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Started By
Message
re: Will the housing market "crash"?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 8:02 pm to themasterpater
Posted on 5/20/22 at 8:02 pm to themasterpater
Maybe
2
Posted on 5/24/22 at 6:27 pm to notiger1997
Notiger with the least helpful response
Posted on 5/24/22 at 6:31 pm to themasterpater
I think we need to rethink the term crash and it’s true implications
But that won’t stop it from being in every real estate related headline for months
But that won’t stop it from being in every real estate related headline for months
Posted on 5/24/22 at 6:38 pm to themasterpater
I think we’re going to see a correction but not a crash. A crash was 08.
This will be an adjustment where parts of the country will feel it and others really won’t.
This will be an adjustment where parts of the country will feel it and others really won’t.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 8:35 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
This chart really summarizes why it is unlikely:
That is surprising to me given rates were so low that entire time.
It must vary by region, I feel there is a new subdivision every time I venture out from my typical work to home route (Acadiana area).
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:08 pm to themasterpater
There wont be 30-40% gains. More like 10-15%
No crash in sight
No crash in sight
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:25 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Maybe
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:27 pm to buckeye_vol
Is this because apartments and townhomes are being built instead?
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:43 pm to lynxcat
We’re still several years away from adequate inventory. Prices will continue to rise albeit at a lower annual percentage than we’ve seen the past couple of years.
Posted on 6/2/22 at 10:46 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Just my thoughts and I may be way off. In fact, I hope I am off for the NW FL condo market. I think supply is going to keep that market hot.
I am probably not the first to admit I am wrong, but I am at least willing to admit I am wrong. I am starting to see chinks in the armor in the NW FL condo/beach market for the first time in years. The fairly priced ones are still moving remarkably fast, but several are dropping prices 30-60k after being on the market less than 60 days. This is very surprising to me. I am personally glad to see it, but it is likely going to hurt some people.
This post was edited on 6/2/22 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 6/2/22 at 11:02 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
I am probably not the first to admit I am wrong, but I am at least willing to admit I am wrong. I am starting to see chunks in the NW FL condo/beach market for the first time in years. The fairly priced ones are still moving remarkably fast, but several are dropping prices 30-60k after being on the market less than 60 days. This is very surprising to me. I am personally glad to see it, but it is likely going to hurt some people.
My wife and I have been kicking tires for awhile and are seeing the same thing. There is still very little beach front inventory along 30A, BUT I am actually seeing price reductions which I haven't seen in the area for like 2 years.
Posted on 6/2/22 at 1:09 pm to Paul Allen
All due respect....but this whole lacking inventory argument lacks nuance...
The skyrocketing costs of materials and labor have obviously dramatically driven up home construction costs. Skyrocketing interest rates have driven down the price people can afford to pay for those houses.
Builders are going to be left holding the bag on a lot of these specs.
Sellers are going to be left holding the bag on some of these houses they paid 450k for that are only worth 400k in 12 months.
It will certainly not be for the same reasons as 2008, but folks prognosticating that it won't be as bad need to maybe hold off because I don't think anyone has the ability to accurately forecast the ripple effects.
The skyrocketing costs of materials and labor have obviously dramatically driven up home construction costs. Skyrocketing interest rates have driven down the price people can afford to pay for those houses.
Builders are going to be left holding the bag on a lot of these specs.
Sellers are going to be left holding the bag on some of these houses they paid 450k for that are only worth 400k in 12 months.
It will certainly not be for the same reasons as 2008, but folks prognosticating that it won't be as bad need to maybe hold off because I don't think anyone has the ability to accurately forecast the ripple effects.
Posted on 6/2/22 at 2:19 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
We’re still several years away from adequate inventory. Prices will continue to rise albeit at a lower annual percentage than we’ve seen the past couple of years.
Inventory is only one side on the coin here. There has to be demand and won't be with higher rates. Simple really.
Posted on 6/2/22 at 2:38 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
am starting to see chunks in the NW FL condo/beach market for the first time in years.
Have you seen the number of insurance companies leaving Florida or jacking up premiums massively?
That's a big emerging issue because of insurance fraud- which is a cost being returned to the general homeowner. Most middle class people notice a lot when their beachfront property premiums go from $6K to $15K annually.
Posted on 6/2/22 at 6:14 pm to themasterpater
I participated in the '07 one...who knows..
Posted on 6/2/22 at 8:44 pm to themasterpater
Posted on 6/3/22 at 6:13 am to greygoose
quote:
House prices will be forced down.
I guess the big question is forced down comparable to what prior time. If we see a correction of 20% based on today prices then we are still 20-30% higher that what we were in 2020. At least in my area.
We bought in October 2020 and our realtor feels confident that we could get 30-40% more than what we bought for if the house was in the same condition. We put some work into it and can probably get closer to 50-60% over what we paid. All of this is insane to me as I have always viewed my primary residence as a sunk cost without much appreciation.
Posted on 6/3/22 at 8:37 pm to AUjim
quote:
I don't think anyone has the ability to accurately forecast the ripple effects
Too many people don't understand this. Much like the economy in general, we are in unprecedented times. There's no historical period to compare what is going on now to.
Posted on 6/4/22 at 10:43 pm to themasterpater
No way these prices will last longer term.. i dont know if i see a "crash" but prices will come back down to "normal" if not below.
Posted on 6/5/22 at 6:41 am to 21savage
Nah there’s a new normal now and you’ll never see the levels you are referring to again
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