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Tips for betting on the weather on Kalshi

Posted on 5/9/26 at 12:29 pm
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
9377 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 12:29 pm
All of my past easy money-making plans have failed, which just means that I'm due. Currently have a scraper bot (saswave on Apify) and then I'll copy/paste screenshots into Gemini and then Gemin will explain the scarper bot to me like I'm in kindergarten. Also have a prompt for Gemini that shows me the daytime high for Atlanta or 11 difrerent forecasts. Working on a spreadsheet with all 11 forecasts and planning on eventually giving that to Gemini to look or trends compared to the actual high for that particular day.

How long should it take me to make my first million?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102634 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

All of my past easy money-making plans have failed, which just means that I'm due.


Says every broke gambler
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
44884 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 1:13 pm to
Bet the under on the temperature and crank your A/C up and leave a window open.
Posted by kaaj24
Dallas
Member since Jan 2010
931 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 2:25 pm to
Good luck.

Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41034 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 3:33 pm to
Hopefully the aliens wipe us out soon
This post was edited on 5/9/26 at 3:34 pm
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32875 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

All of my past easy money-making plans have failed, which just means that I'm due.

Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87468 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 4:01 pm to
Posted by BabyTac
Austin, TX
Member since Jun 2008
16636 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 4:22 pm to
I’m not sure how Kalshi works, but I’d think it’d be easy money to consistently bet against whatever way the general population is leaning.
Posted by Decisions
Member since Mar 2015
1639 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

How long should it take me to make my first million?


Depends. How much do you make at your day job? Because I have doubts about this venture.
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
9377 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

I’m not sure how Kalshi works, but I’d think it’d be easy money to consistently bet against whatever way the general population is leaning.



There are a lot of highly-trained bots.

I was wrong as shite today and lost. Today would've been the day to rely on the European model and Weather Bug. Those two have the best spatial resolution and Advanced Cloud Parameterization and accurately predicted that the cloud cover would linger.

Lesson learned, though. Me and Gemini are clear now that it will remind me in my morning preview when it might be a day for the European Model and Weather Bug.
This post was edited on 5/9/26 at 5:12 pm
Posted by LemmyLives
Texas
Member since Mar 2019
16043 posts
Posted on 5/9/26 at 5:46 pm to
Years ago, IBM bought The Weather Company, partially in an effort to train Watson (early AI) so it could anticipate shipping delays at all levels, increased demand for water, types of fertilizer, etc.

In typical IBM fashion, they did shite with it, and sold most of it. And nobody remembers Watson.
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
9377 posts
Posted on 5/10/26 at 7:54 am to
quote:

Years ago, IBM bought The Weather Company, partially in an effort to train Watson (early AI) so it could anticipate shipping delays at all levels, increased demand for water, types of fertilizer, etc.

In typical IBM fashion, they did shite with it, and sold most of it. And nobody remembers Watson



The European model and The Weather Channel still use IBM's old tecnhology. The European model is the gold standard. Its only downside for betting on the weather is that it only updates its forecast twice a day – once around 5 am and once at 5 p.m.
Posted by Alltheway Tigers!
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8017 posts
Posted on 5/10/26 at 9:44 am to

This should be for the “Hail Mary” board.
Posted by TDFreak
Coast to Coast - L.A. to Chicago
Member since Dec 2009
9263 posts
Posted on 5/10/26 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

Tips for betting on the weather on Kalshi
Yeah, here’s my tip:



Don’t.
Posted by MikeyFL
Member since Sep 2010
10326 posts
Posted on 5/10/26 at 5:11 pm to
What the fresh hell is this
Posted by Everyday Is Saturday
Member since Dec 2025
1460 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:28 am to
quote:

Betting on the…


The path to the 1st $1million is the hardest when investing. It is exponentially more difficult (read: unlikely) when starts with these 3 words.

quote:

How long should it take me to make my first million?


The no weather day may come first.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 12:47 am
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
33317 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 5:47 am to
Trying to take the time easy way. I’m shocked
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
150275 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 8:44 am to
If you ain’t cheating you ain’t trying
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