Texas Tea 123

Cheniere is a cleaner play in every single way possible.

Execution, management integrity, business model, balance sheet, etc.

VG is trash. Their fees on contracted volumes are lower than anyone. They rely on trading basically. And they are incredibly over levered. And there is still a big unknown with pending lawsuits and such. And they claim that they can get volumes to above like 40% of nameplate capacity on their trains... ok buddy sure, would that even be economically accretive at today's spreads? Eh

This is what happens when a banker and a lawyer from NYC get together and want to make a boat load of money for themselves.

Domestic gas prices vs. international gas prices

I sound like a broken record

Domestic gas went from <$3 to >$4
International gas went from >$15 to <$10

Right now, the spread is about $5. That is kind of where the fulcrum begins where you make or don't make money on marketing volumes and also brings into the conversation questions around recontracting (e.g. original contracts were struck when the spread was $8-10, now it's far lower, etc). Also, there are a million new export facilities being built.

So, fundamentals breaking down, more capacity coming online, no bueno.

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Aren’t these LNG plants signing 20 year contracts on set prices before the facility is ever built?

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They do sign up capacity at fixed tolling rates, but not for 100% of nameplate capacity. They all have merchant arms that market around their open capacity. Example — VG contracts 75% of their capacity and uses the remaining 25% to essentially work the domestic / international spread, which is compressing.

Cheniere has been a huge winner. They had a gigantic first mover advantage and did a wonderful job contracting, constructing, operating, just generally executing.

Most of those gains happened early or post COVID sell off. That was the easy stuff.

I mean the stock is down y/y

AVGO is a tremendous company

Crazy what a bunch of really good DBs will do for ya

It's extremely frustrating as a Texan and LSU alum that there are at least six colleges in Texas I would push my kid to go to over LSU, and many more across the region. LSU is like my 25th choice for them, sadly.

Quick PSA - majority of small cap / micro cap "mining stocks" that don't trade on the NYSE are pump and dumps

If it's on the TSX Venture exchange, 90% chance it's a pump

Just looking for a short list to narrow down the housing search (for a family not for a young single guy or gal)

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The people who write these articles live in New York or LA.

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Bingo -- this might sound crazy, but in NYC (Manhattan / nice parts of Brooklyn), you need to be making over $400k or you are struggling / sacrificing. Equivalent of $150-200k in Baton Rouge.

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I bet you’re overweight, have a shitty diet, and have terrible sleep hygiene…. But sure

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I wish that was true because it would be really easy to fix.

Instead, I am healthy with a wonderful family and career. Everything is ideal from that perspective. Mental health is a thing, though, and you sound like someone that lacks compassion. Likely do to insecurities and unhappiness.