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Posted on 9/16/25 at 8:02 pm to BCreed1
I don’t think they will cut either and not doing so will cause a bit of a shakeup to bring September back into line as a generally rough month for a market bull.
But even if they cut 25 bps, does that do anything for the market or will we still see a substantial sell off through the end of the week/month? I get that the comments will round out the picture over the next couple of days, but I’m not optimistic in more than one this year if we get a cut tomorrow.
But even if they cut 25 bps, does that do anything for the market or will we still see a substantial sell off through the end of the week/month? I get that the comments will round out the picture over the next couple of days, but I’m not optimistic in more than one this year if we get a cut tomorrow.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 8:36 pm to LP2OP
I think the magnitude of the market reaction will depend on Powell's comments at the press conference.
Could well be a case of buy the rumor sell the fact.
Could well be a case of buy the rumor sell the fact.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 8:39 am to LP2OP
The 25 cut is almost entirely baked into the market at this point it is so expected. Market will move on whether or not comments indicate the likelihood of further cuts this year, or if the Fed does another 50 September cut.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:28 am to BCreed1
Any knowledge on when annoncment will be made? Today? Tomorrow?
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:32 am to AUin02
I think markets drop on the news of the cut actually announced if i had a gun to my head. If they do a .5 cut, I think it'll be significant and you'll see steepening at long end of the curve. (10yr plus would go UP imo)
Basically, stagflation becomes real and not an opinion once the fed resumes cutting. Also cant pass up a good opportunity to leave some bags with retarded retail investors buying for a rate cut bump.
Basically, stagflation becomes real and not an opinion once the fed resumes cutting. Also cant pass up a good opportunity to leave some bags with retarded retail investors buying for a rate cut bump.
This post was edited on 9/17/25 at 9:35 am
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:59 am to Victor R Franko
quote:2:00 PM Eastern today.
Any knowledge on when annoncment will be made? Today? Tomorrow?
Picked up two SPY puts for just a bit of protection.
10/17 $640s
This post was edited on 9/17/25 at 10:08 am
Posted on 9/17/25 at 10:17 am to bayoubengals88
Right. I bought 5 $652 9/19 Puts a couple of days ago. We’ll see.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:01 am to LP2OP
Yes.
I predict.25 %.
Possibly.50%.
I predict.25 %.
Possibly.50%.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:04 am to geauxpurple
Things would have to be bad for 50 I think. That would be Powell admitting he had screwed up bigly. 25 keeps the narrative in tact and doesn’t freak anyone out either way.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:37 am to beaverfever
quote:
Things would have to be bad for 50 I think.
So the other side of this coin is, Why did Powell lower 50 a month before the election when things were definitely NOT bad in October 2024, no market sell offs, no alarming job numbers, no concrete data pointing to the need for a full 50 etc? Why 50 then but not 50 now with 10 months of no cuts?
A normal and reasonable person can easily conclude that this dog does not hunt especially if the new argument supporting Powell not lowering to 50 is, "but things would need to be bad." Zero consistency in side by side application by Powell.
This post was edited on 9/17/25 at 11:41 am
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:53 am to Tomatocantender
quote:
Why did Powell lower 50 a month before the election when things were definitely NOT bad in October 2024, no market sell offs, no alarming job numbers, no concrete data pointing to the need for a full 50 etc?
-There was a lot of debt coming up for refinancing.
-Politics
-Doesn't understand inflation (remember, it was only supposed to be "transitory")
-More worried about job numbers than inflation
Take your pic of any/all of the above.
Posted on 9/17/25 at 12:54 pm to slackster
quote:
While I’m sure that was cheap
It was. 3 cents per contract
Posted on 9/17/25 at 1:01 pm to BCreed1
.25 cut
Posted on 9/17/25 at 1:03 pm to BCreed1
,25 just like i predicted
Posted on 9/17/25 at 1:05 pm to BCreed1
Posted on 9/17/25 at 1:09 pm to DarthRebel
Posted on 9/17/25 at 1:39 pm to DarthRebel
Why such an emphasis on reducing the fed balance sheet? Seems counterintuitive. Maybe they’re doing it while they think there is liquidity in the market to support it. Idk
Posted on 9/17/25 at 3:03 pm to BCreed1
There certainly isn’t any need to lower to pump air into inflationary or deflationary pressures
If cutting, it’s largely due to pressure to get a lower borrowing rate for government bonds
If cutting, it’s largely due to pressure to get a lower borrowing rate for government bonds
Posted on 9/17/25 at 4:12 pm to Bard
quote:
Doesn't understand inflation (remember, it was only supposed to be "transitory")
Or there are using different datasets to achieve goals not stated publically.
Could be currency related or...like you said....political.
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