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Twitter apparently worth only $8B now after Elon paid $44B for it a couple of weeks ago
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:13 pm
quote:
@BamaBonds
Just to be clear, Twitter senior secured bank loans- the top of the capital stack- at $0.60 implies that Twitter- for which @elonmusk paid $44 billion- is now worth less than $8 billion..
OMG, the preceding tweet has brought out the corporate finance nerds!
OK fine (aside from looking at recovery values), let’s do the contingent claims analysis. Senior creditors are short an EV put struck at $13B (the face value of their loan) /1
The market values this put at $5B right now (actually more including the spread premium). Let’s assume Elon has got 2 years to turn this around, and throw on a 50% annual asset value volatility. Plug it all in to Black Scholes and you get an implied spot price (EV) of ~$8B.
LINK
Can someone explain this to me in terms of Cap Table 101 math? Where did the original $0.60 in the first tweet come from? Are the banks already trying to offload the loans?
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:21 pm to saintforlife1
The CIA quit the black money infusions, it was a globalist deep state psyop, it was probably laundered 3 layers deep through corporate advertising
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:47 pm to saintforlife1
Let’s see..
$44B-$8B = $36B
$36B / $8 = 4,500,000,000 blue check marks
$44B-$8B = $36B
$36B / $8 = 4,500,000,000 blue check marks
Posted on 11/10/22 at 7:29 pm to whiskey over ice
quote:
$36B / $8 = 4,500,000,000 blue check marks
It's 8 per month and 2 years, so he really needs just 187,500,000 bluechecks.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 9:08 am to Bestbank Tiger
LINK
By Kate Conger, Ryan Mac and Mike Isaac
SAN FRANCISCO — Two weeks after buying Twitter, Elon Musk painted an increasingly bleak financial picture for the company and outlined changes in a meeting with staff on Thursday and in his first companywide emails, amid an exodus of executives including the officials who oversaw content moderation and security.
At the meeting on Thursday, Mr. Musk warned employees that Twitter did not have the necessary cash to survive, said seven people familiar with the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The social media company was running a negative cash flow of several billion dollars, Mr. Musk added, without specifying if that was an annual figure. He mentioned bankruptcy.
SNIP
Mr. Musk has also raced to find new subscription revenue. One of his first projects was to revamp a subscription service, Twitter Blue. He raised the price to $8 a month and said subscribers would receive a verification check mark, which Twitter has typically given to prominent users like celebrities and politicians.
In one of his emails to staff on Wednesday, Mr. Musk said subscriptions should eventually account for about half the company’s revenue. “Without significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will not survive the upcoming economic downturn,” he wrote.
Mr. Musk also told employees that they must return to the office on Thursday and work from there for a minimum of 40 hours a week. Twitter’s work force had been remote since early in the pandemic, and in recent years, its employees have been allowed to choose where they want to live rather than remaining in cities where the company has offices.
At some of Mr. Musk’s other companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, he has also said employees must go into the office to work 40 hours a week.
On Twitter’s Slack during Mr. Musk’s meeting with employees on Thursday, people discussed the merits of resigning or being laid off. “Don’t resign, be fired,” one worker wrote in a companywide channel, in a message viewed by The Times.
“Resignation is cheap and easy for the employer,” the employee wrote. “If you have a better plan lined up, go for it. If you are intimidated into considering resignation, don’t.”
By Kate Conger, Ryan Mac and Mike Isaac
SAN FRANCISCO — Two weeks after buying Twitter, Elon Musk painted an increasingly bleak financial picture for the company and outlined changes in a meeting with staff on Thursday and in his first companywide emails, amid an exodus of executives including the officials who oversaw content moderation and security.
At the meeting on Thursday, Mr. Musk warned employees that Twitter did not have the necessary cash to survive, said seven people familiar with the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The social media company was running a negative cash flow of several billion dollars, Mr. Musk added, without specifying if that was an annual figure. He mentioned bankruptcy.
SNIP
Mr. Musk has also raced to find new subscription revenue. One of his first projects was to revamp a subscription service, Twitter Blue. He raised the price to $8 a month and said subscribers would receive a verification check mark, which Twitter has typically given to prominent users like celebrities and politicians.
