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re: The Great Recession of March 3,2025

Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:23 am to
Posted by fareplay
Member since Nov 2012
6306 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:23 am to
What’s 30% to 50% mean here

Is it 30% of whatever is in checking? Or 30% of your investment accounts or 30% of net worth
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
18742 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:26 am to


I had my shite in a bunch of different stuff the last 10 years then last year I moved out of bonds completely. Didn’t move a single dollar in 12 years up until last year and had most in target date, bonds, company I work for and a little S&P.

I never used to look at it and just let it do its thing. Returns don’t see bad for me the last 12 years for not knowing anything about investing.

I just have to remember not to panic sell and that I’m buying at a discount if it countinues to go down. I was up 5% on the year up until a few days ago.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 10:34 am
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
4326 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:38 am to
quote:

That is a stupid high cash reserve.
Not if you're in leveraged funds and part of your strategy is to have dry powder for dips.

On an unrelated note, I'm surprised at the number of worry warts in this thread.
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
18742 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Not if you're in leveraged funds and part of your strategy is to have dry powder for dips. On an unrelated note, I'm surprised at the number of worry warts in this thread.


I’m not really worried because I’m only 43 but there is a possibility of me being able to retire in the next 8 to 12 years so that’s the only thing that concerns me.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6445 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:53 am to
quote:

fareplay


farequestion.

It's what I have (and that amount grows) in my trade account. Simplified, 100K account, I would keep 30K to 50K in cash.

Let me be a little more clear. It's for stocks that have a big unjustified drop off too. Take my position in WST as an example.

Another example.. I own 100 shares (allows me to sell a call) of"XYZ" at $100 per share. I sell a call at the 105 worth $200. I made that plus if it goes to 105, I make another $500. But what if it dropped to $50 per share. I keep the $200, but calls above my entry are horrible. And if I sell say a 60 strike and it moves back to 90, I lost quiet a bit.

In that situation, if I have zero dollars to do anything, I am stuck until it rebounds.

If I have cash to buy 200 more shares at $50 (raising my total shares to 300), My entry point is lowered to $66.67 Now I can sell at the 67 or lower making profit.
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
4326 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 11:10 am to
quote:

I’m not really worried because I’m only 43 but there is a possibility of me being able to retire in the next 8 to 12 years so that’s the only thing that concerns me.
I retired six months ago, but I'm not worried.
Posted by fareplay
Member since Nov 2012
6306 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 11:15 am to
That’s a lot of cash on hand, I don’t do that but good for you.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6445 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 11:50 am to
quote:

That’s a lot of cash on hand, I don’t do that but good for you.



It is, but for me... it allows me to meet my goals with less stress/concern. That account strictly to make a monthly income that I determine. It's literally what it's for. If I can do that and hold that much cash for times like we have experienced since Dec, I'm happy. These lows make me a lot.
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
18742 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

I retired six months ago, but I'm not worried.


Are you still heavy in funds?
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
4326 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:13 pm to
Yep. My largest allocation is in TQQQ.
Posted by StonewallJack
Member since Apr 2008
933 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:21 pm to
Sell everything!!!
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
24999 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

I am still down $67,000 from 2/15, not over yet.


Let me update, fricking down $82,000 now. This market needs to take a damn chill and quit freaking out.
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
23407 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:10 pm to
I’m down close to 100k the last 2 weeks
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29303 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:14 pm to
Elections have consequences. Most importantly, primary elections have the most consequences.
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35461 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

That is a stupid high cash reserve. You are getting absolutely eaten up by inflation with this approach. At minimum, this all needs to be in a HYSA.
Ive recently jumped in to a really good defensive fund, ticker BTAL. It has a beta of -0.62. I get hyper-aggressive with 2/3 of my holdings (Bitcoin, QQQ, SMH etc) and a good chunk of the remainder goes into BTAL, USFR and gold.
Posted by eatpie
Kentucky
Member since Aug 2018
1576 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

I’m hearing some banks here have decided to only approve 1 out of every 3 farm loans.


Really? We're hearing most banks are approving farm loans at a higher rate.
Posted by SM1010
Member since Oct 2020
1280 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Without that incentive part on the domestic manufacutring side as well, all tariffs do is move the whole cost curve up without really changing much. Importing is more expensive, but still buying domestic is even more expensive. Ive been in manufacturing my whole career, this is all I'm seeing at the current moment and we are getting hammered with cost increases, but i believe the other side is coming and I'm on board with this.


Agree with this. Incentives are key. IMO tariffs aren't even necessary, just offer massive incentives. Tariffs just come off as a punishment/negative reinforcement and create resentment with trade partners which there's no need for.
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1490 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

Let me update, fricking down $82,000 now. This market needs to take a damn chill and quit freaking out.


As Kamala wouls say, "our portfolio's are unburdened from what has been.
Just playing with ya. Know what you mean. Late 70's I'm a stockbroker and we had a real estate downturn and the CEO of Planters Union in Memphis remarked, " we ain't broke but we sure are bent" Pretty much how I feel.
Posted by ChiGator
Member since Nov 2020
3923 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 8:38 pm to
Comments like these show the massive ignorance people have toward supply chain. Any company that relies on any type of material, commodity, ingredient etc outside of the US has to price the tariff in because most supply chains work a minimum month out if not more. Most companies can’t wait on Trumps uncertainty, they’re just going to bake the added COG into their P&L.

Edit: also this assumes companies have pricing power and can take on the extra cost. The other scenario and probably more likely is these transactions just get cancelled and lead to slow business and layoffs.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 9:03 pm
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58517 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

It ain't coming back no matter what. We are a nation of consumers, not producers.

dude this isn't true. There is a way


For instance, hypothetically, let's say i have a piece of property in a very desolate part of louisiana


It's a very beautiful area but because it isn't in a bedroom community of a city where people can commute for jobs in baton rouge or new orleans without driving more than an hour its all run down houses with able bodied people cashing government checks


build a washing machine factory there. you can teach the locals how to put the same 20 bolts in every machine on an assembly line and I do believe the higher ups would be down to live there on a spread because land is somewhat relatively cheap and amenities would come with the industrialization. It doesn't take much tariffing to beat slave labor if the average employee is making like 17 bucks an hour

I feel like we could even take the t shirt factories back from indonesia this way. The US should be self sufficient considering we are one of the few countries in the world that use washing machines or wear clothes or take medicine or whatever
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