elk laid off half its sales team last Friday. I’m not one to let facts get in the way of a good argument.
The fact is; wine consumption in terms of gallons per person is way, way down and has been reported by numerous outlets. Is it due to a number of factors? Absolutely. There’s a lot more choices than there were 40 years ago.
Companies don’t go under over a few 1% sales declines. Companies go under when there’s wholesale changes in consumer demand which is what’s happening.
The fact is; wine consumption in terms of gallons per person is way, way down and has been reported by numerous outlets. Is it due to a number of factors? Absolutely. There’s a lot more choices than there were 40 years ago.
Companies don’t go under over a few 1% sales declines. Companies go under when there’s wholesale changes in consumer demand which is what’s happening.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 2:39 pm to wiltznucs
quote:OK, now you're talking per capita. That makes way more sense. Your original claim said "in gallons".
The fact is; wine consumption in terms of gallons per person is way, way down
quote:I certainly agree the industry is changing. But a lot of the companies you listed are having problems because they leaned too hard into the boom. e.g. A brand new bourbon distillery was delivered early in 2024 in Kentucky for $250M...and sits dormant now. That doesn't mean bourbon is in freefall. But it does mean you can't just project demand up and to the right in perpetuity.
Companies don’t go under over a few 1% sales declines. Companies go under when there’s wholesale changes in consumer demand which is what’s happening.
LINK
Kentucky bourbon in aging right now (ricked or otherwise) is at an alltime high inventory.
ETA: I still say your "per capita wine consumption is historically low" claim is nonsense.
This is what AI came back to me with quickly. I'm certainly open to seeing any evidence you have to the contrary:
quote:
1960: Approximately 0.26 gallons per person. ?
1970: Approximately 0.36 gallons per person. ?
1980: Approximately 0.49 gallons per person. ?
1990: Approximately 0.53 gallons per person. ?
2000: Approximately 0.59 gallons per person. ?
2010: Approximately 0.66 gallons per person. ?
2020: Approximately 0.78 gallons per person. ?
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 4/8/25 at 2:41 pm to fareplay
I think that's a very naive POV. I'm close to the sun as this is what I do for a living, but importing is everywhere around you, whether you realize it or not.
Here's the import data report for Houma.
Every half decent sized city in the country has data like this or more. Half the people that work at importers don't even know they do it.
Here's the import data report for Houma.
Every half decent sized city in the country has data like this or more. Half the people that work at importers don't even know they do it.
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 4/8/25 at 4:09 pm to SuperSaint
quote:
no reason to not be toasting from CA American Viticultural Areas Paso Robles, Napa, Santa Barbara, etc. are pumping out top quality varieties
No reason not to drink California, Washington, and Oregon sometimes. But all the time? There are tons of varietals that don’t grow well, or aren’t produced well, in the US. The red portfolio is better, but unless you like your Chardonnay ruined with new oak and heavy malolactic fermentation, the US portfolio of white wine is a disaster.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 6:22 pm to Chicken
quote:
yeah, California wine industry finna eat
Pride is a good wine from California. Total Wine on Seigan carries it.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 7:45 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
Will these tariffs be a death blow for some small businesses?
you asked a question
the answer is yes
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