In one of his emails to staff on Wednesday, Mr. Musk said subscriptions should eventually account for about half the company’s revenue. “Without significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will not survive the upcoming economic downturn,” he wrote.
Mr. Musk also told employees that they must return to the office on Thursday and work from there for a minimum of 40 hours a week. Twitter’s work force had been remote since early in the pandemic, and in recent years, its employees have been allowed to choose where they want to live rather than remaining in cities where the company has offices.
At some of Mr. Musk’s other companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, he has also said employees must go into the office to work 40 hours a week.
On Twitter’s Slack during Mr. Musk’s meeting with employees on Thursday, people discussed the merits of resigning or being laid off. “Don’t resign, be fired,” one worker wrote in a companywide channel, in a message viewed by The Times.
“Resignation is cheap and easy for the employer,” the employee wrote. “If you have a better plan lined up, go for it. If you are intimidated into considering resignation, don’t.”
Posted on 11/11/22 at 9:40 am to Eurocat
Obviously this wasn't the most well-thought out plan but will be interesting to see what if Elon can figure out a way to get blood from the stone. Maybe more porn is the answer.
If I had to bet, I'd probably go with Twitter having new owners within the next couple of years.
If I had to bet, I'd probably go with Twitter having new owners within the next couple of years.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 9:42 am to saintforlife1
quote:
Where did the original $0.60 in the first tweet come from?
I saw that number a few days ago… before Musk made mention of potential bankruptcy. I wonder what the markdown is now that he’s mentioned the “B” word?
quote:
Are the banks already trying to offload the loans?
That was their plan, at least some of it. They didn’t want to hold it all on their books. But Musk’s comments aren’t exactly making that an easy play. I’m just happy to have my money out of TWTR and to have come out with a decent profit. This is an outright dumpster fire.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 10:24 am to saintforlife1
That's OK. He paid for Twitter by selling a bunch of overpriced Tesla stock
Posted on 11/11/22 at 10:45 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
It's 8 per month and 2 years, so he really needs just 187,500,000 bluechecks.
And that calculation assumes $0 in advertising revenue.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 10:46 am to Strannix
quote:
The CIA quit the black money infusions, it was a globalist deep state psyop, it was probably laundered 3 layers deep through corporate advertising
This. Operation Mockingbird cut their Twitter Budget.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 11:30 am to saintforlife1
you gotta crack a bunch of eggs to make an omelet.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 12:40 pm to saintforlife1
quote:
Just to be clear, Twitter senior secured bank loans- the top of the capital stack- at $0.60 implies that Twitter- for which @elonmusk paid $44 billion- is now worth less than $8 billion..
This is pointless.
You take a company private so you can do all the dirty work outside of the public markets because they don't have the appetite for the short-term pain needed for a serious re-org.
It's like remodeling your house and taking the value of the house after you gutting the old shite.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 3:28 pm to Strannix
quote:
The CIA quit the black money infusions, it was a globalist deep state psyop, it was probably laundered 3 layers deep through corporate advertising
Strannix knows this but not Musk. Checks out.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 3:29 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
And that calculation assumes $0 in advertising revenue.
I guess he can pull in mypillow and commemorative coins.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 2:56 pm to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
Obviously this wasn't the most well-thought out plan but will be interesting to see what if Elon can figure out a way to get blood from the stone. Maybe more porn is the answer.
If I had to bet, I'd probably go with Twitter having new owners within the next couple of years.
He’s going to make it an everything app. Pay for stuff (remember he founded PayPal), hail drivers and deliveries, online shopping, etc.
He has a really solid user base to work with.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 7:49 pm to SaintsTiger
quote:
He’s going to make it an everything app
I wouldnt mind this as Facebook marketplace is a tossup now with scammers.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:37 am to Strannix
quote:
The CIA quit the black money infusions, it was a globalist deep state psyop, it was probably laundered 3 layers deep through corporate advertising
Not that long ago (maybe 6 or 7 years), I would have said you were wearing a tinfoil hat for spewing such nonsense.
Today? I'm putting my own fashionable tin chapeau on and saying, "Amen, Brother Strannix. Preach!"
(Full disclosure: Off the record, a lifetime ago, and at a very low level, the CIA complimented some of my team's work.)
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