re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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Time for the afternoon retreat? It likes to dump around this time of day

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The afternoon right before earnings come out in the AM may not be the best time to take profits...

Then again, it might be the best time. Who knows? Not me...

What’s going to happen to this with the NVDA news ?

Well, it definitely won’t be a tail wind.

Let’s beat and raise!!!

Don’t forget about the Anthropic IPO next Wednesday. Hopefully it’s not similar to spacex.

Cannot blame Jenson for NBIS lowering 2026 guidance for revenue.

I said in the summer there was no way in hell Vineland was on schedule - no way. I assume that is what the issue is given now that will be arriving late.

Really pisses me off to be honest - this could have been dealt with professionally in the summer when it came out - instead management played word games, ignored the obvious with Vineland, and said MSFT was being met. We could all see differently and here we sit.

The 2027 guide of $12-13 Million in revenue is much lower than I expected and I hope he is sandbagging (particularly when you add this on top of lowering 2026 revenue guidance).

$40 to $45 billion in capex, 75% covered in prepaids (which is great), the question will be where will the $10 billion come from in terms of dilution.

Sticking with my 1900 shares for the long term as I do think this will be a homerun, but man disappointed in how this was managed and presented.

Edit: There are some positives. The volume of prepayments and GPU payback down to 19 months is mega bullish long term.

Excluding ClickHouse and other subsidiary values (est. $8bn, arguably conservative)..

The market is placing a roughly $28b value on the core business. Nebius guide for 2027 is $12-13b revenues.

so I missed the first part of the earnings call unfortunately but caught the last half.

On the positive that revenue number is sandbagged - i have little doubts on that.

They definitely tried to throw their landlords under the bus which again has been the biggest bear thesis with NBIS is they do not own any data centers yet of material scale - they rent them. They are at the mercy of the data ones of
the world and their ability to meet deadlines. The data one CEO in the summer had no problem getting into a Twitter fight talking about how fricking amazing they are and can just switch power sources like it's nothing and then completely drops the ball.


Now the positive is Neves does have a lot of capacity that they will directly own under development. That puts execution more in their control and removes their third-party rental cost so margins should skyrocket. they were asked the perfect question to drive that point home and the lady that answered it completely dropped the ball and the first half of her answer in advertently was contra improving margins. Dumbfounded by this - I know there's some language challenges, but come on.

The 27 revenue projection includes zero new asset light deals so hopefully that's meaningful upside.

I think we're gonna take our lumps now and bluntly it's deserved because this was a management cluster frick in my opinion, in terms of messaging and delivery and communication - but the long-term upside which is ultimately what is really important is massive. Bullish but pissed - like I seem to be with all my stocks now lol

When I thought my $75 average was safe….