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Message
prediction - stock market crash
Posted on 10/2/08 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 10/2/08 at 7:32 pm
A) Do you think we will have one? I know we have circuit breakers so it won't be as large as 29/87, but we could see a serious market dislocation.
b) When? This is a message board, pick a date/series of dates.
C) How much? How much are we going to lose?
For history,
In 1929, on October 28/29, we lost 23% of the value of the stock market.
In 1987, Oct 19th, we lost 22.6% of the value of the stock market.
Yes, both crashes were in the month of October. Both were early in the week.
Also keep in mind, while we had great rallies in 87 the rest of the week. So while it may crash, this might be a buying opportunity.
So make your predictions.
I am going with yes, we will have a crash. It will be a two day affair. We will shed 17% of the value of S&P 500 in that time period. As for dates, I am going with Oct 13/14.
** please note, I work in Fast Food, listen to me at your own fricking risk
b) When? This is a message board, pick a date/series of dates.
C) How much? How much are we going to lose?
For history,
In 1929, on October 28/29, we lost 23% of the value of the stock market.
In 1987, Oct 19th, we lost 22.6% of the value of the stock market.
Yes, both crashes were in the month of October. Both were early in the week.
Also keep in mind, while we had great rallies in 87 the rest of the week. So while it may crash, this might be a buying opportunity.
So make your predictions.
I am going with yes, we will have a crash. It will be a two day affair. We will shed 17% of the value of S&P 500 in that time period. As for dates, I am going with Oct 13/14.
** please note, I work in Fast Food, listen to me at your own fricking risk
This post was edited on 10/2/08 at 7:33 pm
9
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:05 am to MileHigh
I will enter into rank speculation and predict a slow collapse of the DJIA to 9100, perhaps reaching a low point in July.
I will go ahead and predict a low but positive growth year for U.S. GDP in 2009.
And to enter into your crazy unpredictable game for October, I will say that there will be 2 or 3 days with a 5-8% freefall or so, but nothing major relative to what we've already seen. S&P drops 6% for the month of October?
I really have no idea. All this stock market watching crap is new to me.
I will go ahead and predict a low but positive growth year for U.S. GDP in 2009.
And to enter into your crazy unpredictable game for October, I will say that there will be 2 or 3 days with a 5-8% freefall or so, but nothing major relative to what we've already seen. S&P drops 6% for the month of October?
I really have no idea. All this stock market watching crap is new to me.
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 12:09 am
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:15 am to MileHigh
I'll got but I really don't have a clue, just wanted to play.
crash-yes
when-it will be a crash on 10/20, dead cat bounce on the 21th, then crash again on the 1
22th. Net will be S&P 500 down 12% but will close down less than 10% for the week.
I'll add that by June of 2009 the S&P will be back to the same point it was in June of 2008.
crash-yes
when-it will be a crash on 10/20, dead cat bounce on the 21th, then crash again on the 1
22th. Net will be S&P 500 down 12% but will close down less than 10% for the week.
I'll add that by June of 2009 the S&P will be back to the same point it was in June of 2008.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 8:33 am to MileHigh
1. Yes.
2. Between 10/10 and 10/17
3. 2 major downlegs - the first will be 10% down, the second will be 20% with a 60% retrace of the first tankage in between.
2. Between 10/10 and 10/17
3. 2 major downlegs - the first will be 10% down, the second will be 20% with a 60% retrace of the first tankage in between.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:20 pm to Colonel Hapablap
20% (more) slide from now to late-spring, followed by five years of 3-5% returns.
Weak recession in 4Q '08, followed by three years of weak growth in the economy.
Weak recession in 4Q '08, followed by three years of weak growth in the economy.
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:26 pm to Parliament
quote:
10/10
10/13
10/20
Why all these post-bailout predictions of CRASH???
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:28 pm to Meauxjeaux
Because the bailout probably won't really help the credit markets unfreeze. Politicians intervening in the economy= bad news most of the time. We just pissed away 700 billion.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:29 pm to GeneralLee
Well it sure will help the bicycle and wooden arrow makers.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 12:46 pm to Meauxjeaux
No crash, slow slide down over next 18 months.
Bottom at around 8500.
Bottom at around 8500.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:04 pm to MileHigh
Crash-Oct. 21
cashless society
nwo
globalization
globalisation
cashless society
nwo
globalization
globalisation
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:14 pm to poboydressedplease
quote:
globalization
globalisation
Are these two different things?
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:24 pm to Joe
quote:
Are these two different things?
the former = NYT/WSJ
the latter = The Economist
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:25 pm to Joe
quote:
Are these two different things?
One is decidedly more European than the other.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:41 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Why all these post-bailout predictions of CRASH???
I figured it would take the market a week or two to figure out that the bailout plan sucks resulting in only higher taxes.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 1:58 pm to Pax Regis
quote:
One is decidedly more European than the other.
exactly
globalization U.S.
globalisation U.K.
nwo
BTW on my prediction
OCT 21 if not 2008
2009
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 10/3/08 at 2:22 pm to MileHigh
What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn
Did you find a directing sign
on the straight and narrow highway?
Would you mind a reflecting sign
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colours that are real
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Catch a painted pony
On the spinning wheel ride
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel fly
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn
Did you find a directing sign
on the straight and narrow highway?
Would you mind a reflecting sign
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colours that are real
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Catch a painted pony
On the spinning wheel ride
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel fly
Posted on 10/3/08 at 2:22 pm to poboydressedplease
quote:
globalization
globalisation
You're so colourful. What implications do you think this will have for spending on defence? Will this require new credit research centres?
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 10/3/08 at 2:48 pm to Doc Fenton
Crash and this is going to be a bad time. worse than we ever seen.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 2:51 pm to Cash
quote:
I figured it would take the market a week or two to figure out that the bailout plan sucks resulting in only higher taxes.
YOU MEAN WE DIDN'T FIX EVERYTHING?!?!?!?!?!?
Posted on 10/3/08 at 3:08 pm to MileHigh
No, never, market is too strong. Only losers panic and freak out. People in the know, buy buy buy when it corrects for a while like this.
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