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Uranium investing... anyone?
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:38 pm
Anyone else here into the uranium market?
I will say that I am a firm believer in nuclear power, and especially these new small modular reactors. I got in on SMR at $10.20 within a couple days of it going public. But I believe this is somewhat of a gamble. There are many companies developing these new reactors. But SMR is the only one yet approved by the NRC. I believe several designs will "catch on" based on the application they are used in. And it seems govt keeps doubling down on "going green". I firmly believe that this cannot happen without new nuclear.
That said, I think betting on uranium is a safer move over the next 5-7 years. Japan is restarting reactors that were shut down after Fukushima. Germany has had a change of heart on shutting down their nuclear plants (who'd have thunk it?). China has dozens of new reactors coming online over the next decade. Even though I doubt that we will, it's possible that we will sanction Russian uranium. None of these increases in demand even consider the new small modular reactors.
I see demand continuing to increase and the ability to supply the enriched product not being able to keep up. It's a long process to build that capability. Not to mention that utilities buy their fuel years in advance.
I am not one who follows the market daily, nor am I well versed in what to look for in certain stocks. So that's what I am asking. What "numbers" or factors does one look at when evaluating or comparing different stocks? While certainly possible, I do not believe I will lose anything in this market over the next several years. My biggest fear is not beating the market. And yes, I do realize that not beating the market can be considered a loss. And it should be considered that way. But I believe it will beat the market. I am looking for advice or education on evaluating stocks.
I am looking really hard at LEU, CCJ, UEC, DNN, UUUU and a couple of etf...URNM, URA, and SRUUF.
I will say that I am a firm believer in nuclear power, and especially these new small modular reactors. I got in on SMR at $10.20 within a couple days of it going public. But I believe this is somewhat of a gamble. There are many companies developing these new reactors. But SMR is the only one yet approved by the NRC. I believe several designs will "catch on" based on the application they are used in. And it seems govt keeps doubling down on "going green". I firmly believe that this cannot happen without new nuclear.
That said, I think betting on uranium is a safer move over the next 5-7 years. Japan is restarting reactors that were shut down after Fukushima. Germany has had a change of heart on shutting down their nuclear plants (who'd have thunk it?). China has dozens of new reactors coming online over the next decade. Even though I doubt that we will, it's possible that we will sanction Russian uranium. None of these increases in demand even consider the new small modular reactors.
I see demand continuing to increase and the ability to supply the enriched product not being able to keep up. It's a long process to build that capability. Not to mention that utilities buy their fuel years in advance.
I am not one who follows the market daily, nor am I well versed in what to look for in certain stocks. So that's what I am asking. What "numbers" or factors does one look at when evaluating or comparing different stocks? While certainly possible, I do not believe I will lose anything in this market over the next several years. My biggest fear is not beating the market. And yes, I do realize that not beating the market can be considered a loss. And it should be considered that way. But I believe it will beat the market. I am looking for advice or education on evaluating stocks.
I am looking really hard at LEU, CCJ, UEC, DNN, UUUU and a couple of etf...URNM, URA, and SRUUF.
8
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:47 pm to deuceiswild
There are only a few "real", quality publicly traded uranium producers. Everything else comes with a really strong dose of speculation and maybe a side of occasional fraud.
KAP - Kazak producer, the best resource, the most "real" uranium producer. Geopolitical and jurisdictional issues of course.
I would also put CCJ and NXE in that bucket.
ETFs probably the best way to get exposure.
KAP - Kazak producer, the best resource, the most "real" uranium producer. Geopolitical and jurisdictional issues of course.
I would also put CCJ and NXE in that bucket.
ETFs probably the best way to get exposure.
This post was edited on 8/2/22 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:50 pm to deuceiswild
I recently purchased 10 shares of LEU- Centrus Energy Corp. Earnings in another day. We shall see if i did good 
This post was edited on 8/2/22 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:57 pm to deuceiswild
Uranium Thread
We've had a decent amount of activity in this thread if you want to check it out. I've been consuming as much content related to uranium as I can and only get more bullish as things progress. There are quite a few resources in that thread plus a good amount of informative follows on twitter if you have an account.
We've had a decent amount of activity in this thread if you want to check it out. I've been consuming as much content related to uranium as I can and only get more bullish as things progress. There are quite a few resources in that thread plus a good amount of informative follows on twitter if you have an account.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 3:59 pm to deuceiswild
DNN has been decent, but I buy only when it dips below $1.05 or so. It got up to just over $2 before the market took a dump, I'm sticking with it in the hopes that the eventual fallout from this "green energy" push fiasco causes more nuclear power activity.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 4:18 pm to Texas Tea 123
What do you mean by the "most real" producer?
Posted on 8/2/22 at 4:20 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
Anyone else here into the uranium market?
I invested a modest amount in the space as a long term play. I’m not going with any single players, so I went with URA and I sell OTM calls against the position to generate income from it. It also occasionally pays a small special dividend.
In the thread that was linked above, there is some very good information and more knowledgeable investors than myself.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 6:05 pm to itsbigmikey
Just read the entire thread. Thanks! Definitely a lot of good information in there, but it also looks like you guys are day trading. I don't have the time to do that lol.
I am getting in on uranium and holding for a few years. Most likely URNM, CCJ, and UEC. I will consider a gamble of $1K or so on YellowCake though. Sounds appetizing! I don't consider the others to be much of a gamble... I just hope they beat the market as a whole.
I am getting in on uranium and holding for a few years. Most likely URNM, CCJ, and UEC. I will consider a gamble of $1K or so on YellowCake though. Sounds appetizing! I don't consider the others to be much of a gamble... I just hope they beat the market as a whole.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 6:11 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
but it also looks like you guys are day trading
There is some of that but I think most of us there are holding.
I have am holding long with a material amount invested. The thesis is incredibly strong in terms of structural supply constraints and booming demand. Never mind geopolitical tailwinds, national security considerations and the Sput there to soak up the gravy.
ETFs are great ideas... I am heavy in Sput, then the two ETFs (URA and URNM), then CCJ/UUU/DNN and a bunch of others.
The risk of a black swan nuclear event is always a risk, but the thesis is about as strong as I have seen in a long time for an investment. Just be patient, uranium is only a $40 billion industry (market cap of all companies - amazing how small it is) and accordingly is crazy arse volatile for no reason sometimes.
I have been burned trying to short term time it with options... now just focus long term on what seems like the inevitable.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 6:18 pm to igoringa
I follow politics pretty closely and feel informed as to how the political winds are blowing.
I am also in the nuclear industry, but with limited knowledge outside of anything that doesn't involve actually operating a reactor. That's what I do. So I am well aware of how an accident of any sort can bring all of this down.
I believe in the technology, and I believe it is impossible to achieve "going green" without new nuclear. Specifically the new small modular reactors. Building more large reactors similar to those in operation today is not an option imo.
Either way, all of that requires fuel. In this case, uranium.
I am also in the nuclear industry, but with limited knowledge outside of anything that doesn't involve actually operating a reactor. That's what I do. So I am well aware of how an accident of any sort can bring all of this down.
I believe in the technology, and I believe it is impossible to achieve "going green" without new nuclear. Specifically the new small modular reactors. Building more large reactors similar to those in operation today is not an option imo.
Either way, all of that requires fuel. In this case, uranium.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 6:31 pm to deuceiswild
You are dead on point.
Green requires nuclear, period. No realistic plan otherwise.
Further, putting our eskimo neighbors to the North aside, the US reactors use about 55 million pounds of uranium a year... and that is before the coming SMR boom. We produced 21,000 pounds this year. Not a typo - 21,000. National security will push the mines back open. Yes we will source heavily from Saskatchewan but we need a domestic supply.
For that to happen it has to be economical. Like Cameco hinted at, that may require upwards of $90 a pound. That would be a double from here.
Green requires nuclear, period. No realistic plan otherwise.
Further, putting our eskimo neighbors to the North aside, the US reactors use about 55 million pounds of uranium a year... and that is before the coming SMR boom. We produced 21,000 pounds this year. Not a typo - 21,000. National security will push the mines back open. Yes we will source heavily from Saskatchewan but we need a domestic supply.
For that to happen it has to be economical. Like Cameco hinted at, that may require upwards of $90 a pound. That would be a double from here.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 7:36 pm to deuceiswild
I’ve been in on UUUU with several purchases on dips for about a year now. Originally got interested when I stumbled across the Canadian firm buying up billions in spot uranium. The research and investment case are all there from a supply and demand perspective even at current nuclear energy needs. Now add in all the current geopolitical events moving developed nations away from O&G and it makes even more sense we’re still at significant low point in uranium stocks for the future.
Just my investment theory.
Just my investment theory.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 8:00 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
Most likely URNM, CCJ, and UEC.
Be careful on UEC. That Cash flow sheet and Balance sheet look really weak. Add in the short interest is at 18% compared to better balance sheets on LEU and CCJ and a lot lower short interest. I would go with either LEU or CCJ if i were you.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 8:00 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
Building more large reactors similar to those in operation today is not an option imo.
Southern Company stockholders agree with you.
Posted on 8/2/22 at 9:07 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
also looks like you guys are day trading
I hope that's a misconception.
Long term I think the best approach is buy and hold the better Uranium developers and producers for the next few years.
There might be another paladin to progress from explorer to producer this cycle but most of the explorers won't pan out.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:27 am to molsusports
quote:
What do you mean by the "most real" producer?
Just mean that they have a real resource to exploit, actually make a significant amount of money, generate material cash flow, etc. A lot of these have almost no production (i.e. are speculative on developing some future resource + high uranium prices).
If you look at the financials of many of the tickers listed in this thread, they generated de minimis revenue, or none at all, last year/quarter, and negative cash flow.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 9:29 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:34 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
Anyone else here into the uranium market?
nope. not any more.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 5:19 pm to deuceiswild
LEU just had a really nice quarter and i plan on picking up more shares tommorrow. Should be up a few bucks tommorrow after great earnings.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 9:48 am to FLObserver
quote:
LEU just had a really nice quarter and i plan on picking up more shares tommorrow. Should be up a few bucks tommorrow after great earnings.
Looks like they did and would fall into the "real company" bucket, albeit a small one. Nice to see them actually generating positive net income, cash flow, etc
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:11 pm to Texas Tea 123
quote:
LEU
Yeah when this thread started i pulled up most of the financials on some of the companies that were mentioned and only a few companies stood out with actual profits. This was one of them thus the buy. I added a few more shares from my original buy this morning on the brief dip. Done buying for now. Can see big things in the future with the push for greener energy.
This post was edited on 8/5/22 at 1:14 pm
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